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Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Another piece from the Guardian which does not exactly paint the EU in a good light

Brexit: May humiliated by Salzburg ambush as she fights to save Chequers

Is the Guardian in the process of changing their allegiance? That article could have been a Daily Express one which would have brought the Remainers frothing to the keyboard.

The article is of course accurate and no doubt it won't be long before TG are printing articles that point out the EU are in the process of punishing the UK for leaving the Borg rather than negotiating a withdrawal agreement! ;)
the problem is may, and other remaINers, think that the eu are out friends...

hopefully they are beginning to read the memos.

or in @Graculus' case, the tw@ats.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
2. We’re leaving, it could turn out OK, then you all get to gloat and take the moral high ground, or it could be an absolute cluster and destroy the economy, or somewhere in between.
There will be turbulence when we leave - systems will have to change. But the basic pattern of trading will go in much as before. As such, although I expect a dip in economic activity in the 3 - 6 months after we leave the EU (if we hard Brexit), I do not expect it to be serious or sustained.

After that, the long term outcome for the UK is going to be entirely defined by the abilities and competence of the politicians at Westminster. No more can they hide behind "the EU won't allow us". They are now going to have to take big decisions and be directly accountable to the electorate for them.

The pig's ear that May has made of Brexit shows how hard it is going to be for some of those politicians to make the correct decisions.

Nevertheless I'm broadly optimistic about the future prospects for the UK. My views on the euro and the impending fuster cluck are well known - we've distanced ourselves from that looming problem. We've gained the ability to shape the UK purely in the UK's interests - we no longer have to fit into the EU's 'one size fits all' model. And last - and perhaps most important - we can now sign our own trade deals with any country in the world, giving the prospect of increased exports.

Wordsmith
 
Best take money with you then - it’s a cash economy as italy’s HMRC takes VAT up front in an annual payment based on their estimate of what you owe and because business haven’t got the cash flow to pay, they go to the banks to borrow and the banks won’t lend them the cash........ so no one does business other than by cash, so the Italian HMRC can’t find out what their real turnover is, and round they go in circles....

I was talking to an Italian lad 2 nights ago about why italy is in the shit and he told me how their economy works. See above!!
Sounds like a great idea. I bet every receipt in Italy goes in the bin. VAT collection is a total pain.
 
There will be turbulence when we leave - systems will have to change. But the basic pattern of trading will go in much as before. As such, although I expect a dip in economic activity in the 3 - 6 months after we leave the EU (if we hard Brexit), I do not expect it to be serious or sustained.

After that, the long term outcome for the UK is going to be entirely defined by the abilities and competence of the politicians at Westminster. No more can they hide behind "the EU won't allow us". They are now going to have to take big decisions and be directly accountable to the electorate for them.

The pig's ear that May has made of Brexit shows how hard it is going to be for some of those politicians to make the correct decisions.

Nevertheless I'm broadly optimistic about the future prospects for the UK. My views on the euro and the impending fuster cluck are well known - we've distanced ourselves from that looming problem. We've gained the ability to shape the UK purely in the UK's interests - we no longer have to fit into the EU's 'one size fits all' model. And last - and perhaps most important - we can now sign our own trade deals with any country in the world, giving the prospect of increased exports.

Wordsmith
Your words are sound in principe.

However to suggest that there will be just a little bit of turbulence is underestimating the situation. As a country we’re up to our eye balls in debt.

If there is no money on the magic money tree bills won’t get paid.

This could potentially be crisis management at a huge level. That’s not project fear that’s a watered down message from the head of the Bank of England who’s starting to wobble.

The EU are out to get us, if you think they won’t try to kick us when we’re down your mad.

Britain crashes out of world's top 5 economies
 
After that, the long term outcome for the UK is going to be entirely defined by the abilities and competence of the politicians at Westminster. No more can they hide behind "the EU won't allow us". They are now going to have to take big decisions and be directly accountable to the electorate for them.
it's going to be great.

no more ppe wonks I'd wager.
 
actually a cr*p deal could be the fault of those who wanted to stay. Some of them have been a little Machiavellian.

there's no 'facts' that remaINing would have secured jobs. baby's

leaving is good for the country. People playing for the eu side has not been good.

dry your eyes and stop dripping.
So is the latest plan for Brexiteers to blame remainers if (I wanted to put when, but that'd be a wind up) things go pear shaped. IMO you can blame us if we remain in and something awful happens, otherwise it's your baby.
 
It might as well to point out that being insular has all to do with living on an Island. Every group in this country came from the continent, they have had to adapt to Island living, that does not mean they forget their continental origins. It's the Island that changes people, people do not change the Island. Continentals have no concept of insularity except perhaps the Swiss and they don't do things the same way either.

Continentals look at their next door neighbour… Islanders look to the far horizons
 
Your words are sound in principe.

However to suggest that there will be just a little bit of turbulence is underestimating the situation. As a country we’re up to our eye balls in debt.

If there is no money on the magic money tree bills won’t get paid.

This could potentially be crisis management at a huge level. That’s not project fear that’s a watered down message from the head of the Bank of England who’s starting to wobble.

The EU are out to get us, if you think they won’t try to kick us when we’re down your mad.

Britain crashes out of world's top 5 economies
Top five is irrelevant. We're in the top 8 and that isn't going to change.

carney, I'm not sure about him. Who's side is he actually on?

leavers have been saying that the eu aren't the bearers remaINers think they are for years.
 
