Brexit Phase Two - Trade

We are heading towards fully automated production controlled by AI computers. This will eventually result in the disappearance of all but a limited about of jobs as there will be no need for workers on fully automated production lines, transport systems, distribution systems, ports and so on. (With all upgrades and repairs being carried out by robots).

The first countries to jump onto this bandwagon will come to dominate output of goods and services. The >90% of the workforce who will no longer have jobs will be dependent on state support - and if the UK can build an efficient manufacturing and services sector on the back of AI, that state support could result in quite a conforatable standard of living.

Countries late to jump on the bandwagon will find that their manufacturing and service sectors are driven into oblivion by countries that were quicker to see the coming technological revolution and can produce at a substantially lower cost. As such, all the workers displace are heading for a low - or indeed a subsistence - standard of living.

As such, we do need to look outwards and get our backsides in gear. There is a bright future out there for the countries with the vision to be early players in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Wordsmith
What a horrible vision of the future you have. Sort of a cross between Asimov and Orwell.
You come over as someone who has been attending presentations by people who talk about "blue sky" and "out of the box" thinking and actually believe it all.
Like the ones I used to attend when I was gainfully employed and told all about the "paperless office" and other jokey things.
Or, many years previously, we would all have jet boots and be commuting to work in vacuum tubes.
Or even earlier and Wilson's "white heat of technology" speech followed by Callaghan telling us all to go home and prepare for leisure as the machines would be doing all the work (over 50 years ago ISTR).

We already have feral and unemployable youths picking on the elderly, moped muggers, multiple stabbings an so on. In your vision (or somebody's vision) we will have more and more complaining of being bored and "nuffink to do" roaming the streets.

And UK is famous for coming up with ideas which are pinched and developed by other countries with a bit more oomph in them.

Yours is not a dream of the future, it's a bloody nightmare.
(Though absolutely bog all to do with leaving the EU but that's pretty much par for the course on this thread).
 
Britain is a second rate former colonial power with the legacy of a global empire.
It's not the only one, There's France, Spain, Netherlands, Portugal and italy in that spectrum and none of them are that much to write home about. The essential difference is that between us and France we still project. France has the advantage of being the only real power on the continent, which we and the Russians gave them and Russia is bigger than France. The EU in this respect is France. Putin's policy of control of energy to it's near neighbours is paying dividends. Now in the early part of the 20th century, Franco Russian policy kept Germany at bay, now French Policy has to depend on Russia being nice. The Only reason why Putin won't be given the appelation of "the Great" is the woeful policy of the west
 
I must admit that the 'sum of all the fears' constantly being propagated by both sides in the Brexit connundum has made me think about an entirely new vision for this disunited kingdom. What if we:
Abandoned our discredited 'first past the post' electoral system and substituted a more inclusive, more representative PR system?
What if we: Abandoned our illusiory pretentions to still being a top tier military power and led the way for a truely defensive role for our armed forces together with the development of a properly effective international body replace the ineffective alliance that is, in any event, another dead duck.
What if we: Focused on the genuine regeneration of our outdated provincial cities and the welfare, through education, training and employment of their populations.
What if we: Relocated the seat of government to middle England to a purpose built fit for purpose environment with appropriate communications networks that facilitated further economic diversification and redistribution.
What if we: Refocused our attention on modern manufacuring methods to increase the scope of that part of our economy while meddling less in the affairs of others. Indeed, success in the wole scope of these hanges could be used to expand even further our 'service' sector' withe the trade in resultant expertise.

It would, of course, take vision, a change in the way we Brits see ourselves on the world stage, a lot of tme and a lot of money.......and it would.nt be easy. So, sooner we start, the better........time to consider ourselves as genuinely a 'post industrual' nation that, nevertheless, demonstrates a different type of 'post nationalist' humanity.
I couldn't agree more with your sentiments.

Brexit will solve none of these domestic ills, sadly.

Where's the money coming from for your worthy roadmap the country's future?

We'll have to print more money since brexit means a reduced tax intake by almost every estimate.
 
What a horrible vision of the future you have. Sort of a cross between Asimov and Orwell. You come over as someone who has been attending presentations by people who talk about "blue sky" and "out of the box" thinking and actually believe it all.
I work for the a company involved in the technical side of the IT sector. Some very smart people have been researching AI. Their conclusion is that - at present - it doesn't work. But that it will work at some indeterminate time in the future - be it one year, five years or fifty years.
Yours is not a dream of the future, it's a bloody nightmare.
Yep. But its going to happen, so the UK had best prepare for it. Which means investing in the techniques and the technologies and ensuring we're at the front of the pack when theory becomes practical solution.

Wordsmith
 
Ah yes, heard her chatting on Radio4 earlier. The tone she was aiming for was righteous anger and moral indignation, but it sounded more like frustrated self interest with an undercurrent of hysteria.
Pity the poor scmuck who takes the wrong purchasing option this Christmas.
Self interest?

She's pursuing a political stance that will likely see her out of a job at the next GE, because of what she believes is in the best interests of the UK rather than party.

What self interest do you mean? Clearly she isn't after a promotion to government
 
We are heading towards fully automated production controlled by AI computers. This will eventually result in the disappearance of all but a limited about of jobs as there will be no need for workers on fully automated production lines, transport systems, distribution systems, ports and so on. (With all upgrades and repairs being carried out by robots).

