Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Yes, had a similar conversation with the sales manager at my long time Honda dealer.
They are rather looking forward to taking the brakes off of their imports as are the other Japanese makers. They all have full ranges of JDM models, that’s RHD, that they currently can’t import into the UK market. Good luck trying to sell the overpriced VW Transporters if the wide range of excellent Japanese vans were let lose on the UK market. Japanese light and medium class truck makers would also get a big new market.
I ordered quarter of a million quids worth of French vans for work last week.
I will probably do the same in the new year and again next summer.

Unless of course there is a 21% price rise on EU produced vehicles because of no trade deal.
Then I will simply buy vehicles from outside the EU.

No odds to me, just a different sales rep gets to buy me dinner
 

Auld-Yin

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Now, now; no need to get all shouty - it's just a little more nuanced that your thought process has, to date, allowed.

It means we'll leave without a specific trade deal in March. However,I believe a transition deal will be reached effectively maintaining the status quo.
Up early this sunny Sunday morning Mr Hunter!

Thank you for a clear vision of how you see things in 2019.

I have no real issues with a further transitional phase, provided we are no longer bound to the ECJ and that we stop paying money to Brussels other than for elements we chose to continue using, EASA for instance; we also need the ability to make trade deals with any other country in the world. Anything less than that then we should up the drawbridge and go it alone.

Basically, EU stop telling us what to do and we work together to sort out the relationships with each other.
 

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I ordered quarter of a million quids worth of French vans for work last week.
I will probably do the same in the new year and again next summer.

Unless of course there is a 21% price rise on EU produced vehicles because of no trade deal.
Then I will simply buy vehicles from outside the EU.

No odds to me, just a different sales rep gets to buy me dinner
Corruption rife in the van trade! :cool:
 
On reflection, it's been a rather busy few days for me,

I've heard it mooted that the EU is touting a tariff free deal with the US. So suddenly they might become free trade advocates by default. That of course, would mean the beginning of the end of a need for a Customs Union that Juncker is telling us we can't be part of and which we are constantly been told we don't want. This of course would mean the end of the Irish Border dispute. A silly me- all those things that remainers want to squabble about. Now of course if there is no CU there is no need for an overarching trade control row-which brings us back to real reason- the EU want us in , It wants control of the Finances and Merkel is falling out with Macron over that, because Merkel has had to politically eat her words about handing over control to Brussels to avoid war she made a few years back. Once Brussels has control of the finances the CM becomes largely a token. Ah well back to the drawing board, where some architecht might have a clue what exactly it is they want to create.
 
On reflection, it's been a rather busy few days for me,

I've heard it mooted that the EU is touting a tariff free deal with the US. So suddenly they might become free trade advocates by default. That of course, would mean the beginning of the end of a need for a Customs Union that Juncker is telling us we can't be part of and which we are constantly been told we don't want. This of course would mean the end of the Irish Border dispute. A silly me- all those things that remainers want to squabble about. Now of course if there is no CU there is no need for an overarching trade control row-which brings us back to real reason- the EU want us in , It wants control of the Finances and Merkel is falling out with Macron over that, because Merkel has had to politically eat her words about handing over control to Brussels to avoid war she made a few years back. Once Brussels has control of the finances the CM becomes largely a token. Ah well back to the drawing board, where some architecht might have a clue what exactly it is they want to create.

Has President Trump being concentrating their minds?
 
Ford are highly unlikely to build whole vehilces in the UK anytime soon.

Moving engine production abroad would be hugely expensive
The reason the UK builds so many engines apparently relates to skills base, certain regions have highly skilled engineering workforces, Ford have invested heavily in engine production

Its a similar story with Airbus and wing production, the workforce is highly skilled and highly efficient

The other erronous assumption lots of peole on here make is that all that engine production goes to the EU, it doesn't.

The Deloitte report is cold hard fact (regardless of whether you like it or not) and Graculus counters it with a vague article of if's and maybe's
No trade deal with the EU will cost EU car about £16 billion is sales, prediction is that UK produced sales will rise 17% and EU produced sales will drop 31% for the Germans and around 36% for the French.

The end result is that no trade deal will decimate the european car industry. THe UK car industry will thrive, I'm pretty sure its why PSA have bought Vauxhall and Renault will hold on tightly to their stake in Nissan.

