Brexit Phase Two - Trade

The German Vehicle manufactures association said 17% of German exports got to UK. So if UK purchases drop by 1/3 that’s still a drop in German exports, overall, of 5%
250k out of 5 million exports. ( these figures broadly match Deloitte’s)

That’s not going to decimate the European car industry. Remember that UK-produced cars in the EU will also suffer a 10% price rise. If European consumers behave same as UK ones, demand in UK- produces cars will fall, and intra-EU production will make up the difference. And the EU 27 is a much bigger market.

The only country in the world that trades solely under WTO rules is Mauritania.
They export Iron ore ...
And that’s it
Common sense might prevail , but not when one side still thinks it can pick and 3 of the 4 freedoms.

Back to Ford;
If the engines can’t be imported into the EU without paying duty, then the expense argument becomes a lot less clear. Not now, but when the next new model needs to be built. The people they need will be relocated. I don’t think the auto industry will drop of a cliff, but a slow decline until all that’s left are niche products

Airbus’s problems are different. As I understand unless an agreement is made with EASA - including ECJ oversight - parts made in the UK can’t get signed off to European requirements. Same with every single one of their suppliers ( no doubt an expert, or failing that a bluffer with an opinion, will correct me)

That’s without considering rules or origin, tight supply chains, and import duty considerations


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Ahh but now we are back to sales and profit again.
I honestly don't know what the figures are now but 10 years ago BMW made 70% more profit on a car sold in the UK than a car sold anywhere else in the world.

Ford, different case altogether as they aren't a european company. I can gaurantee you that right now Ford has a very large and expensive legal team working on a get around. They will find one too.

PSA will maintain its UK market share by imaginative use of Ellesmere Port, they'll huff and puff and threaten all sorts but 36% of their sales are in the UK. They will still be selling cars in the UK in three years time and they probably won't be paying tariffs

Renault, will probably atempt something similar using Nissan Sunderland, they are a major shareholder in Nissan afterall.

BMW, Hams Hall engine plant in the Midlands may go to cope with the downturn in sales if there is no trade deal. But that will be part of a company wide reduction

Mercedes, industry rumour is that they will probably shut a German factory without a trade deal

VW/Audi. All bets are off on that one. For various reasons it is going to hurt them most of all I'd say.

Airbus, as already commented by others, already has production facilities in China.
How does that work being outside the EU and UK production can't? Genuine question.
Asides from that, moving wing production out of the UK is going to cost them around a billion quid

Anyway, the point is that no trade deal is going to hurt EU manufacturers more than it is going to hurt UK ones and Deloitte reckon that UK manufacturers will actually benefit

The EU stance is going to hurt themselves more than it is going to hurt us, I think they probably fully understand that and once the game of brinksmanship is over we'll probably see sense prevail
All depends who blinks first really.
 
Utterly wrong.

Only one side ever suffers the consequences of war (the trade or shooting variety).
I suggest you go take a close look at just of much Irish import and export business transits through UK ports. Then look at the additional costs incurred by avoiding that.

When you've done that come back and explain to me how they are not going to suffer
 
You're very welcome.

In fact if it wasn't for the EU and Remainers making this as complicated as possible then we would be well on the way to an agreement by now! Most of the complexity is invented/inflated or just not there.
Please, do keep believing that. ^^

I for one cannot understand why a mighty Nation like the U.K. have not simply defeated the EU and Remainers by circumventing their invented complexity, instead of falling into the obvious trap of monthly negotiation rounds at the Ministerial level, plus more frequent negotiations at the technical level, with hundreds of submissions and planning rounds aimed at trying to resolve these apparently “invented” and “inflated” issues.

I mean, add in things like our agreement to the timing and content of negotiation rounds and the weight of Whitehall machinery devoted to resolving these “invented” and “inflated” issues including the creation of DExEU and DFIT and it may just seen there’s an element of complexity to Brexit.

Gosh. Maybe it’s not as simple as the elderly gentlemen of ARRSE perceive it to be? =-D
 
D

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Please, do keep believing that. ^^

I for one cannot understand why a mighty Nation like the U.K. have not simply defeated the EU and Remainers by circumventing their invented complexity, instead of falling into the obvious trap of monthly negotiation rounds at the Ministerial level, plus more frequent negotiations at the technical level, with hundreds of submissions and planning rounds aimed at trying to resolve these apparently “invented” and “inflated” issues.

I mean, add in things like our agreement to the timing and content of negotiation rounds and the weight of Whitehall machinery devoted to resolving these “invented” and “inflated” issues including the creation of DExEU and DFIT and it may just seen there’s an element of complexity to Brexit.

