Brexit Phase Two - Trade

.......trade would be discussed in this two year hiatus but it is clear that the EU had no intention of reaching a trade deal, just the mechanics of leaving. Once that became clear we should have just banged out as it is also clear now that the EU elite don't even want the mechanics to be agreed as they see that as a route card for other nations.
Nail on head. That is currently my understanding, especially after the latest EU meeting.
This is why I voted out. The EU are not a democratic organisation. It's their way, or the highway. The UK used a democratic process to ask the people. The UK has tried to negotiate and still incorporate EU ways into the deals. The EU have shown themselves to be sneaky snakes!
I'm all for a hard Brexit now. No calling the EU bluff, just do it. And more trade negotiations with China and emerging economies that works in both trade partners favours.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
However to suggest that there will be just a little bit of turbulence is underestimating the situation. As a country we’re up to our eye balls in debt.

If there is no money on the magic money tree bills won’t get paid.
The state of the UK's debt is independent of our EU membership and is related to the inability of successive governments to keep public spending to a level we - as a country - can afford. Labour in particular believe in the magic money tree. Witness Brown's totally irresponsible spending in the last Labour government - which left us the largest ever peacetime public spending deficit..

Incidentally, we have less debt than a good few countries in the euro - some of which are going to be in deep smeg come the next recession.
This could potentially be crisis management at a huge level. That’s not project fear that’s a watered down message from the head of the Bank of England who’s starting to wobble.
On the other hand life could go on much as before. The business I work for (a small multinational) is equally prepared for a soft or a hard Brexit. and is remarkably unfussed about either.

The sky is falling, the sky is falling....
The EU are out to get us, if you think they won’t try to kick us when we’re down your mad.
Why should we want to belong to an organisation that would want to kick us when we're down? That also implies the EU didn't have our best interests at heart while we were members either.
Britain crashes out of world's top 5 economies
Whoopy do!!! Our GDP is now the 6th largest economy in the word with an annual GDP £100 million less than France's.

The sky is falling, the sky is falling.....

Wordsmith
 
Again that’s a fair point and the only answer I can give is the EU have planned for a no deal scenario from the start and are starting to apply the pressure with six moths to go.
they haven't. They planned on a second referendum reversing the leave decision. As they were told that the UK people would want a second vote by useful idiots and those seeking to feather their own nests.
 
maybe, maybe not. We're still leaving though.
Let me make a prediction seeing as I was right about the leave vote and Trump winning in USA. There will be no deal as such. There will be massive discontent with the current crop of failures we call politicians. They will point the finger at those who voted leave and say “it’s your fault”. This will open the door to the right who ate the only group that will win.

Scotland, well I think that’s a given.
 
Let me make a prediction seeing as I was right about the leave vote and Trump winning in USA. There will be no deal as such. There will be massive discontent with the current crop of failures we call politicians. They will point the finger at those who voted leave and say “it’s your fault”. This will open the door to the right who ate the only group that will win.

Scotland, well I think that’s a given.
you're no Nostradamus. I'll give you that.
 
Your words are sound in principe.

However to suggest that there will be just a little bit of turbulence is underestimating the situation. As a country we’re up to our eye balls in debt.

If there is no money on the magic money tree bills won’t get paid.

This could potentially be crisis management at a huge level. That’s not project fear that’s a watered down message from the head of the Bank of England who’s starting to wobble.

The EU are out to get us, if you think they won’t try to kick us when we’re down your mad.

Britain crashes out of world's top 5 economies
Sadly, the Chancellor, BoE Manager and his assorted cabal of rich pampered Remain cronies seem to assume in all their calculations (project Fear version XX) that all trade with the EU will simply stop and the UK will from that point onwards only trade with the rest of the World

- that assumption is patently false and nonsensical.! Even on a 'crash out' Brexit, significant trade between the UK and EU will continue in some shape or form and will not be the total loss to the UK economy that Christine Laggard (convicted Fraudest) from the IMF etc try to make out.

Why am I so confident? simply because without UK trade, EU businesses will go to the wall!!! - I'm also extremely confident (based on historical events) that ANY move to cut off trade with the UK would cause immediate and politically devastating National Strike (violent) action in France and Germany

Unfortunately, our political leaders have been convinced otherwise by backroom schemers like Olly Robbins who are actually working for EU against their own country and have become stove-piped down one unworkable option. Sadly, this option is more designed to appease the EU than look after the UKs best interests. The shocking lack of leadership from our political elite and inability to make strategic and strong decisions, when it is needed, has never been more apparent!
 
The state of the UK's debt is independent of our EU membership and is related to the inability of successive governments to keep public spending to a level we - as a country - can afford. Labour in particular believe in the magic money tree. Witness Brown's totally irresponsible spending in the last Labour government - which left us the largest ever peacetime public spending deficit..

Incidentally, we have less debt than a good few countries in the euro - some of which are going to be in deep smeg come the next recession.


On the other hand life could go on much as before. The business I work for (a small multinational) is equally prepared for a soft or a hard Brexit. and is remarkably unfussed about either.

The sky is falling, the sky is falling....


Why should we want to belong to an organisation that would want to kick us when we're down? That also implies the EU didn't have our best interests at heart while we were members either.

Whoopy do!!! Our GDP is now the 6th largest economy in the word with an annual GDP £100 million less than France's.

The sky is falling, the sky is falling.....