All this talk and muttering of AIrbus and BMW is just part of the bargaining process.
Airbus build all of their wings in the UK, I'm told that moving that wing production would take 3 years and a billion quid.
BMW pulling out would lose them production of quarter of a million engines a year and somewhere in the region of 31% of their new vehicle sales.
Of course the reality is that no trade deal and revert WTO rules would mean BMW shutting their engine plant in the Midlands, it would also mean at least 18,000 job losses in Germany because the sales loss to EU manufacturers means factory closures across the EU

In the meantime, no trade deal means UK car production would be likely to rise from 1.8 million vehicles a year to 2.1 million.

This is cold hard analysed fact.
The French are being quite pragmatic and both PSA and Renault have a foothold in the UK and will exploit it if necessary. The Germans don't appear to have a Plan B so far

And all of this is why I personally am quite relaxed about Hard Brexit, EU manufacturing will suffer far more than UK.
Money talks, whatever the outcome the industrial giants will spend billions if necessary to keep trade going no matter what Merkel and Co say.

Take away the hysteria and posturing and it will all settle down. There will be short term pain but WTO rules would actually benefit the UK. Despite that I personally think its un-necessary and common sense says that a trade deal can be struck

Or Merkel can explain to the 60,000 Germans workers producing cars for the UK market why 1 in 3 of them is getting made redundant. Macron has the same dilema.

Remember, this isn't my opinion it is the results of a study by one of the worlds major accountancy firms.
Those who disagree should give Deloitte a call and tell them they are wrong. Myself I'd read the report and work it out from there.

Apologies for the long winded reply but it is a complex issue
The German Vehicle manufactures association said 17% of German exports got to UK. So if UK purchases drop by 1/3 that’s still a drop in German exports, overall, of 5%
250k out of 5 million exports. ( these figures broadly match Deloitte’s)

That’s not going to decimate the European car industry. Remember that UK-produced cars in the EU will also suffer a 10% price rise. If European consumers behave same as UK ones, demand in UK- produces cars will fall, and intra-EU production will make up the difference. And the EU 27 is a much bigger market.

The only country in the world that trades solely under WTO rules is Mauritania.
They export Iron ore ...
And that’s it
Common sense might prevail , but not when one side still thinks it can pick and 3 of the 4 freedoms.

Back to Ford;
If the engines can’t be imported into the EU without paying duty, then the expense argument becomes a lot less clear. Not now, but when the next new model needs to be built. The people they need will be relocated. I don’t think the auto industry will drop of a cliff, but a slow decline until all that’s left are niche products

Airbus’s problems are different. As I understand unless an agreement is made with EASA - including ECJ oversight - parts made in the UK can’t get signed off to European requirements. Same with every single one of their suppliers ( no doubt an expert, or failing that a bluffer with an opinion, will correct me)

That’s without considering rules or origin, tight supply chains, and import duty considerations


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The German Vehicle manufactures association said 17% of German exports got to UK. So if UK purchases drop by 1/3 that’s still a drop in German exports, overall, of 5%
250k out of 5 million exports. ( these figures broadly match Deloitte’s)

That’s not going to decimate the European car industry. Remember that UK-produced cars in the EU will also suffer a 10% price rise. If European consumers behave same as UK ones, demand in UK- produces cars will fall, and intra-EU production will make up the difference. And the EU 27 is a much bigger market.

The only country in the world that trades solely under WTO rules is Mauritania.
They export Iron ore ...
And that’s it
Common sense might prevail , but not when one side still thinks it can pick and 3 of the 4 freedoms.

Back to Ford;
If the engines can’t be imported into the EU without paying duty, then the expense argument becomes a lot less clear. Not now, but when the next new model needs to be built. The people they need will be relocated. I don’t think the auto industry will drop of a cliff, but a slow decline until all that’s left are niche products

Airbus’s problems are different. As I understand unless an agreement is made with EASA - including ECJ oversight - parts made in the UK can’t get signed off to European requirements. Same with every single one of their suppliers ( no doubt an expert, or failing that a bluffer with an opinion, will correct me)

That’s without considering rules or origin, tight supply chains, and import duty considerations


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And hey Airbus happily has parts made in China without ECJ oversight....
 
British trucks would be blocked from entering Europe under no-deal Brexit, industry leader warns

British lorries would be barred from entering Europe under a no-deal Brexit, according to an industry chief, who warned that British firms would be "crucified" by tariffs if Theresa May fails to secure a deal with the European Union.

