Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Auld-Yin

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Don’t be silly Auld Yin, those German car manufacturers will ride to our rescue any day now. ^^
They'll need to as they are fûcked if they stay in the EU what with all that emission fraud they have been committing. :D
 
She's buying more time.
To delay the inevitable...

The Chequers Agreement is a crock and everyone knows it except Theresa May, Gavin Barwell and Olly Robbins. I have said this repeatedly, there are only two options on the table:

1. Continued EEA/EFTA membership - the so-called 'Norway' option

2. Hard Brexit and reversion to WTO rules with a subsequent Free Trade Agreement - the so-called 'Canada' option

The EU will agree to either one and there is a realistic possibility of some minor tinkering around the edges to get some bespoke measures for both sides into the final agreement. But there is no possibility of the White Paper being accepted and the four amendments have made it even less palatable to the EU.

George Trefgarne writes an interesting piece n favour of option 1. here:

The Norway option can save Brexit - CapX
 
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To delay the inevitable...

The Chequers Agreement is a crock and everyone knows it except Theresa May, Gavin Barwell and Olly Robbins. I have said this repeatedly, there are only two options on the table:

1. Continued EEA/EFTA membership - the so-called 'Norway' option

2. Hard Brexit and reversion to WTO rules with a subsequent Free Trade Agreement - the so-called 'Canada' option

The EU will agree to either one and there is a realistic possibility of some minor tinkering around the edges to get some bespoke measures for both sides into the final agreement. But he re is no possibility of the White Paper being accepted and the four amendments have made it even less palatable to the EU.

George Trefgarne writes an interesting piece n favour of option 1. here:

The Norway option can save Brexit - CapX

There's also the destructive crash out option and the 'er, can we think about this a bit longer' option.

Are you watching the debate? It's on Beeb Parliament.
 
To delay the inevitable...

The Chequers Agreement is a crock and everyone knows it except Theresa May, Gavin Barwell and Olly Robbins. I have said this repeatedly, there are only two options on the table:

1. Continued EEA/EFTA membership - the so-called 'Norway' option

2. Hard Brexit and reversion to WTO rules with a subsequent Free Trade Agreement - the so-called 'Canada' option

The EU will agree to either one and there is a realistic possibility of some minor tinkering around the edges to get some bespoke measures for both sides into the final agreement. But he re is no possibility of the White Paper being accepted and the four amendments have made it even less palatable to the EU.

George Trefgarne writes an interesting piece n favour of option 1. here:

The Norway option can save Brexit - CapX
PMTM could also make an executive decision to unilaterally withdraw A50 for the national interest.

If she's toast after this process one way or another, what's to stop her?
 
To delay the inevitable...

The Chequers Agreement is a crock and everyone knows it except Theresa May, Gavin Barwell and Olly Robbins. I have said this repeatedly, there are only two options on the table:

1. Continued EEA/EFTA membership - the so-called 'Norway' option

2. Hard Brexit and reversion to WTO rules with a subsequent Free Trade Agreement - the so-called 'Canada' option

The EU will agree to either one and there is a realistic possibility of some minor tinkering around the edges to get some bespoke measures for both sides into the final agreement. But he re is no possibility of the White Paper being accepted and the four amendments have made it even less palatable to the EU.

George Trefgarne writes an interesting piece n favour of option 1. here:

The Norway option can save Brexit - CapX
Interesting read. The 'Norway' option might save the Conservatives' bacon, but first they'd have to get rid of May and put a more credible leader in place. Next, both sides would have to put a time limit on the Norway agreement - say 4 years. After that - absolutely clean break from the EU. The 4 years would then give the time to negotiate a sensible trade deal with the EU before the clean break.

Everyone happy then: the UK no longer with any legal connection the the EU, the EU with a trading agreement in place with the UK that gives it the protection it wants relative to the UK's access to the single market, time to sort out the Irish border question and so on.

May's credibility is absolutely shot - she's a busted flush. The Tories need to put in place a moderate pro-Brexit leader who will select a cabinet with a narrow pro-Brexit majority. That would gain the confidence of many voters who opted for Brexit and stop the slow haemorrhage of support to UKIP.

That leader would then have a relatively clear run up to the 2022 GE with the Norway option preventing post-Brexit turbulence after March of next year. That would give the Tories a good chance of winning the GE.

Now all they have to do is f--k off May at the high port.

Wordsmith
 
There's also the destructive crash out option and the 'er, can we think about this a bit longer' option.

Are you watching the debate? It's on Beeb Parliament.
No, not watching; as I said in a previous post, treat the implementation period as a 21-month association agreement, attempt to re-negotiate and, if unsuccessful, exit then on WTO terms with much more preparation. It is an option.
 
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Interesting read. The 'Norway' option might save the Conservatives' bacon, but first they'd have to get rid of May and put a more credible leader in place. Next, both sides would have to put a time limit on the Norway agreement - say 4 years. After that - absolutely clean break from the EU. The 4 years would then give the time to negotiate a sensible trade deal with the EU before the clean break.

Everyone happy then: the UK no longer with any legal connection the the EU, the EU with a trading agreement in place with the UK that gives it the protection it wants relative to the UK's access to the single market, time to sort out the Irish border question and so on.

May's credibility is absolutely shot - she's a busted flush. The Tories need to put in place a moderate pro-Brexit leader who will select a cabinet with a narrow pro-Brexit majority. That would gain the confidence of many voters who opted for Brexit and stop the slow haemorrhage of support to UKIP.

That leader would then have a relatively clear run up to the 2022 GE with the Norway option preventing post-Brexit turbulence after March of next year. That would give the Tories a good chance of winning the GE.

Now all they have to do is f--k off May at the high port.

Wordsmith

Why should the future of the UK for the next several decades depend on this internal Tory civil war?
 
No, not watching; as I said ina previous post, treat the implementation period as a 21-month association agreement, attempt to re-negotiate and, if unsuccessful, exit then on WTO terms with much more preparation. It is an option.
It is an option. The HoC is filling up so the vote is imminent.
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
PMTM could also make an executive decision to unilaterally withdraw A50 for the national interest.

If she's toast after this process one way or another, what's to stop her?

And a grateful nation breathes a sigh of relief while the Euroloons go into meltdown. For another forty years, Farage thanks his lucky stars and returns to his vastly overpaid and underworked role as an MEP.

Banks suddenly finds himself with a cash flow problem and UKIP form Wetherspoon units. Nobody cares and people avoid the pubs when they’re having their SA meetings on a Wednesday night.
 
Why should the future of the UK for the next several decades depend on this internal Tory civil war?
Because that's life. The Tories made their most disastrous decision in a generation what they put May in as leader. The Brexit f--k up has stemmed from that. As @History_Man has just pointed out, there are options that get the country and the Tories out of deep smeg - all are predicated on them getting shot of May. Do that and the situation might start to improve rapidly.

Even a strongly pro-Brexit supporter such as I would go for a strictly time limited Norway solution to give time to put sensible exit arrangements in place. If we formally exit the EU in March of next year into a 4 year 'Norway' and sensible arrangements are negotiated before March 2023 for a mutually beneficial total break from the EU, I can live with that.

What matters to me is exiting the EU. If it takes a little longer but both sides are better off for it, c'est la vie.

Wordsmith
 
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