Brexit Phase Two - Trade

The German Vehicle manufactures association said 17% of German exports got to UK. So if UK purchases drop by 1/3 that’s still a drop in German exports, overall, of 5%
250k out of 5 million exports. ( these figures broadly match Deloitte’s)

That’s not going to decimate the European car industry. Remember that UK-produced cars in the EU will also suffer a 10% price rise. If European consumers behave same as UK ones, demand in UK- produces cars will fall, and intra-EU production will make up the difference. And the EU 27 is a much bigger market.

The only country in the world that trades solely under WTO rules is Mauritania.
They export Iron ore ...
And that’s it
Common sense might prevail , but not when one side still thinks it can pick and 3 of the 4 freedoms.

Back to Ford;
If the engines can’t be imported into the EU without paying duty, then the expense argument becomes a lot less clear. Not now, but when the next new model needs to be built. The people they need will be relocated. I don’t think the auto industry will drop of a cliff, but a slow decline until all that’s left are niche products

Airbus’s problems are different. As I understand unless an agreement is made with EASA - including ECJ oversight - parts made in the UK can’t get signed off to European requirements. Same with every single one of their suppliers ( no doubt an expert, or failing that a bluffer with an opinion, will correct me)

That’s without considering rules or origin, tight supply chains, and import duty considerations

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Ahh but now we are back to sales and profit again.
I honestly don't know what the figures are now but 10 years ago BMW made 70% more profit on a car sold in the UK than a car sold anywhere else in the world.

Ford, different case altogether as they aren't a european company. I can gaurantee you that right now Ford has a very large and expensive legal team working on a get around. They will find one too.

PSA will maintain its UK market share by imaginative use of Ellesmere Port, they'll huff and puff and threaten all sorts but 36% of their sales are in the UK. They will still be selling cars in the UK in three years time and they probably won't be paying tariffs

Renault, will probably atempt something similar using Nissan Sunderland, they are a major shareholder in Nissan afterall.

BMW, Hams Hall engine plant in the Midlands may go to cope with the downturn in sales if there is no trade deal. But that will be part of a company wide reduction

Mercedes, industry rumour is that they will probably shut a German factory without a trade deal

VW/Audi. All bets are off on that one. For various reasons it is going to hurt them most of all I'd say.

Airbus, as already commented by others, already has production facilities in China.
How does that work being outside the EU and UK production can't? Genuine question.
Asides from that, moving wing production out of the UK is going to cost them around a billion quid

Anyway, the point is that no trade deal is going to hurt EU manufacturers more than it is going to hurt UK ones and Deloitte reckon that UK manufacturers will actually benefit

The EU stance is going to hurt themselves more than it is going to hurt us, I think they probably fully understand that and once the game of brinksmanship is over we'll probably see sense prevail
All depends who blinks first really.
Utterly wrong.

Only one side ever suffers the consequences of war (the trade or shooting variety).
I suggest you go take a close look at just of much Irish import and export business transits through UK ports. Then look at the additional costs incurred by avoiding that.

When you've done that come back and explain to me how they are not going to suffer
You're very welcome.

In fact if it wasn't for the EU and Remainers making this as complicated as possible then we would be well on the way to an agreement by now! Most of the complexity is invented/inflated or just not there.
Please, do keep believing that. ^^

I for one cannot understand why a mighty Nation like the U.K. have not simply defeated the EU and Remainers by circumventing their invented complexity, instead of falling into the obvious trap of monthly negotiation rounds at the Ministerial level, plus more frequent negotiations at the technical level, with hundreds of submissions and planning rounds aimed at trying to resolve these apparently “invented” and “inflated” issues.

I mean, add in things like our agreement to the timing and content of negotiation rounds and the weight of Whitehall machinery devoted to resolving these “invented” and “inflated” issues including the creation of DExEU and DFIT and it may just seen there’s an element of complexity to Brexit.

Gosh. Maybe it’s not as simple as the elderly gentlemen of ARRSE perceive it to be? =-D
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