Brexit Phase Two - Trade

I'd have to see the full presentation and context. Here's a somewhat more sober outlook:

If realised, the forecast suggests the economy is in a torpor, with uncertainties around Brexit, interest rate rises, and international developments such as a possible trade war and rising oil prices, all having an impact.

BCC Economic Forecast: UK set for weakest year of GDP growth since 2009

You can't make any assertions about the impact of EU membership on our growth until we're out of it and have been at least 5, then 10, then 15 years and so on.
Trade war has nothing to do with BREXIT.

Oil prices have nothing to do with BREXIT.

Interest rates have nothing to do with BREXIT.

These are market conditions and they occur regardless of being aligned to or decoupled from the European Union.

Interest rates are low because the consumer is not spending. Consumers aren’t spending because the cost of living is disproportionately high in this country. Consumer spending drives growth.

Business operates in three year cycles. You can’t plan beyond that with any certainty. 5, 10 and 15 year forecasts are completely meaningless.
 
They have their own special kind of dumb about them.
Said the man posting a link which states any further investment is dependent on the UK securing a harmonised regulatory regime and to remain part of the customs union.....as an argument for Brexit....
 
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Trade war has nothing to do with BREXIT.

Oil prices have nothing to do with BREXIT.

Interest rates have nothing to do with BREXIT.

These are market conditions and they occur regardless of being aligned to or decoupled from the European Union.

Interest rates are low because the consumer is not spending. Consumers aren’t spending because the cost of living is disproportionately high in this country. Consumer spending drives growth.

Business operates in three year cycles. You can’t plan beyond that with any certainty. 5, 10 and 15 year forecasts are completely meaningless.
Brexit amplifies the effects.

The looming trade war shows how much we can trust our biggest bestest pal Donald.

Interest rates are affected by inflation, which was definitely affected by Brexit.

Consumers aren't spending because they're not sure of their future so are saving, cost of living has been relatively high since I can remember. Brexit isn't going to do squat to improve it.

Some business operate in longer cycles and do plan beyond that, I'm not talking about forecasting either, I'm talking about comparing.

You can't make any confident statement that being out of the EU doesn't affect growth because we're still members. You don't know how our growth will be affected once we're out because you don't know the circumstances of our leaving and what relationship we'll have with the EU and the rest of world.
 
There will almost certainly be a move to exclude the UK from EU funded projects. I suspect that will be short-lived as both sides realise they lose out from that.

As with everything else from Brexit, there are both problems and opportunities for the UK. For example it should be easier for the UK to carry out research into artificial intelligence free of EU constraints. The question to be settled is whether we grasp the opportunities or not.

Wordsmith
Well, no. The White Paper proposes regulatory cooperation with the EU and sharing the challenge of AI and entering into alliances such as the one below.

0E2DED07-709D-4CE5-B2C9-EA052962E94C.jpeg
 
The point about growth in 17&18 is it has accelerated in the U.K. post BREXIT.

It is the same slide deck. Presented this morning. This is the third day I’ve sat through the same sessions - the other two days were different industries. All sectors covered over three days and the trends are the same with the same growth curve across all sectors.

EU membership is an irrelevance. most growth is occurring outside of EU member states.

The point I made is valid. Politicians are citing business as the reason to stay in the EU, but the figures suggest no link between EU membership and growth - I can’t be arrsed to post the rest of the slides so you’ll have to believe me.
I didn't say it's not from the same power point slide, I said it would be interesting to see the first figure you showed broken down by year; what you then claimed to be the first figure broken down by year clearly wasn't, because the values on the Y-axis are wildly different.

The point you made may also be valid in your mind, but you said it was also supported by the two graphs - it's not. And also of course they can't show the relationship between EU membership and growth (either way) because data as it's presented in those two figures isn't in anyway related to the EU.

So yes, I'm sure you're convinced by the presentation, but what you've shown here as evidence to support your position doesn't hold up.
 
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That is bang on. But then to acknowlege that would be inconvenient. I have never exculpated Cameron for accepting the pre-emptive move made by Juncker, but remainers should accept that the implication of the EU that they control trade has not only been part of the problem in the making and slowing the trade process- it will cause problems down the line even if we have to lump it.
At least brexiteers on here try to convince and provide context. From what I have seen from the remainers, there position never changes and when boxed in, they deploy that juvenile comment like a SJW from the guardian.
 