James Hookham, deputy chief executive of the Freight Transport Association (FTA), told Business Insider that a no-deal Brexit would see Britain revert to an old set of international arrangements which handed Britain just 103 permits to cover the 300,000 journeys made by British trucks make to Europe every year.

That would, in essence, mean the bulk of Britain's lorry fleet was blocked from entering Europe the day after Brexit in March next year, should May fail to secure the transitional deal which is still being negotiated. This would affect hundreds if not thousands of businesses with EU customers.

"Time is running out," said Hookham. He said the chances of a no-deal Brexit appeared to have increased in recent weeks and described reports that British negotiators do not expect to make sufficient progress at next week's EU summit to sign a transitional deal as "depressing."

Speaking to BI this week, Hookham said the UK would also be compelled to reduce the number of permits to European lorries entering the country, resulting in a serious disruption to the flow of goods which Britain depends upon for food and the bulk of its trade.
 
British trucks would be blocked from entering Europe under no-deal Brexit, industry leader warns

British lorries would be barred from entering Europe under a no-deal Brexit, according to an industry chief, who warned that British firms would be "crucified" by tariffs if Theresa May fails to secure a deal with the European Union.

James Hookham, deputy chief executive of the Freight Transport Association (FTA), told Business Insider that a no-deal Brexit would see Britain revert to an old set of international arrangements which handed Britain just 103 permits to cover the 300,000 journeys made by British trucks make to Europe every year.

That would, in essence, mean the bulk of Britain's lorry fleet was blocked from entering Europe the day after Brexit in March next year, should May fail to secure the transitional deal which is still being negotiated. This would affect hundreds if not thousands of businesses with EU customers.

"Time is running out," said Hookham. He said the chances of a no-deal Brexit appeared to have increased in recent weeks and described reports that British negotiators do not expect to make sufficient progress at next week's EU summit to sign a transitional deal as "depressing."

Speaking to BI this week, Hookham said the UK would also be compelled to reduce the number of permits to European lorries entering the country, resulting in a serious disruption to the flow of goods which Britain depends upon for food and the bulk of its trade.
No planes to fly, now no trucks to roll.
Will the EU ban migrating British birds and fish too?
 
British trucks would be blocked from entering Europe under no-deal Brexit, industry leader warns

British lorries would be barred from entering Europe under a no-deal Brexit, according to an industry chief, who warned that British firms would be "crucified" by tariffs if Theresa May fails to secure a deal with the European Union.

James Hookham, deputy chief executive of the Freight Transport Association (FTA), told Business Insider that a no-deal Brexit would see Britain revert to an old set of international arrangements which handed Britain just 103 permits to cover the 300,000 journeys made by British trucks make to Europe every year.

That would, in essence, mean the bulk of Britain's lorry fleet was blocked from entering Europe the day after Brexit in March next year, should May fail to secure the transitional deal which is still being negotiated. This would affect hundreds if not thousands of businesses with EU customers.

"Time is running out," said Hookham. He said the chances of a no-deal Brexit appeared to have increased in recent weeks and described reports that British negotiators do not expect to make sufficient progress at next week's EU summit to sign a transitional deal as "depressing."

Speaking to BI this week, Hookham said the UK would also be compelled to reduce the number of permits to European lorries entering the country, resulting in a serious disruption to the flow of goods which Britain depends upon for food and the bulk of its trade.
That is bad news indeed.

Wagons delayed leaving UK damaging our exports.

Wagons delayed entering UK damaging our imports.


No mention of the consequences to our partners?

The pain is all ours.
 
Firstly, non-EU migration was 100% within the UK’s control.

Second, if it were truly the case that Leave voters didn’t care about immigration, particularly non-white immigration, why lie about Turkey being about to join the EU, why lie about being forced by the UE to accept a quota of refugees?

Immigration , Xenophobia were a big issue. Possibly decisive in such a close vote.

I’m don’t believe every sincere leave voter is racist, but it is disingenuous to pretend that leave voters ‘don’t have a problem’ with removing visa restrictions for India. I certainly don’t remember the campaign slogan ‘let’s kick out the Poles and replace then with Indians’


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but you do think all leave voters are racist, thick bigots. It's how you sooth the pain of losing. Simple fact. Most folk I know didn't vote leave to put walls up. Just leave the EU. And perhaps live life as Switzerland does.
 
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