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Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Sixty

ADC
Moderator
Book Reviewer
Dastardly continentals! Doing...um...exactly what they said they'd do all along. It's just not sporting!
 
The EU has signalled Canada Plus is acceptable to it. So now May has two options: Canada Plus or Hard Brexit.

Canada Plus is also acceptable to the Brexit wing of the Tory party, meaning May can get it through parliament.

Brexit explained: What is a Canada style Brexit trade deal? Will David Davis get his way?


This has been obvious for several months. May is being spectacularly stupid. Politics is the art of the possible, not the impossible.

Wordsmith

There are, of course, other options.
 
May has been spectacularly humiliated by the EU - even Call Me Dave came back with a fig leaf of 'concessions' prior to the Brexit vote.

The EU knows she is in a very weak position at home and at the back of their minds must be the hope that May is forced to resign as PM, the government falls, there is a GE and Brexit is halted.

That is a spectacularly bad misreading of British politics. Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, there are only two ways a GE can be called:
  • If 2/3 of the house vote for a GE.
  • If the government loses a vote of confidence
Option 1 is a non-starter - the Tories will never support it - they'd lose at this stage of the electoral cycle.
Neither are the Tories likely to lose a vote of confidence as long as the DUP continues to support them. Neither the Tories nor the DUP want to see a Corbyn led, Sinn Fein supporting Labour government in office.

The most likely scenario now is is a last minute May/EU fudge that is not acceptable to Westminster and gets rejected there, leaving no time to negotiate an alternative. As a result the most likely alternative is now a hard Brexit.

Wordsmith
Are you in favour of a disastrous exit?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
You can't fix stupid as PMTM is finding out.

Her own party & the EU reject Chequers yet she's still sticking to her 'yellow brick road'.
The Tory conference starts this Saturday. She's stupid enough to keep banging on about Chequers there - an idea highly unpopular with party activists. We could well see a serving Tory Prime Minister on the end of a slow hand clap. And that would be heaping humiliation upon humiliation.

I suspect she's also going to face a near rebellion in cabinet. I can see a change of course being forced upon her and Olly Robbins resigning "to spend more time with his family".

There is no way for PMTM to recover now, and when she's forced to resign next spring, it'll be a mercy killing.

Wordsmith
 
The Tory conference starts this Saturday. She's stupid enough to keep banging on about Chequers there - an idea highly unpopular with party activists. We could well see a serving Tory Prime Minister on the end of a slow hand clap. And that would be heaping humiliation upon humiliation.

I suspect she's also going to face a near rebellion in cabinet. I can see a change of course being forced upon her and Olly Robbins resigning "to spend more time with his family".

There is no way for PMTM to recover now, and when she's forced to resign next spring, it'll be a mercy killing.

Wordsmith
I think Dominic Rabb would be relieved to see Olly Robins resign. Long overdue and allow less interference as well obstinate.

In the current climate The Tory conference reception will be interesting one.

Sent from my SM-A500FU using Tapatalk
 
The Tory conference starts this Saturday. She's stupid enough to keep banging on about Chequers there - an idea highly unpopular with party activists. We could well see a serving Tory Prime Minister on the end of a slow hand clap. And that would be heaping humiliation upon humiliation.

I suspect she's also going to face a near rebellion in cabinet. I can see a change of course being forced upon her and Olly Robbins resigning "to spend more time with his family".

There is no way for PMTM to recover now, and when she's forced to resign next spring, it'll be a mercy killing.

Wordsmith

When is this futile internal Tory bunfight going to stop deciding the future of the UK?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
There's no mandate for such nonsense.
Hard Brexit happens automatically on 29th March if no deal has been signed. And as @History_Man has pointed out, negotiations have to be finished by the end of November for the legislation to pass Westminster.

The joker in the pack is the European parliament, which also has to approve the deal. I would not be surprised to see them reject the plan, throwing things further into confusion.

Wordsmith
 
Hard Brexit happens automatically on 29th March if no deal has been signed. And as @History_Man has pointed out, negotiations have to be finished by the end of November for the legislation to pass Westminster.

The joker in the pack is the European parliament, which also has to approve the deal. I would not be surprised to see them reject the plan, throwing things further into confusion.

Wordsmith

Are you in favour of a hard Brexit?
 
shut up about mandates.

I've noticed it's generally trotted out by those with their backs to the wall.

the vote was leave.

I'd hard leaving is the only leaving option available, then it's hard exiting time.
There is no mandate for it.
 

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