Wordsmith
No one is suggesting the sky is falling. Yes there are company’s who won’t be affected over a hard brexit. There are also very many who will go straight under if it falls apart.

Much like leaving the military old chap once your out the door it’s shut firmly in your face and your forgotten about.

Hard brexit won’t affect my business, so bring it on I say. Just hope your happy to tell those who may potentially lose their jobs to shut up and remind them what they voted for.

To quote the words of Macron yesterday “ British politicians who promised that Brexit will make Britain richer were liers” doesn’t sound like a man who is interested in striking a deal.
 
they haven't. They planned on a second referendum reversing the leave decision. As they were told that the UK people would want a second vote by useful idiots and those seeking to feather their own nests.
Bang on!! that is exactly what Clarke, Clegg and Adonis were doing when the BBC reporter caught them sneaking into to the EU for a meeting with Barnier to 'find out what's happening with Brexit' - I wish someone in power would authorise a review of all e-mails/texts of Soubray, Adonis, Clarke, Morgan etc etc to see what was being arranged and by whom!
 
There will be turbulence when we leave - systems will have to change. But the basic pattern of trading will go in much as before. As such, although I expect a dip in economic activity in the 3 - 6 months after we leave the EU (if we hard Brexit), I do not expect it to be serious or sustained.

After that, the long term outcome for the UK is going to be entirely defined by the abilities and competence of the politicians at Westminster. No more can they hide behind "the EU won't allow us". They are now going to have to take big decisions and be directly accountable to the electorate for them.

The pig's ear that May has made of Brexit shows how hard it is going to be for some of those politicians to make the correct decisions.

Nevertheless I'm broadly optimistic about the future prospects for the UK. My views on the euro and the impending fuster cluck are well known - we've distanced ourselves from that looming problem. We've gained the ability to shape the UK purely in the UK's interests - we no longer have to fit into the EU's 'one size fits all' model. And last - and perhaps most important - we can now sign our own trade deals with any country in the world, giving the prospect of increased exports.

Wordsmith
I’ve just been with City analysts talking cash this morning and the comment was sit tight for 3-6 months after the button is pressed as they are expecting a bit of turbulence but everything will be fine after that.

Same pattern as the day after the vote to BrEXIT, only this time he City knows what’s coming
 
Sadly, the Chancellor, BoE Manager and his assorted cabal of rich pampered Remain cronies seem to assume in all their calculations (project Fear version XX) that all trade with the EU will simply stop and the UK will from that point onwards only trade with the rest of the World

- that assumption is patently false and nonsensical.! Even on a 'crash out' Brexit, significant trade between the UK and EU will continue in some shape or form and will not be the total loss to the UK economy that Christine Laggard (convicted Fraudest) from the IMF etc try to make out.

Why am I so confident? simply because without UK trade, EU businesses will go to the wall!!! - I'm also extremely confident (based on historical events) that ANY move to cut off trade with the UK would cause immediate and politically devastating National Strike (violent) action in France and Germany

Unfortunately, our political leaders have been convinced otherwise by backroom schemers like Olly Robbins who are actually working for EU against their own country and have become stove-piped down one unworkable option. Sadly, this option is more designed to appease the EU than look after the UKs best interests. The shocking lack of leadership from our political elite and inability to make strategic and strong decisions, when it is needed, has never been more apparent!
Agreed, Germany will protect the single market no matter what the cost. Not only had there been shocking lack of leadership, those who stood on the side shouting have now walked away.

Seems our only true ally in this is Poland. A hard Brexit would be devastating for them. It would probably affect the one million poles in the UK.

If Poland side with the EU we will know it’s going to be a ruff ride.
 
Immigration was only one of a multitude of factors and was only of interest to a section of brexiteers. That has not stopped Remainers using that as an issue and blowing it out of all proportion.

IMO immigration will always be a factor when travel is so easy and was not included in any of the reasons that I voted leave for! You may notice that immigration is seldom mentioned by brexiteers, but often by Remainers - that speaks volumes!
Ditto blue passports!!
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
To quote the words of Macron yesterday “ British politicians who promised that Brexit will make Britain richer were liers” doesn’t sound like a man who is interested in striking a deal.
Exactly.

The EU needs another treaty to stop the euro falling in a heap in the next recession. The UK leaving has made that treaty less likely - it is now clear there is an alternative to 'ever closer political and economic integration'.

A UK that has painlessly left the Eu and prospered outside of it would also be an invitation for other countries to follow the trail we've blazed, further weakening the EU.

The EU is fully aware it faces deep seated and long term problems. They're lashing out at a country in the process of showing that the EU emperor has no clothes.

Wordsmith
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
No one is suggesting the sky is falling. Yes there are company’s who won’t be affected over a hard brexit. There are also very many who will go straight under if it falls apart.
Really - and your hard, verifiable evidence of that? Links to reports from well regarded economists would be a good start.

Or are you jut running around crying 'the sky is falling' without the evidence to back it up?

Wordsmith
 
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Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I’ve just been with City analysts talking cash this morning and the comment was sit tight for 3-6 months after the button is pressed as they are expecting a bit of turbulence but everything will be fine after that.
Pretty much my feeling too. Much of the hysteria is coming from politicians or media commentators with minimal practical experience of business.

When you look at some of the more hysterical pronouncements, they tend to come from the Remain echo chamber with one Remainer seizing another Remainer's latest outbreak of panic as a justification for their own hysteria. The perfect feedback loop.

Hard, reasoned analysis seems in short supply.

Wordsmith
 

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