Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Last month I spent an hour chewing the fat with the principal of a fairly large
(35 truck), car transporter firm.His opinions were largely formed by talking to car dealerships and national franchises.
His opinion was that the volume as well as the premium manifacturers in Europe will be bricking it at the thought of WTO .
This would put us outside their tariffs ring fence with an immediate fixed cost addition to absorb or pass on. Their rest of world competitors would even under WTO have a fixed cost reduction relative to current EU tarriff barriers.
However he expected the Koreans and Malays and Japanese would be in a rush to agree much more favourable ( free trade type) deals that would give them a huge price advantage over the likes of VAG as well as PSA even at the cheaper volume end of the market.
So I would say that he thought it really could be catastrophicly bad for European volume car makers if” treasure island” leaves with no deal.
This as I have been consistently saying since last September is almost a racing certainty now, the commission are not pragmatists nor particularly shrewd and faced with an existential threat to their very project have used their usual threatening, inflexible playbook. Their interest is not however a Stuttgart carworkers interest, if in the wee quiet moments some of the players are not having second thoughts over coming the c* nt. then they should be!


In my opinion ( and David G’s ) of course.
Presumably a factor in PSA buying Vauxhall.
They now have a factory outside of post Brexit europe
 
Last month I spent an hour chewing the fat with the principal of a fairly large
(35 truck), car transporter firm.His opinions were largely formed by talking to car dealerships and national franchises.
His opinion was that the volume as well as the premium manifacturers in Europe will be bricking it at the thought of WTO .
This would put us outside their tariffs ring fence with an immediate fixed cost addition to absorb or pass on. Their rest of world competitors would even under WTO have a fixed cost reduction relative to current EU tarriff barriers.
However he expected the Koreans and Malays and Japanese would be in a rush to agree much more favourable ( free trade type) deals that would give them a huge price advantage over the likes of VAG as well as PSA even at the cheaper volume end of the market.
So I would say that he thought it really could be catastrophicly bad for European volume car makers if” treasure island” leaves with no deal.
This as I have been consistently saying since last September is almost a racing certainty now, the commission are not pragmatists nor particularly shrewd and faced with an existential threat to their very project have used their usual threatening, inflexible playbook. Their interest is not however a Stuttgart carworkers interest, if in the wee quiet moments some of the players are not having second thoughts over coming the c* nt. then they should be!


In my opinion ( and David G’s ) of course.
Yes, had a similar conversation with the sales manager at my long time Honda dealer.
They are rather looking forward to taking the brakes off of their imports as are the other Japanese makers. They all have full ranges of JDM models, that’s RHD, that they currently can’t import into the UK market. Good luck trying to sell the overpriced VW Transporters if the wide range of excellent Japanese vans were let lose on the UK market. Japanese light and medium class truck makers would also get a big new market.
 
And most leavers don't have a problem with that. It was a remaIN myth that leavers were anti-immigration. We're just anti-uncontrolled, gang-f*ck immigration a la Anthony Blair et al in the Labour Party, and ever since.

If you have a skill we need, come on in. If you just want access to our welfare system... f*ck off.
Firstly, non-EU migration was 100% within the UK’s control.

Second, if it were truly the case that Leave voters didn’t care about immigration, particularly non-white immigration, why lie about Turkey being about to join the EU, why lie about being forced by the UE to accept a quota of refugees?

Immigration , Xenophobia were a big issue. Possibly decisive in such a close vote.

I’m don’t believe every sincere leave voter is racist, but it is disingenuous to pretend that leave voters ‘don’t have a problem’ with removing visa restrictions for India. I certainly don’t remember the campaign slogan ‘let’s kick out the Poles and replace then with Indians’


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Very good.

"This means that in the absence of special content deals, the bulk of UK assembled cars would not qualify for tariff-free treatment under a typical free trade deal."

I presume you read that bit? Just another non story really isn't it. All it actually says is that any free trade deals need to take that in to account. We don't currently have a free trade deal, never mind a a typical one.

It also works in reverse, BMW may need to build a new engine factory pretty sharpish, so might Ford and PSA

Ford alone build over 1.5 million engines in the UK but they dont assemble any vehicles.
BMW make over quarter of a million, all exported.

But feel free to continue to spout hysterical nonsense, you still aren't going to get your referendum re-run.
What’s more likely long term?

Ford move engine building out of the UK, or Ford move production of finished vehicles into the UK to go with their engine plant...and to hell with tariffs?


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JRM vs Verhofstadt over the EIRE hard border.



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JRM eloquently highlighting the EU Hyprocrisy.

EU makes the rules, however will flex the rules when the circumstances allow and its in the EU's interests. A rules based system ensuring the author/originator can 'choose' to amend & or amend when it suits.




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Of course it is different - you wouldnt answer the first. and still dont.

WTF doers that bold bit mean? You guys are so wrapped up in your own shoite you don't know what you are doing, thinking or considering.
Now, now; no need to get all shouty - it's just a little more nuanced that your thought process has, to date, allowed.

