Brexit Phase Two - Trade

More this bit.


If the Turkish economy goes splat, the splat, those banks might need a bail out. Only, after changes to the EU banking regulations, the initial hit will be taken by the investors. The regulation is basically sensible, meant to stop investors piling money into financial risk institutions.

But the law of unintended consequences could come into effect. If investors are hit hard in the aftermath of a Turkish crash, European banks will find it difficult to raise capital.

One of the many benefits of Brexit will be the ability to watch the impact of EU regulations from the sidelines, decide if they're beneficial or not and - if necessary - modify UK banking regulations to avoid the worst pitfalls of the European ones.

The EU won't have that luxury as changes to the banking regulations will have to be agreed by all 27 member states - a long and tedious process. And unlike the UK - who can tailor its regulation to suit the UK alone - the EU regulations will have to be one size fits all.

Wordsmith

Let's hope Turkey doesn't go splat too soon, then.
 

Auld-Yin

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The EU are probably hoping hard that if the Turkish lira does go tits up then it should be now so they can sting the UK treasury to help pay much of it - we ain't left yet!
 
More this bit.


If the Turkish economy goes splat, the splat, those banks might need a bail out. Only, after changes to the EU banking regulations, the initial hit will be taken by the investors. The regulation is basically sensible, meant to stop investors piling money into financial risk institutions.

But the law of unintended consequences could come into effect. If investors are hit hard in the aftermath of a Turkish crash, European banks will find it difficult to raise capital.

One of the many benefits of Brexit will be the ability to watch the impact of EU regulations from the sidelines, decide if they're beneficial or not and - if necessary - modify UK banking regulations to avoid the worst pitfalls of the European ones.

The EU won't have that luxury as changes to the banking regulations will have to be agreed by all 27 member states - a long and tedious process. And unlike the UK - who can tailor its regulation to suit the UK alone - the EU regulations will have to be one size fits all.

Wordsmith
And the UK banks (HSBC UK in particular) and insurance companies (Aviva one of the biggest) who have considerable investments tied up in Turkey?
It's only the EU banks (and if you read the financial gurus on this it's not that big a deal) that are going to be hurt while UK sits on the sidelines and feels no pain with regards to Turkey or the EU banks it has considerable investments in?

Your wishful thinking may have some unintended consequences. Just be careful what you wish for.
 
Are you REALLY that dense?
Growth is relative. If Borat in a village in Romania is twice as rich next year, thats 100% growth per capita GDP, he's still piss poor by western European standards

"…Over a quarter of Romania’s population lives on less than US$5.50 a day, the highest poverty rate in the EU.…"

Romania: Thriving cities, rural poverty, and a trust deficit
We've only been telling you that since the referendum ya bollix, those countries are the ones we're going to grow our trade with.

Glad to see you've spotted the flaw in the plan.
 

Auld-Yin

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Excuse the Twitter feed, Bloombergs latest complete with sense of humour (yes,they have one)


Sent from my SM-A500FU using Tapatalk
Send it by carrier pigeon, they may get it then.
 
More this bit.


If the Turkish economy goes splat, the splat, those banks might need a bail out. Only, after changes to the EU banking regulations, the initial hit will be taken by the investors. The regulation is basically sensible, meant to stop investors piling money into financial risk institutions.

But the law of unintended consequences could come into effect. If investors are hit hard in the aftermath of a Turkish crash, European banks will find it difficult to raise capital.

One of the many benefits of Brexit will be the ability to watch the impact of EU regulations from the sidelines, decide if they're beneficial or not and - if necessary - modify UK banking regulations to avoid the worst pitfalls of the European ones.

The EU won't have that luxury as changes to the banking regulations will have to be agreed by all 27 member states - a long and tedious process. And unlike the UK - who can tailor its regulation to suit the UK alone - the EU regulations will have to be one size fits all.

Wordsmith
Just a minor quibble: your last clause should read:

the Eu regulations will have to be sized so that they fit only Germany and France.

No offence :D
 
More this bit.


If the Turkish economy goes splat, the splat, those banks might need a bail out. Only, after changes to the EU banking regulations, the initial hit will be taken by the investors. The regulation is basically sensible, meant to stop investors piling money into financial risk institutions.

But the law of unintended consequences could come into effect. If investors are hit hard in the aftermath of a Turkish crash, European banks will find it difficult to raise capital.

One of the many benefits of Brexit will be the ability to watch the impact of EU regulations from the sidelines, decide if they're beneficial or not and - if necessary - modify UK banking regulations to avoid the worst pitfalls of the European ones.

The EU won't have that luxury as changes to the banking regulations will have to be agreed by all 27 member states - a long and tedious process. And unlike the UK - who can tailor its regulation to suit the UK alone - the EU regulations will have to be one size fits all.

Wordsmith
Cheers Mr King.

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If Turkey implodes, here's who else gets hurt

It isn't in anyone's interest for Turkey to implode, least of all ours long term and strategically.
 
Obviously, though that failure is hardly the fault of Brussels or the rest of the EU.
So obvious that HMG has consistently failed to address the issues, and look likely to ignore 'lessons learned' by replacing one lot of 'essential cheap labour' with just another.

That failure hardly being the fault of the EU(but a convenient scapegoat, nonetheless) didn't stop them landing themselves in the shit this time and won't stop it next time.
 
Aye, but according to the Guardian, the EU is 'vulnerable'. A no-deal Brexit combined with a Turkish implosion; that might be the kind of combination the EU may wish to avoid.
We all want to avoid it. Contagion.
 
The EU are probably hoping hard that if the Turkish lira does go tits up then it should be now so they can sting the UK treasury to help pay much of it - we ain't left yet!
we need to get out then...

Turkish lira's free-fall rocks equity markets, euro falls

Bank shares across Europe fell and the euro slipped to its lowest since July 2017 as the Financial Times quoted sources as saying the European Central Bank was concerned about European lenders’ exposure to Turkey. The country is not a member of the European Union but is economically linked to it.

The dollar rose as exposure to Turkey could impact European banks and spark a domino effect as people begin to pull out of those banks and into U.S. assets, said Gregan Anderson, macroeconomic strategist at brokerage Bulltick LLC.

The turmoil has made it difficult for global investors to justify remaining in Europe and is negative for emerging markets, he said.
Do you remember when remained and EUropean types were assuring is that London would cease to be?
 

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