Brexit Phase Two - Trade

So do I, given that NATO was founded in 1949 and the EU wasn't established until 1st November 1993 - notwithstanding that NATO is a military alliance of both EU and non-EU members unaffiliated with the EU, and the EU is an inefficient political administration without any directly-controlled military resources or defence infrastructure (at the moment).

Many, many people fail to realise this - including politicians and ranty talk radio hosts, both groups of which really have no excuse for not being better informed.

Given that a Europe without every state on the continent being in a political union experienced a distinct lack of red-starred panzers streaming through the Fulda Gap between 1949 and 1993 it would seem extremely unlikely that an EU without the UK (or, more to the point, the UKs annual wedge) would lead to a weakening of NATO - especially when the largest contributor and largest individual military is neither in the EU or on the European continental plate.

I recall that NATO managed to carry on regardless when France pulled out, too - oh, but that was before the EU came to be.

The main threat to NATO strength and stability is not Britain leaving the EU but Trump - when he loses it and pulls the funding plug because Angela won't pay her fair share.
Yet another argument implying that NATO somehow exists in a vacuum somehow shielded from the wider political and economic situation in its member states. You pretty much expose the flaws in your own argument.

If Brexit, as widely predicted, causes economic damage across the EU then the potential exists that member states may miss NATO spending targets. As you say, that could see the ever unpredictable Trump take his toys home.

In addition Brexit is creating tensions between the UK and member states, with the potential for further tensions within the 27 as the new reality is dealt with. There are some in the UK who seem to relish a hostile stance towards other European states. We then have Trump who described the EU as a 'foe'.

Does the above situation make a robust, unified NATO response to any Russian aggression more or less likely?
 
Keep telling yourself that, only it's not true. I'd also be curious as to why you were a cheerleader for the government as it failed to prepare, failed to spot this sabotage as it was happening, and shouted down anyone who told you it was happening?

Errr.... from what I can see of the situation, May has been the saboteur all along.

As an aside, how can you possibly trust anyone that instructs a century old agreement gets binned, pairing. Even Callaghan’s dying government respected that.
 
The EU is being uncooperative for fear that the UK will prosper outside of the EU and other countries will follow.

It's a lot easier to sign trade deals with countries that see mutual advantage in doing so.

Wordsmith
What is there for the EU to co-operate with? We haven't told them what we want to do yet, we've got the government breaking decades of Parliament tradition to force through a vote to save their own position in power and try and work out what relationship we want with the EU, over two f*cking years since the vote.
 
Quite an interesting day in the City today talking to one of the analysts from a US Investment bank. Since BAE sold its 20% stake in Airbus, the City has been expecting airbus to pull out of the UK for donkies, so the sabre rattling is causing no concern in London.

I asked about the current outlook and the response I got was UK manufacturing trading in the UK, not a problem. The drop in the pound places companies exporting into US, AsiaPac (in other words not Europe) - its good news. The only real impact is companies with supply chains cutting across the EU - they will have an issue, but with 5 years to relocate a manufacturing line, no-one is worrying, and those that are going to pull out were going to pull out anyway. A weaker pound also means labour costs are lower, so we are more competitive.

Some of you lot need to get out more
 
Feck knows, not Farage, Banks or Salmond though is he? Not supping from Putin's trough. Shame you refuse to recognise it.
I’ve yet to see anything firm about Russian involvement other Businessman goes to Russia.

I’ll let you into a little secret. I don’t care what the Russians think.
 
What is there for the EU to co-operate with? We haven't told them what we want to do yet, we've got the government breaking decades of Parliament tradition to force through a vote to save their own position in power and try and work out what relationship we want with the EU, over two f*cking years since the vote.
What parliament tradition was broken to force the vote through?
 
Quite an interesting day in the City today talking to one of the analysts from a US Investment bank. Since BAE sold its 20% stake in Airbus, the City has been expecting airbus to pull out of the UK for donkies, so the sabre rattling is causing no concern in London.