It means we'll leave without a specific trade deal in March. However,I believe a transition deal will be reached effectively maintaining the status quo.
 
JRM eloquently highlighting the EU Hyprocrisy.

EU makes the rules, however will flex the rules when the circumstances allow and its in the EU's interests. A rules based system ensuring the author/originator can 'choose' to amend & or amend when it suits.




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Indeed, I was going to comment about how poor the EU negotiating is but left it to the video as it's evident what standard they are at.

Apparently to some posters on here it's actually the UK that are clueless and useless at negotiating.....

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Indeed, I was going to comment about how poor the EU negotiating is but left it to the video as it's evident what standard they are at.

Apparently to some posters on here it's actually the UK that are clueless and useless at negotiating.....

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I fully concur, I'd like to see JRM do the same with Junker & perhaps Barnier, complete with tangible evidence of course.


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You've lost me there. I tried reading The GG but could not get in to it at all. Annoyed me rather than entertained. Never tried anything else by him.
It's fiction.
 
It's also quite concerning the anger and contempt that Verhofstadt displayed when he was being picked apart.

He appears to be either an unstable individual or well out of his depth.

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It's also quite concerning the anger and contempt that Verhofstadt displayed when he was being picked apart.

He appears to be either an unstable individual or well out of his depth.

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You mean, anger in noticeable form of defensive crossed arms?

The former EU MS PM, is clearly uncomfortable & out of his depth.


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I meant the countries economy. Tell me again how Brexit won't affect the economies of EU MS?
That remains to be seen but as I'm not working on the normal net (income tax free too) I can't see that being a problem, quite the opposite in fact!
E2A sorry for the late reply but I was attending the wedding of a Tadjik colleague yesterday, back at work today!
 
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Indeed, I was going to comment about how poor the EU negotiating is but left it to the video as it's evident what standard they are at.

Apparently to some posters on here it's actually the UK that are clueless and useless at negotiating.....

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Which explains why Davis is running rings round them.
 
No need, some of my acquaintances in the banking and financial services sector are proudly parading their Irish passports.
I never thought I’d say this, but I feel sullied, dirty even that people may think that I am somehow associated with such people.
Goes with the territory I'm afraid, no one side is squeaky
 
What’s more likely long term?

Ford move engine building out of the UK, or Ford move production of finished vehicles into the UK to go with their engine plant...and to hell with tariffs?


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Ford are highly unlikely to build whole vehilces in the UK anytime soon.

Moving engine production abroad would be hugely expensive
The reason the UK builds so many engines apparently relates to skills base, certain regions have highly skilled engineering workforces, Ford have invested heavily in engine production

Its a similar story with Airbus and wing production, the workforce is highly skilled and highly efficient

The other erronous assumption lots of peole on here make is that all that engine production goes to the EU, it doesn't.

The Deloitte report is cold hard fact (regardless of whether you like it or not) and Graculus counters it with a vague article of if's and maybe's
No trade deal with the EU will cost EU car about £16 billion is sales, prediction is that UK produced sales will rise 17% and EU produced sales will drop 31% for the Germans and around 36% for the French.

The end result is that no trade deal will decimate the european car industry. THe UK car industry will thrive, I'm pretty sure its why PSA have bought Vauxhall and Renault will hold on tightly to their stake in Nissan.

All this talk and muttering of AIrbus and BMW is just part of the bargaining process.
Airbus build all of their wings in the UK, I'm told that moving that wing production would take 3 years and a billion quid.
BMW pulling out would lose them production of quarter of a million engines a year and somewhere in the region of 31% of their new vehicle sales.
Of course the reality is that no trade deal and revert WTO rules would mean BMW shutting their engine plant in the Midlands, it would also mean at least 18,000 job losses in Germany because the sales loss to EU manufacturers means factory closures across the EU

In the meantime, no trade deal means UK car production would be likely to rise from 1.8 million vehicles a year to 2.1 million.

This is cold hard analysed fact.
The French are being quite pragmatic and both PSA and Renault have a foothold in the UK and will exploit it if necessary. The Germans don't appear to have a Plan B so far

And all of this is why I personally am quite relaxed about Hard Brexit, EU manufacturing will suffer far more than UK.
Money talks, whatever the outcome the industrial giants will spend billions if necessary to keep trade going no matter what Merkel and Co say.

Take away the hysteria and posturing and it will all settle down. There will be short term pain but WTO rules would actually benefit the UK. Despite that I personally think its un-necessary and common sense says that a trade deal can be struck

Or Merkel can explain to the 60,000 Germans workers producing cars for the UK market why 1 in 3 of them is getting made redundant. Macron has the same dilema.

Remember, this isn't my opinion it is the results of a study by one of the worlds major accountancy firms.
Those who disagree should give Deloitte a call and tell them they are wrong. Myself I'd read the report and work it out from there.

Apologies for the long winded reply but it is a complex issue
 
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