Brexit Phase Two - Trade

In the immediate aftermath of the Grenfell Tower conflagration, the Telegraph stated that there was something seriously wrong with both her political and humanitarian instincts.
May has developed a bunker mentality - deploying phantom votes in order to stave off defeat.

It's not as if this problem came out of the blue. It's been obvious for months that a steadily increasing segment of the Tory party has become deeply unhappy with the direction May is taking. Instead of taking note of the concerns and trying to reach an accommodation with the Brexit wing of the party, she's tried to bluff and con her way past them. Not a smart move...

She must feel like someone with a date with the hangman. Every day she crosses another date off the calendar in her cell, bringing her ever closer to the day she must resign leadership of the Tory party - or be forced out. And history is not going to be too kind to her when it happens - she has only herself to blame for the fuster cluck she's created.

Wordsmith
 
Sure, that is an option but one I think is getting increasingly unlikely.

We know Olly Robbins has sounded out most of the EU27 and (allegedly) they would raise no objections if A50 was withdrawn and we know TM would withdraw notification first, then present the Party with a fait accompli after, or very close to the event.

After all, she’s well known for this tactic so wouldn’t be entirely surprising.
Bad man...
It would also imply that TM will fold on the Irish Border backstop issue shortly - although having seen that implied in the White Paper anyway, it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise... ^^
I was under the impression this was the game plan and a bit of a fait accompli. Which is why BoJo and Davis bailed after a grown up explained it.
 
Shouldn’t the headline read ‘EU invest €230 million of somebody else’s money and claims credit for it’
MS money invested in future of MS shocker.
 
In the immediate aftermath of the Grenfell Tower conflagration, the Telegraph stated that there was something seriously wrong with both her political and humanitarian instincts.
Interesting that you should mention that. I've seen a couple of articles speculating that the PM might have a touch of autism.

She's undoubtedly extremely intelligent. Well ordered and meticulous in her ministerial and pre-political careers. As PM, for the first time in her working life, she has no line manager to guide her and she seems to choose advisers unwisely.

A bit like Gordon Brown perhaps. Brain the size of a planet but a personality that precludes success at the highest levels.
 
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...genuine or scripted.......
Is it still a second referendum if the question is fundamentally different?

Status quo, hard brexit or PMTMs negotiated settlement?

iOS argue that it's actually a 3rd referendum after the one in the 70's
 
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We can't unpick them full stop, any future deal will be negotiated with the EU, it isn't a sovereign state but it represents all treaty members.
You still don't get it Mr Lobbyist do you? WE don't need to. What we don't have to accept is the EU is in charge. If you took this to court, there's a strong case the EU would be found guilty of misrepresentation. The Only thing at issue here is the payments for the CU. You leave the club, subs stop. Individual contracts with other countries continue. That's it end of. That's why Trump said "sue them"

Imagine a contract that said.
We provide defence ( you pay and provide your own defence)
We control Immigration. (You pay and provide the services-we tell you what todo)
We provide Nationality guarantees ( we have no means to do so)
We control trade ( but actually every one does what they like)
You pay us for doing sod all.
would you sign a contract like that? Our politicians did.........
 
Is it still a second referendum if the question is fundamentally different?

Status quo, hard brexit or PMTMs negotiated settlement?
No it isn't and the idea of a second referendum and the question it should ask, keeps changing on the remainer side, because there unsure which question will garner the right result.

Now we have Saint Theresa's compromise deal and I suspect she could win any referendum on that question. So its pretty clever, as many remainers will vote for a compromise to avoid a hard brexit. My guess would be 65-35 in favour.
 
May is likely to be PM until March 19. It is too late for a leadership election, and if there is one, a remainer is likely to win and continue the division.

It is looking like the May plan (with a bit of watering down) or not leaving at all. This is where the debate should now be, imho.

Boris and Davis could not win the argument in Cabinet, they cannot win it from the back benches.
 
May is likely to be PM until March 19. It is too late for a leadership election, and if there is one, a remainer is likely to win and continue the division.

It is looking like the May plan (with a bit of watering down) or not leaving at all. This is where the debate should now be, imho.

Boris and Davis could not win the argument in Cabinet, they cannot win it from the back benches.
The only real issue she has to worry about at this stage is if Parliament will survive in the short term and all Parliamentarians are worried they won't have a job if you give too much to the the EU. They have after all to convince their electorates that they can still do something.
 
A bit like Gordon Brown perhaps. Brain the size of a planet but a personality that precludes success at the highest levels.
As has been commented before, her nickname is 'the submarine' as she submerges at the first sign of trouble. A characteristic that has allowed her to be seen as a safe pair of hands because she's generally dodged being associated with problems.

