Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
Nothing about this yet?

You mean this?

Brexit vote watchdog 'got law wrong'

It will be interesting to see if the Commission appeal this decision. Either way, there will be changes in the composition of the Commission, so it looks like some failed politicians and hangers on will lose a place at the trough.
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
Labour has just ensured May is well and truly fecked.

Labour will reject any Brexit deal based on Theresa May's Chequers plan, says Emily Thornberry


It was an obvious strategy. It leaves May with nowhere to go except a massive and humiliating U-turn. She needed Labour support to get Chequers through and now the ERG know they can block it. From the Labour perspective, they hope to engineer May's resignation out of it and then claim a GE is essential.

Another question is how the EU plays this. Do they subtly try and avoid offering even Canada plus in the hope that a no-deal scenario will cause the fall of the government, a GE and a Labour government that will offer another referendum that will reverse Brexit.

Or do they offer Canada plus.

My money say Barnier and Juncker go for the first of those alternatives in the hopes of keeping the UK in the EU. I suspect that'll be a major mistake - the Tories + the DUP will vote 'no deal' through the Commons rather than see a GE and Corbyn in power. Which will result in both the EU and the UK being worse off than if they offered Canada plus.

Wordsmith
That’s the obvious strategy, which you were hours late to the party with (and remainers have been battering away at Labour to do, for months). If they’ve finally come up with this at this stage. It looks like the background talks and number crunching have produced something particularly ground breaking.

I’m sure there’s some on here better far better connected nodding quietly.
Another unintended consequence, there’s a lot of it about.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
And the writing is ever more on the wall for May..

Theresa May should quit after Brexit and hand over to a 'new generation leader', says senior Tory MP
Theresa May should quit as Tory leader after Brexit day and hand over the torch to a “new generation leader” untainted by the EU referendum, her former policy chief has said.

George Freeman, a Tory MP and former minister, said Mrs May should step down after March 2019 having taken the UK out of the European Union. Her successor would then be tasked with shaping Britain’s long term future with the bloc.
That's code for "you've made a complete bollox of the negotiations and split the party in the process. Step down after Brexit and allow someone more competent to position us for the 2022 GE."

At the moment, May is going supported by the Remain wing of the party because they have no wish to see her replaced by someone who would take a harder line in the Brexit negotiations. However, once we're out of the EU, both wings of the party will be focused on making the best of Brexit and winning the 2022 GE. Both wings of the party then have a shared interest in getting May out. At that point she is:
1536946557727.jpeg

Wordsmith
 
I suspect the Chequers fudge (fudge still unknown) will get through Parliament. There will be some Labour MPs who will vote for it, and some who abstain. The ERG are simply a pressure group, and if Chequers fudge is presented as a deal, they have failed. Most will fall in line, some may abstain.

May still has cards to play. She can threaten a GE, or Art 50 extension, and the ERG don't want either.

On the other hand, a Canada Plus agreement may emerge. No Deal is the least likeliest option.
 
The Europeans were involved in the peace building process since the 70s.
There’s a whole story there if you’d care to look.



Nobody mentioned loyalists. Tbh in the great scheme of things the loyalists weren’t really that important. Keep them locked up,and if the rest of them caused any trouble lock them up too.
They would go along with what ever deal they were offered.
Get out of jail?
Stay in jail ?
Which way do you think they formed the orderly queue.
Skid have you any links to show Europe trying to find a peaceful resolution in Northern Ireland during the 70's
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I suspect the Chequers fudge (fudge still unknown) will get through Parliament. There will be some Labour MPs who will vote for it, and some who abstain. The ERG are simply a pressure group, and if Chequers fudge is presented as a deal, they have failed. Most will fall in line, some may abstain.

May still has cards to play. She can threaten a GE, or Art 50 extension, and the ERG don't want either.

On the other hand, a Canada Plus agreement may emerge. No Deal is the least likeliest option.
The chequers fudge has to get past the EU yet, and Barnier has been clearly signalling his preference for Canada plus. It's win/win from Barnier's perspective.
  • Refusing Chequers will deepen May's problems with an outside chance of a GE and Brexit being reversed.
  • If May stays in power he can point out he rejected Chequers and imposed the EU's preferred Canada plus solution on her.
May won't threaten a GE. Based on 2017, she'd lose it. And trying to call one would destroy the last vestiges of support she has in the Tory party - too many MP's would see their seats at risk.

I doubt she'd ask for an Article 50 extension either. The EU would want its pound of flesh for agreeing to it - like agreeing to pay the Brexit bill whatever the outcome of the talks. And that again would be political suicide for May.

May has painted herself into a corner over Brexit - her strategy was never going to fly. It's her own doing and there's no way out except Canada plus.

She's also going to go into the history books as one of the worst Tory PM's ever and will be out of No. 10 shortly after Brexit.

Not a glittering performance...

Wordsmith
 
The chequers fudge has to get past the EU yet, and Barnier has been clearly signalling his preference for Canada plus. It's win/win from Barnier's perspective.
  • Refusing Chequers will deepen May's problems with an outside chance of a GE and Brexit being reversed.
  • If May stays in power he can point out he rejected Chequers and imposed the EU's preferred Canada plus solution on her.
May won't threaten a GE. Based on 2017, she'd lose it. And trying to call one would destroy the last vestiges of support she has in the Tory party - too many MP's would see their seats at risk.

I doubt she'd ask for an Article 50 extension either. The EU would want its pound of flesh for agreeing to it - like agreeing to pay the Brexit bill whatever the outcome of the talks. And that again would be political suicide for May.

May has painted herself into a corner over Brexit - her strategy was never going to fly. It's her own doing and there's no way out except Canada plus.

She's also going to go into the history books as one of the worst Tory PM's ever and will be out of No. 10 shortly after Brexit.

Not a glittering performance...

Wordsmith
Chequers is merely the starting point. I'd expect further concessions and wouldn't be surprised by an extension of Art 50 dependent on the UK not having pissed off the other 27 members excessively.
 
She's also going to go into the history books as one of the worst Tory PM's ever and will be out of No. 10 shortly after Brexit.
This is in no way intended as wishing a perverse outcome but I wouldn't be at all surprised if she shuffled off of this mortal within five years or so of leaving office. She is an ill woman with a serious underlying medical condition and the stress of both High Office and Brexit will have physically weakened her. I cannot see her living to a ripe old age.
 

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
We cannot unilaterally declare an A50 extension. It would have to be unanimously agreed by all EU member countries.
 

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