Brexit Phase Two - Trade

I have a sister who lives in France. She can barely speak to me on the subject of Brexit and is a bit prone to hysteria about it.
She sent me a link this morning to the BMW and Airbus threats to move manufactuing.
I sent her the Deloitte report and explained just how much Airbus would have to spend to start making wings outside the UK.
She hasn't spoken to me since......
So, German automotive production take a big hit and UK takes a big hit with some Japanese lookin to move, US tariffs affect us so we lose more sales.

Lose/lose then.
 
Its graculus and skid
I waiting for the incoherent, fantasist drooling skiplicker photie of yourself to come up. Anyone who wears articles of uniform long after they're no longer servicing needs a slapping.
 
Polls are accurate at the time they are asked and for the question they are asked. Weighting is also a valid technique and used in fields other than surveys. I would question the abilities of someone who tried to model a population without transforming their sample data to represent said population.

The real problem with polls is trying to get someone to predict their own, future behaviour. Most of us can't even accurately predict what we're going to have for dinner on a given night when asked.
or as they say round here, pseudo scientific bollox.
 
Read the report, that isn't what it says.

What it does say is that under WTO rules German car prices will rise 21% in the UK and as a result they will lose 31% of their sales in to the UK. Not all sales. The cost to European manufacturing will be £15,000,000,000 a year in sales. Add to that 18,000 German jobs in direct manufacturing alone.

Read the report, it is an eye opener.
Hard Brexit is a disaster for EU car manufacturing and good news for UK manufacturing.
Things change....

The Japanese ambassador has warned Theresa May that his country’s firms will quit Britain if a botched Brexit makes it “unprofitable” to stay.

Koji Tsuruoka laid bare growing nervousness about the impact of EU withdrawal on the Japanese car giants, banks and tech companies after meeting the Prime Minister in Downing Street.


Japan just issued a chilling warning to Theresa May over Brexit

The threat arises because EU “rules of origin” state that at least 55 per cent of a product's parts must come from within the EU if it is to benefit from free trade deals across the world.

EU car manufacturers already in talks about rejecting British-made parts because of Brexit, industry leader reveals
 
If true, all those fine chaps who wish to vote with their feet about Brexit and go to Europe will now find themselves in a fix with their UK quals.
Rest of the qualifed world welcome, just not us. Nothing to do with quals being of a poor standard, just because we voted out ?
Nice.
Remember that the paper he doesn't read has previous for outrageous fibbing. Link doesn't work either so it could have been pulled....
 
And most leavers don't have a problem with that. It was a remaIN myth that leavers were anti-immigration. We're just anti-uncontrolled, gang-f*ck immigration a la Anthony Blair et al in the Labour Party, and ever since.

If you have a skill we need, come on in. If you just want access to our welfare system... f*ck off.

Excellent. Well said.

Nothing to do with immigration, then?
 
Excellent. Well said.

Nothing to do with immigration, then?
The Brexit vote? In some circles yes, in most others no.

It's just moron remainers who are pushing the 'xenophobe' narrative to make up for the fact they were so out of touch with what was going on in their country and were throwing a tantrum because they lost...

Immigration is just bringing in what you require. We may need important skills, we may bring in folk to train in medical skills and send them back home to help their own countries.

We don't need uncontrolled movement of economic migrants.

If people had spotted that a little earlier, instead of screaming 'wacist, wacist' every time it was brought up we may well have avoided Brexit. Thankfully we didn't.
 
Last month I spent an hour chewing the fat with the principal of a fairly large
(35 truck), car transporter firm.His opinions were largely formed by talking to car dealerships and national franchises.
His opinion was that the volume as well as the premium manifacturers in Europe will be bricking it at the thought of WTO .
This would put us outside their tariffs ring fence with an immediate fixed cost addition to absorb or pass on. Their rest of world competitors would even under WTO have a fixed cost reduction relative to current EU tarriff barriers.
However he expected the Koreans and Malays and Japanese would be in a rush to agree much more favourable ( free trade type) deals that would give them a huge price advantage over the likes of VAG as well as PSA even at the cheaper volume end of the market.
So I would say that he thought it really could be catastrophicly bad for European volume car makers if” treasure island” leaves with no deal.
This as I have been consistently saying since last September is almost a racing certainty now, the commission are not pragmatists nor particularly shrewd and faced with an existential threat to their very project have used their usual threatening, inflexible playbook. Their interest is not however a Stuttgart carworkers interest, if in the wee quiet moments some of the players are not having second thoughts over coming the c* nt. then they should be!


In my opinion ( and David G’s ) of course.
Apart from the fact that our WTO schedules haven't been agreed yet, Japan and Korea have already said that they're unlikely to accept a straight transfer of the EU trade deal without renegotiation, you're spot on....

Japan has been among the most vocally negative about Brexit and explicitly said it would prioritise the EU for trade deals over Britain.

And

As with the other countries in a similar situation, this will not be straightforward – but British business have notably raised concerns that South Korea in particular will ask for concessions and favourable terms from the UK to keep continuity

Are countries really 'queuing up for trade deals' with Brexit Britain?

Lots more in the link.
 
Apart from the fact that our WTO schedules haven't been agreed yet, Japan and Korea have already said that they're unlikely to accept a straight transfer of the EU trade deal without renegotiation, you're spot on....

Japan has been among the most vocally negative about Brexit and explicitly said it would prioritise the EU for trade deals over Britain.

And

As with the other countries in a similar situation, this will not be straightforward – but British business have notably raised concerns that South Korea in particular will ask for concessions and favourable terms from the UK to keep continuity

Are countries really 'queuing up for trade deals' with Brexit Britain?

Lots more in the link.
They are just angling. Japan wont be interested in the EU once the bottom line starts getting affected. Nor will SK.
 
Excellent. Well said.

Nothing to do with immigration, then?
It's sometimes better to watch people hang themselves with their own argument.

Gotta love people railing against accusations that they voted leave as a protest against immigration, going on to rant about immigration in the same post.

Almost as good as watching @Auld-Yin claim that leaving the EU has nothing to with trade in the thread that he started about future trade relations with the EU.

Has the insanity ratcheted up a notch around here, or is it just me?
 
Cute that the belters quote the Grauniad and Independent as source, without a hint of embarrassment.
Personally, I'd want to kill myself.
 
And most leavers don't have a problem with that. It was a remaIN myth that leavers were anti-immigration. We're just anti-uncontrolled, gang-f*ck immigration a la Anthony Blair et al in the Labour Party, and ever since.

If you have a skill we need, come on in. If you just want access to our welfare system... f*ck off.
Sure champ...the DM and Express have stopped their anti immigrant articles then?
 
It's sometimes better to watch people hang themselves with their own argument.

Gotta love people railing against accusations that they voted leave as a protest against immigration, going on to rant about immigration in the same post.

Almost as good as watching @Auld-Yin claim that leaving the EU has nothing to with trade in the thread that he started about future trade relations with the EU.

Has the insanity ratcheted up a notch around here, or is it just me?

It's just normal levels of barking at the moment. It will get worse as they're gradually and increasingly exposed to the cliff-edge.

Then it will be everyone else's fault, as usual.
 
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