That's a characteristic that's partially responsible for her present mess. Instead of realising that she's faced with problems that can't be dodged, she's tried to slip and slide around them, telling different people different things simultaneously. She's also totally failed to read the mood of her own party - the autism kicking in perhaps.

I seriously doubt she's got a brain the size of a planet though - if she had the ability for analytical thought, she wouldn't be in her present mess. Her problems are related to the inability to fully analyse the problem.

Wordsmith
 
You still don't get it Mr Lobbyist do you? WE don't need to. What we don't have to accept is the EU is in charge. If you took this to court, there's a strong case the EU would be found guilty of misrepresentation. The Only thing at issue here is the payments for the CU. You leave the club, subs stop. Individual contracts with other countries continue. That's it end of. That's why Trump said "sue them"

Imagine a contract that said.
We provide defence ( you pay and provide your own defence)
We control Immigration. (You pay and provide the services-we tell you what todo)
We provide Nationality guarantees ( we have no means to do so)
We control trade ( but actually every one does what they like)
You pay us for doing sod all.
would you sign a contract like that? Our politicians did.........
Mr Lobbyist? <Guffaw followed by huge belly laughs>
If we want to trade with them, we do so with a trade agreement, preferably a FTA because if we don't, our economy is fecked. We can trade without a trade agreement, under WTO.

How are our schedules coming along?

How many of those trade deals are going to be seamlessly transferred?

Which of our biggest, bestest and favourite, newest and biglyest future trade partners have kyboshed UK/EU agreements at the WTO?

You're truly without a Scooby at all, after all of this time, can't learn, won't learn.
 
May is likely to be PM until March 19. It is too late for a leadership election, and if there is one, a remainer is likely to win and continue the division.

It is looking like the May plan (with a bit of watering down) or not leaving at all. This is where the debate should now be, imho.

Boris and Davis could not win the argument in Cabinet, they cannot win it from the back benches.
And they couldn't deliver anything other than rhetoric.
 
Re. our discussion yesterday, this excellent piece of reporting from Katya Adler sums up nicely the current state of play:

Why the EU is silent on May's Brexit plan
Yes, makes sense - by colluding with TM to keep quiet and kick the can down the road whilst she quietly continues to concede even more to them they intend to 'ambush' the UK parliament at the very last safe moment. Obviously No 10 will use that to say ' look its this or nothing' and hope that the majority Remain Parliament will accept it - which is pretty likely given 2/3 rds of them have never believed in Brexit and are determined to remain attached to the EU - AT ALL COSTS!
 
The cabinet was appointed by May - who gave it a slim remain majority. Which is why BoJo and Davis lost the argument.

It's called stacking the deck.

Wordsmith
I actually believe that she listened to both sides of the argument, and wasn't convinced by these two. I am a Brxiteer, and have also been underwhelmed with their vision and lack of attention to detail.
 
May is likely to be PM until March 19. It is too late for a leadership election, and if there is one, a remainer is likely to win and continue the division.

It is looking like the May plan (with a bit of watering down) or not leaving at all. This is where the debate should now be, imho.

Boris and Davis could not win the argument in Cabinet, they cannot win it from the back benches.
I am of the opinion, there isn't much to debate about. Some on here think the EU will say No or edit the deal, the truth is I support the theory that May has through the backdoor pre-agreed most of the white paper.

So the deal is more than likely to remain unchanged with some minor edits to tighten up the language, of what happens if we default and maybe some friendly clauses about rejoining fully, given her a supposed victory.

There is simply no appetite in the country for a second referendum and the remain insiders know it, so this is probably the best deal they can get and why they have started to shift positions. The only ones holding out are the pure remainers like mandy.
 

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I am of the opinion, there isn't much to debate about. Some on here think the EU will say No or edit the deal, the truth is I support the theory that May has through the backdoor pre-agreed most of the white paper.

So the deal is more than likely to remain unchanged with some minor edits to tighten up the language, of what happens if we default and maybe some friendly clauses about rejoining fully, given her a supposed victory.

There is simply no appetite in the country for a second referendum and the remain insiders know it, so this is probably the best deal they can get and why they have started to shift positions. The only ones holding out are the pure remainers like mandy.
I think Mrs May's worries are not the Remainers as she has bought them off with this white paper.

No her worries now are the Brexiteers in her own party who feel they have been ambushed and sold out. There is a definite chance that they will get amendments to the Bills going through before parliament rises which will make the deal either unacceptable to the EU or changed in such a way that it can't go forward.
 
I think Mrs May's worries are not the Remainers as she has bought them off with this white paper.

No her worries now are the Brexiteers in her own party who feel they have been ambushed and sold out. There is a definite chance that they will get amendments to the Bills going through before parliament rises which will make the deal either unacceptable to the EU or changed in such a way that it can't go forward.
Very likely, but are they thinking through the consequences of these actions?
 
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