The first countries to jump onto this bandwagon will come to dominate output of goods and services. The >90% of the workforce who will no longer have jobs will be dependent on state support - and if the UK can build an efficient manufacturing and services sector on the back of AI, that state support could result in quite a conforatable standard of living.

Countries late to jump on the bandwagon will find that their manufacturing and service sectors are driven into oblivion by countries that were quicker to see the coming technological revolution and can produce at a substantially lower cost. As such, all the workers displace are heading for a low - or indeed a subsistence - standard of living.

As such, we do need to look outwards and get our backsides in gear. There is a bright future out there for the countries with the vision to be early players in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Wordsmith

Really? Most of the computer scientists I've spoken with claim the idea of a fully automated workforce is a long way off.

The talk I attended a few months ago by a big guy in AI believes that AI may even increase jobs (and again said the idea of an automated workforce in the near future is fantasy), because at the moment its biggest use is energy regulation - think sensors that turn off the when you leave the bathroom etc. Or sensors that could re-route solar power to other houses etc. These things will need people to fit them.

But an entire automated workforce in our lifetime? Up there with hoverboards.

The science and cocktails talk I attended is below:



Interestingly the guy above said he has a number of postdocs in his lab who invested in BitCoin early on, apparently hes now the only lab member who needs to work for his salary!
 
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You are completely correct. I'm in the House of Commons tomoz with one of the Lords and an MP heading the select committee for this stuff and they are presenting three draft papers on this very subject.
Glad to know our lords and masters are actually actively preparing for the future. Many companies are investing in research into AI, but I suspect state aid will also be required. The problem will be to target the state aid at winners and not let the usual suspects get their hands on it just because they're expert at lobbying and shite at everything else.

Wordsmith
 
Really? Most of the computer scientists I've spoken with claim the idea of a fully automated workforce is a long way off.
Remind me how much dumb robots have replaced workers on car production lines. It will be an incremental process with more and more intelligence being built into such robots. It won't be a case of dumb robots one day and intelligent ones the next.

Given that the first manufacturing companies to develop viable AI will rapidly drive their competitors out of business, it's an arms race no major company can afford to fall behind in. The problems will inevitably be overcome - driven by the lure of increased profits and the need to stay in business.

Wordsmith
 
When I was a child in the 40s and 50s I was always reading about the robots that would take over from humans and that we would have magic lives flitting around in our own personal jets, auto food delivery cooked and served by robots, automatic cars a la Musk, automatic health recovery again by robotic medical intervention. It'll be the same in the next 100 years with those AI bods predicting a non-existent future. :cool:
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
I work for the a company involved in the technical side of the IT sector. Some very smart people have been researching AI. Their conclusion is that - at present - it doesn't work. But that it will work at some indeterminate time in the future - be it one year, five years or fifty years.


Yep. But its going to happen, so the UK had best prepare for it. Which means investing in the techniques and the technologies and ensuring we're at the front of the pack when theory becomes practical solution.

Wordsmith
Let’s just sort out the magical computerised customs setup first, otherwise whatever is manufactured by the robots is going nowhere.
 
Remind me how much dumb robots have replaced workers on car production lines. It will be an incremental process with more and more intelligence being built into such robots. It won't be a case of dumb robots one day and intelligent ones the next.

Given that the first manufacturing companies to develop viable AI will rapidly drive their competitors out of business, it's an arms race no major company can afford to fall behind in. The problems will inevitably be overcome - driven by the lure of increased profits and the need to stay in business.

Wordsmith

Have they replaced workers? Or are they tools for workers to enable them to do more, like forklift trucks or even lightbulbs? Plus an industry has been built up around them.

Personally the best thing the UK government can do now is seriously push for kids to learn to program in schools.
 
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I work for the a company involved in the technical side of the IT sector. Some very smart people have been researching AI. Their conclusion is that - at present - it doesn't work. But that it will work at some indeterminate time in the future - be it one year, five years or fifty years.


Yep. But its going to happen, so the UK had best prepare for it. Which means investing in the techniques and the technologies and ensuring we're at the front of the pack when theory becomes practical solution.

Wordsmith
I work for a certain multinational IT/Consultancy firm and am constantly propagandised about the wonders of AI and the future of VR. The truth is, its almost entirely a sales pitch for the gullible, where it is real, more often than not the customer doesn't really need it and the old processes worked just as well i.e. spend lots of money to replace A car, with another car which has looks amazing and has lots of amazing gimmicks but for the user, its often hard to drive and to an extent makes them dumber.

I agree post-brexit whatever that entails, we should be on the cutting edge. But, its hardly going to employ a lot of people and putting public money into it, is a very risky strategy. A mixed strategy is crucial and I hope a future government considers all sectors worthy of support.
 
I work for a certain multinational IT/Consultancy firm and am constantly propagandised about the wonders of AI and the future of VR. The truth is, its almost entirely a sales pitch for the gullible, where it is real, more often than not the customer doesn't really need it and the old processes worked just as well i.e. spend lots of money to replace A car, with another car which has looks amazing and has lots of amazing gimmicks but for the user, its often hard to drive and to an extent makes them dumber.

I agree post-brexit whatever that entails, we should be on the cutting edge. But, its hardly going to employ a lot of people and putting public money into it, is a very risky strategy. A mixed strategy is crucial and I hope a future government considers all sectors worthy of support.

I suspect AI will be a bit like the dot.com boom, where companies that didn't make any money were worth extortionate amounts on the stock exchange for simply having 'dot com' in the company name.
 
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