If it is any consolation . . . the humiliation of seeing the UK's and PMTM negotiating positions slip-sliding-away, makes me very prepared to support a UK (eventual) decision to just walk away, and persue a "Hard BREXIT".

If one were to view the situation positively, one might conclude that the Govt were/are - in fact - preparing us, positioning us, for that very outcome!! . . . the Govt being able to turn round and justifiably say "We tried everything. We were reasonable. We have no alternative"!

;) .
Re-post of a suggestion originally voiced 20 JULY 2018 . . .

If it is any consolation . . . the humiliation of seeing the UK's and PMTM negotiating positions slip-sliding-away, makes me very prepared to support a UK (eventual) decision to just walk away, and persue a "Hard BREXIT".

If one were to view the situation positively, one might conclude that the Govt were/are - in fact - preparing us, positioning us, for that very outcome!! . . . the Govt being able to turn round and justifiably say "We tried everything. We were reasonable. We have no alternative"!
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
So is the latest plan for Brexiteers to blame remainers if (I wanted to put when, but that'd be a wind up) things go pear shaped. IMO you can blame us if we remain in and something awful happens, otherwise it's your baby.
I'm not going to blame Remainers if brexit goes tits-up; no, I blame Remainers now! And I include May in the remain camp as she has shown that while saying brexit means brexit she, and Olly, actually have worked hard to keep the UK as deep in the EU as possible!
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
EU unity is facing very tough times, Poland & Hungary unhappy at Brussels Brexit approach (no shiote Sherlock)

Poland breaks ranks from EU Brexit unity

Summary: purple pi$$ and all that..
Poland and Hungary are royally pi$$ed off at the European Commission for what they regard as unwarranted interference in their internal affairs. Poland in particular is currently the subject of Article 7 proceedings to strip it of its voting rights in the EU.

As a result, when the EU tries to bring in a new treaty post-Brexit to transfer further rights to the EU from the member states in an attempt to shore up the euro, the response from those two countries (and a number of others) is predictably going to be Foxtrot Oscar, leaving the EU politically deadlocked and unable to move forward.

Wordsmith
 
I'm not going to blame Remainers if brexit goes tits-up; no, I blame Remainers now! And I include May in the remain camp as she has shown that while saying brexit means brexit she, and Olly, actually have worked hard to keep the UK as deep in the EU as possible!
Just shows the paranoia. May says we’ll be out next March. You voted for out. There was no description of this out. So you’ll get what you asked for. What are us remainers supposed to take the blame for?
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
Your words are sound in principe.

However to suggest that there will be just a little bit of turbulence is underestimating the situation. As a country we’re up to our eye balls in debt.

If there is no money on the magic money tree bills won’t get paid.

This could potentially be crisis management at a huge level. That’s not project fear that’s a watered down message from the head of the Bank of England who’s starting to wobble.

The EU are out to get us, if you think they won’t try to kick us when we’re down your mad.

Britain crashes out of world's top 5 economies
Any chance of posting links that are less than a year old?

Wiki shows we are still 5th. World economy - Wikipedia
But may not be 100% accurate although it is open to amendment.

ETA: This link from Aug 18 still has UK at the 5th posn.

The World's Top 20 Economies
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
Just shows the paranoia. May says we’ll be out next March. You voted for out. There was no description of this out. So you’ll get what you asked for. What are us remainers supposed to take the blame for?
That is exactly what I voted for so I will be pleased when it happens.

I must admit that I thought that trade would be discussed in this two year hiatus but it is clear that the EU had no intention of reaching a trade deal, just the mechanics of leaving. Once that became clear we should have just banged out as it is also clear now that the EU elite don't even want the mechanics to be agreed as they see that as a route card for other nations.
 
Your words are sound in principe.

However to suggest that there will be just a little bit of turbulence is underestimating the situation. As a country we’re up to our eye balls in debt.

If there is no money on the magic money tree bills won’t get paid.

This could potentially be crisis management at a huge level. That’s not project fear that’s a watered down message from the head of the Bank of England who’s starting to wobble.

The EU are out to get us, if you think they won’t try to kick us when we’re down your mad.

Britain crashes out of world's top 5 economies
It's an interesting idea that the EU want to 'punish' the UK and 'kick us when we're down', but that is overlooking the simple reality of globalism and inter dependence.

It's often pointed out on here that economic turmoil in the Eurozone will have a detrimental effect on the UK, but overlooked or ignored that economic turmoil in the UK will be detrimental to the EU.

No matter how much you hate your neighbour, if his adjoining apartment catches fire the problem isn't his alone.
 
Brexit began as a bad headache and is now displaying symptoms of brain cancer.
Idiots dream of making the UK this great independent power, as if it’s the 1800s.

Nostalgic dreams that simply do not work in the era of cyberwarfare, global warming and nuclear proliferation.

All we are doing is groping towards a solution. No real clarity yet.

So let’s pause and think for a moment. Brexit is going to swap preferential movement of people within the EU for preferential movement with India and every other country they want a trade deal with.
So was immigration never really an issue and the talk about it lowering wages etc... all bunkum?
If it is a genuine concern among the public, new trade deals are going to be difficult, not only through having to compete with the EU, but potentially from brexiters opposed to free movement of people from outside the UK.
I mean, having to open borders to other nations in return for trade deals is hardly taking back control. Why not just work with the EU and help tighten EU borders instead?

It looks as though the EU will be tightening borders with a 10000 strong border patrol unit and the UK will be opening theirs up completely at the expense of trade routes with the EU who wont want free movement of people from an open border UK
 

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