Gosh. Maybe it’s not as simple as the elderly gentlemen of ARRSE perceive it to be? =-D
Or, perhaps the Government is NOT really a brexit one.
Or the two Houses of Parliament would on a free vote, dump brexit in a heartbeat.

If you look into the well funded and orchestrated Remain campaign, its aims are clearly to operate as a public pressure group, to give the backsliders in Government and Parliament, cover. If they weren't on the streets, how could politicians claim there opposition to brexit.
 
Won't be us. May will dither over that too :)

To be honest I'm not Theresa May's greatest fan but so far she is proving quite tenacious

Politicians aren't my favourite people in general, Theresa May isn't my favourite politican but I do think she believes in democracy and I think she is one of the few politicians we have that would/will honour the referendum result.

However, for me its easy. I voted for Brexit and Hard Brexit is fine by me if it comes to it
On that basis I really don't mind if politicians prove incapable of reaching agreement and no deal is struck.

My only concern is that to many compromises are agreed.
Free trade deal without to many strings will suit me nicely, Hard Brexit with no deal will suit me just as fine.
 

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
Are we going to be so supine that if our people's quals are not recognised in Europe we will still go on recognising EU quals?


Incidentally if a doc goes from here to the US he has to spend time requalifying before being allowed to treat Yanks.
 
Brexiteers are ignorant little Englanders with dogtoffee between their ears and severely limited cognitive abilities.

The insane rantings over the past few days confirms this.

They collectively need whacking around the head and putting out of their misery.

Policy of the bigoted, by the ignorant and for the stupid
 
The Deloitte report is cold hard fact (regardless of whether you like it or not) and Graculus counters it with a vague article of if's and maybe's
The political landscape has changed. You seem quite happy to discount the effect of Trump's tariffs. The Japanese ambassador saying that Japanese industry will up sticks is hardly vague. Deloitte's cold hard facts are if's and maybes which need updating to account for changes. Yes Germany will be damaged but so will we.

Rules of Origin isn't vague at all, you appear to have not looked at it. Deloitte haven't either which is a bit strange.

Brexit and rules of origin: Why free trade agreements ≠ free trade
The end result is that no trade deal will decimate the european car industry. THe UK car industry will thrive, I'm pretty sure its why PSA have bought Vauxhall and Renault will hold on tightly to their stake in Nissan.
We're part of the European car industry. Donald Trump's 20% tariffs will affect us too.
All this talk and muttering of AIrbus and BMW is just part of the bargaining process.
Airbus build all of their wings in the UK, I'm told that moving that wing production would take 3 years and a billion quid.
It's company CEO's weighing up the uncertainty and possible costs, they may think the better course is to make a decision and put the uncertainty behind them. Read this about wing manufacture, I keep on saying Spain, there's a reason for that. More than 3 years really BTW. We underestimate the political aspect of this at our peril.

Airbus departure? Five things you need to know to understand its relationship with Britain

The French are being quite pragmatic and both PSA and Renault have a foothold in the UK and will exploit it if necessary. The Germans don't appear to have a Plan B so far

And all of this is why I personally am quite relaxed about Hard Brexit, EU manufacturing will suffer far more than UK.
Remember why Deloitte apologised to the government? It wasn't for being wrong BTW.
]Money talks, whatever the outcome the industrial giants will spend billions if necessary to keep trade going no matter what Merkel and Co say.

Take away the hysteria and posturing and it will all settle down. There will be short term pain but WTO rules would actually benefit the UK. Despite that I personally think its un-necessary and common sense says that a trade deal can be struck

Or Merkel can explain to the 60,000 Germans workers producing cars for the UK market why 1 in 3 of them is getting made redundant. Macron has the same dilema.

Remember, this isn't my opinion it is the results of a study by one of the worlds major accountancy firms.
Those who disagree should give Deloitte a call and tell them they are wrong. Myself I'd read the report and work it out from there.

Apologies for the long winded reply but it is a complex issue
Merkl has the example of BoJo and Fox to go by, she can blame the UK for their issues (she wouldn't openly) and wave the flag.

"No deal" would be very bad for the EU and for us, WTO would be much harder than Liam Fox or Johnson say, we're back to no agreed WTO schedules and countries objecting to agreements we've made with the EU. Even with agreement our FTAs will not be as good as the EU has negotiated with S Korea and Japan, they've both also prioritised the EU deals.

Yup, it's extremely complex. Which is why Deloitte's study needs updating, any forecast is a snapshot and as pointed out, since it disregards Rules of Origin it's flawed. Doesn't mean it's flat out wrong though, it's an opinion.

Just a reminder what our FS thinks about bussines.

 
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