Brexit Phase Two - Trade

The thing is A-Y that Raab's job spec specifically stops him negotiating! that honour has been preserved by Olly Robbins in No10 so, god knows what Raab is going across to do!
Department figurehead, newly parachuted into position content to gaffer tape Olly Robbins (if given the chance) from making Mr Raab’s harder than it should be.

Also awaiting Barniers default Non response of course...


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skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
As @History_Man has said, there have only ever been two realistic outcomes from Brexit: hard Brexit or some for of membership of the EFTA/EEA.

And there has only been one form of realistic negotiating strategy for the UK: prepare seriously for a hard Brexit and make it clear to the EU that unless reasonable terms are offered, hard Brexit it will be.

This negotiating strategy was something May could have united the Tory party behind - there was something in it for both the Brexit and remain wings of the party. And May would have had to set out - and keep to - a set of red lines acceptable to both wings of the party. The nature of negotiations is that some of the red lines will be breached; May would have to demonstrate that for every red line she surrendered, the EU would have to give up one of theirs.

As well as the Tory party, I suspect that strategy would have played out well to the electorate as well: sticking up for the UK while showing flexibility if the EU was willing to make reciprocal concessions.

However May seems to have lacked both the vision and the strength of will to follow a strategy such as the above. And make no mistake, it would have required a steely will - including a willingness to withdraw the UK's negotiators from the EU as a high stakes political gesture.

Instead, May has been nickeled and dimed into concession after concession and has ended up with a dog's breakfast of a solution acceptable to neither a large chunk of her own party nor top the EU. May - with her known propensity to run away from tough problems has just found out that if you sit on the fence long enough they run the barbed wire straight through you.

No vision, no leadership and now - no realistic chance of a deal acceptable to both Westminster and Brussels.

Stupid woman.

Wordsmith
I disagree. Far from stupid.
Yet there’s a chance by agreeing to these four amendments she’s pulled the teeth of the eurosceptics.
They go off for the summer (I can’t see the Eu negotiators doing something similar) and then return with the clock ticking down.
Wondering how the Euro negotiators seem to have gotten their shit in one sock in so short a time.
 
D

Deleted 155579

Guest
Farage and Banks won't revive UKIP unless May waves the white flag to the EU. The first will not put money into and the second political capital into a party unless its starts polling around 15% again and exerts a significant influence on UK politics again. But I suspect if Banks puts money in and becomes chairman (as he's threatened to do), UKIP will be more professionally run than last time around.

Which the Tories would have good reason to fear.

I'd vote for the Kippers in the next local government elections if only to make it clear to the Tories that their vote is fragile - and could wither away if they wave the white flag. I suspect I won't be the only ex-Tory voter doing that.

Wordsmith
UKIP will most likely no longer exist and a new national gathering will be formed in its place, but yes your right, only if May is stopped. That will remain to be seen at the end of the process so wait and see.

On the funding, its what you get with modern democracy. People pay money for influence and all the Russkies have seemingly done is follow the same well trodden path as Business and other state powers have done for years, the Saudis and Gulf States been notable examples, who have far more access than the Russian will ever had. Our politicians can be bought, no surprise at al to me.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
Don’t be silly Auld Yin, those German car manufacturers will ride to our rescue any day now. ^^
They'll need to as they are fûcked if they stay in the EU what with all that emission fraud they have been committing. :D
 
She's buying more time.
To delay the inevitable...

The Chequers Agreement is a crock and everyone knows it except Theresa May, Gavin Barwell and Olly Robbins. I have said this repeatedly, there are only two options on the table:

1. Continued EEA/EFTA membership - the so-called 'Norway' option

2. Hard Brexit and reversion to WTO rules with a subsequent Free Trade Agreement - the so-called 'Canada' option

The EU will agree to either one and there is a realistic possibility of some minor tinkering around the edges to get some bespoke measures for both sides into the final agreement. But there is no possibility of the White Paper being accepted and the four amendments have made it even less palatable to the EU.

George Trefgarne writes an interesting piece n favour of option 1. here:

The Norway option can save Brexit - CapX
 
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To delay the inevitable...

The Chequers Agreement is a crock and everyone knows it except Theresa May, Gavin Barwell and Olly Robbins. I have said this repeatedly, there are only two options on the table:

1. Continued EEA/EFTA membership - the so-called 'Norway' option

2. Hard Brexit and reversion to WTO rules with a subsequent Free Trade Agreement - the so-called 'Canada' option

The EU will agree to either one and there is a realistic possibility of some minor tinkering around the edges to get some bespoke measures for both sides into the final agreement. But he re is no possibility of the White Paper being accepted and the four amendments have made it even less palatable to the EU.

George Trefgarne writes an interesting piece n favour of option 1. here:

The Norway option can save Brexit - CapX

There's also the destructive crash out option and the 'er, can we think about this a bit longer' option.

Are you watching the debate? It's on Beeb Parliament.
 
To delay the inevitable...

The Chequers Agreement is a crock and everyone knows it except Theresa May, Gavin Barwell and Olly Robbins. I have said this repeatedly, there are only two options on the table:

1. Continued EEA/EFTA membership - the so-called 'Norway' option

2. Hard Brexit and reversion to WTO rules with a subsequent Free Trade Agreement - the so-called 'Canada' option

The EU will agree to either one and there is a realistic possibility of some minor tinkering around the edges to get some bespoke measures for both sides into the final agreement. But he re is no possibility of the White Paper being accepted and the four amendments have made it even less palatable to the EU.

George Trefgarne writes an interesting piece n favour of option 1. here:

The Norway option can save Brexit - CapX
PMTM could also make an executive decision to unilaterally withdraw A50 for the national interest.

If she's toast after this process one way or another, what's to stop her?
 
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