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Feck no, you own it, any successes and any train crash consequences.

You can ram your "a big boy did it and ran away" bilge, poke your "remoaners are to blame", stuff your screeching "Traitorsssss!!!!" and similar pish.

Still waiting for that link where you predicted Chequers and I pooh pooed it BTW.
Your like a hyper active gerbil who has got access to twitter, to prove all your mad ideas correct. With occasional foaming at the mouth like tonight.
 
The departure of Davis noted and appreciated by the other side in Europe. Apparently he took no interest, didn't stay for the meeting and only showed for the press conference.
Apparently one Olly Robbins does all the work


SENIOR EU SOURCE with some withering criticism for David Davis: “It makes no difference. The guy never bothered to show up, even when there was an official negotiation round. Oftentimes he would not even show up at the official opening...
Used his lifetime supply of motivation up in the hills phase
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
There will almost certainly be a move to exclude the UK from EU funded projects. I suspect that will be short-lived as both sides realise they lose out from that.

As with everything else from Brexit, there are both problems and opportunities for the UK. For example it should be easier for the UK to carry out research into artificial intelligence free of EU constraints. The question to be settled is whether we grasp the opportunities or not.

Wordsmith
Those Europeans, excluding us from their own money and funding projects just because we voted to leave. Any thoughts on why they should continue giving us money if we contribute nothing.
I'm sure they'd love to hear it.
Then again as Davis (or DD as he liked us to us to refer to him as) has now resigned from his post as DExEU. It maynot be the time to point out that only DD mentioned or probably even knows where Brexits considerable upside is.


If it fails to appear can we apply to the EUs emergency euro budget for financial aid. as we're poor and destitute.
 
Your like a hyper active gerbil who has got access to twitter, to prove all your mad ideas correct. With occasional foaming at the mouth like tonight.
Cheers champ. Recon I've posted considerably less than yourself today.

Ownership's a bit like providing links for you isn't it? You don't do it.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
The party appears to be over. Mind how you go.

Your Brexit unicorn is in the post and will be left in the shed.
The party is certainly not over, the band is just taking a break and the buffet will be served soon followed by the raffle. The party flings will start again after the break. Carriages at dawn!
 
The point about growth in 17&18 is it has accelerated in the U.K. post BREXIT.

It is the same slide deck. Presented this morning. This is the third day I’ve sat through the same sessions - the other two days were different industries. All sectors covered over three days and the trends are the same with the same growth curve across all sectors.

EU membership is an irrelevance. most growth is occurring outside of EU member states.

The point I made is valid. Politicians are citing business as the reason to stay in the EU, but the figures suggest no link between EU membership and growth - I can’t be arrsed to post the rest of the slides so you’ll have to believe me.
Could you explain that bit in bold. Firstly, there has been no Brexit, we're still in. Secondly, ONS, Statista and other sites all show a marked decrease in growth in UK from 2015, and quite a big drop as well.
In fact, 2014 and 2015 were being touted as records and fastest growth for 7 years. Then 2016, 2017 show a marked decrease. As we are only half way through 2018 I doubt full figures can be quoted but some I have read show that economic growth forecast for this year will fall by a half.

I would be interested in any report to show it has accelerated.
 

Auld-Yin

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Could you explain that bit in bold. Firstly, there has been no Brexit, we're still in. Secondly, ONS, Statista and other sites all show a marked decrease in growth in UK from 2015, and quite a big drop as well.
In fact, 2014 and 2015 were being touted as records and fastest growth for 7 years. Then 2016, 2017 show a marked decrease. As we are only half way through 2018 I doubt full figures can be quoted but some I have read show that economic growth forecast for this year will fall by a half.

I would be interested in any report to show it has accelerated.
We certainly are still in and still paying our whack, but excluded from any meetings that the EU feel will be of use pre and post brexit.

Fair enough I suppose, but full, participating members we no longer are.
 
We certainly are still in and still paying our whack, but excluded from any meetings that the EU feel will be of use pre and post brexit.

Fair enough I suppose, but full, participating members we no longer are.
It's what you voted for, remember?
 
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