I asked about the current outlook and the response I got was UK manufacturing trading in the UK, not a problem. The drop in the pound places companies exporting into US, AsiaPac (in other words not Europe) - its good news. The only real impact is companies with supply chains cutting across the EU - they will have an issue, but with 5 years to relocate a manufacturing line, no-one is worrying, and those that are going to pull out were going to pull out anyway. A weaker pound also means labour costs are lower, so we are more competitive.

Some of you lot need to get out more
It’s been an option for airbus to pull out of the U.K. for some time. Airbus have even managed to build an assembly plant in China. But I suspect airbus will be staying.

Firstly there’s a distinct lack of skills and capacity within the rest of Europe.

Needlessly moving production in a fit of pique is very very expensive.

You then alienate a big customer. Do you think projects like the A400 will ever happen again without U.K. purchases?

Interestingly, airbus have a significant portion of its shares owned by the French and German government. Due to the complete lack of threats from Spanish and Italian firms threatening to pull out of the U.K. it’s pretty obvious that the threats of Airbus being pulled are idle threats being made by politicians.

Same with the automotive sector. I can hardly see BMW alienating its fourth largest global market.

I suspect the grown ups in business will be reigning in the politicians shortly.

Failing that we can always ask Bank, Farage and Trump to ask Putin to interrupt Germany’s has supply for a few weeks.
 
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What parliament tradition was broken to force the vote through?
The pairing agreement - if MPs are too ill or pregnant and can't attend Parliament for a vote they're paired with an MP of the opposite opinion and the other MP agrees not to vote. The Tory whips told at least one remain leaning MP that had been done then sent the paired leave MP in to vote anyway.
 
The pairing agreement - if MPs are too ill or pregnant and can't attend Parliament for a vote they're paired with an MP of the opposite opinion and the other MP agrees not to vote. The Tory whips told at least one remain leaning MP that had been done then sent the paired leave MP in to vote anyway.
You mean the vote that still would’ve passed?
 
It’s been an option for airbus to pull out of the U.K. for some time. Airbus have even managed to build an assembly plant in Russia. But I suspect airbus will be staying.

Firstly there’s a distinct lack of skills and capacity within the rest of Europe.

Needlessly moving production in a fit of pique is very very expensive.

You then alienate a big customer. Do you think projects like the A400 will ever happen again without U.K. purchases?

Interestingly, airbus have a significant portion of its shares owned by the French and German government. Due to the complete lack of threats from Spanish and Italian firms threatening to pull out of the U.K. it’s pretty obvious that the threats of Airbus being pulled are idle threats being made by politicians.

Same with the automotive sector. I can hardly see BMW alienating its fourth largest global market.

I suspect the grown ups in business will be reigning in the politicians shortly.

Failing that we can always ask Bank, Farage and Trump to ask Putin to interrupt Germany’s has supply for a few weeks.
Totally - no-one in the City of London is stressing about this. Its a non-event. People groan when anyone mentions BREXIT - I'm not kidding.

The only people stressing at the politicians as the electorate has turned their snug little world upside down.

Business will crack on - its what it does
 
A weaker pound also means labour costs are lower, so we are more competitive.

Some of you lot need to get out more
Except that they won't be able to, because a weaker pound will drive up the cost of summer holidays in the sun so beloved of most Brits, while making imported food and goods more expensive (even without any import tariffs). Have a staycation in the UK then, except the cost of fuel will also rise, as we import it and pay for it with our weakened pound. Hurrah!
 
Hmmm I wonder what will happen to the market share/sales of a company that quits the U.K. post-Brexit?
That depends on which market its listed on. Any company listed in London on the main market or AIM will not piss off, unless the UK is a very very small percentage of their turnover. Erm lets just think about that for a moment........... erm. Delistign and listing in another country would never happen for a FTSE250 - shareholders would never vote for it, and with companies having to achieve 75% (subject to their articles of incorporation) - not a chance.
 
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