Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Auld-Yin

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Rubbish.

People by and large don't vote for being poorer.

Most would not give a toss about something as abstract as constitutional minutae once austerity ratchets up and their children's opportunities are sacrificed on the altar of illusory sovereignty.

This is my assertion based on 50 years of life experience and 30 years participating in democracy, so feel free to dismiss it.

But most folks just want to get on in life.
Mmmonnngggg!!!!!!!
 

Auld-Yin

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You mean when the Lords breaks the Salisbury Convention regarding manifesto commitments? I'm looking forward to that too. Hopefully it will involve several hundred unelected parasites getting the heave ho..
Thing is it is only a Convention so the dlimebags would find a way round it. The HofL have been warned several times, both in their chamber and elsewhere, that their very existence is under severe threat if they continue to flaunt the government of the day. I believe most of them don't care as they see their money trough sitting in Brussels rather than Westminster.
 

Auld-Yin

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If we crash out of the EU without in March next year, I'm happy to bet £50 (if it's worth the paper it's written on) to the service charity of choice we'll be begging to rejoin within a year.
I believe some Remainers will be clamouring for a return to the Borg. However, the country won't!
 
Except that people have often voted for options which have left them worse off, as even the most cursory review of the Blair/Brown public expenditure and the related borrowing policy during that period demonstrates.

I do dismiss your assertions to a great extent because they assume, amongst other things, that everyone's experience of the EU is economically and socially positive. Further, you have consistently lacked the imagination to understand why people might dissent from your view, even if you don't agree with it.

You have no idea what the long term economic or political future of either the UK or the EU will be and your default assumption that the UK will crater whilst the EU goes from strength to strength is simply remedial.

I get that don't understand or want to engage on the constitutional piece but it's unavoidable. For example, what's all the controversy over the status of the Irish border if not a constitutional question?
People didn't vote deliberately to be poorer when voting for New Labour.

People slag them off nearly a decade after leaving office.

Every study predicts brexit will make the UK poorer. Add friction and bin all current trade deals by leaving the EU it's not rocket science to predict the outcome.

I just posted the impact on 900k automotive jobs.

Do you think many of them will think it's worth it for constitutional reasons if they end up on the dole.

I say again, most people simply want to get on.

There's no brexit dividend. Only more austerity, or possibly a Corbyn premiership making things even worse.

The brexit voting areas who've been left behind are shooting themselves in the foot.

Negative Brexit forecasts revealed

Parts of the UK that backed a Leave vote would face the heaviest hit as a result of Brexit, according to estimates by government officials.
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
Except that people have often voted for options which have left them worse off, as even the most cursory review of the Blair/Brown public expenditure and the related borrowing policy during that period demonstrates.

I do dismiss your assertions to a great extent because they assume, amongst other things, that everyone's experience of the EU is economically and socially positive. Further, you have consistently lacked the imagination to understand why people might dissent from your view, even if you don't agree with it.

You have no idea what the long term economic or political future of either the UK or the EU will be and your default assumption that the UK will crater whilst the EU goes from strength to strength is simply remedial.

I get that don't understand or want to engage on the constitutional piece but it's unavoidable. For example, what's all the controversy over the status of the Irish border if not a constitutional question?
The problem with the Irish border is more than conshtitutional. It’s been done to death.


There’s a simple way round it, new words for the customs union for the single market. If that doesn’t happen then the sum total of HMGs preparation for Brexit has been the building off two massive lorry parks which wont be ready by March.
 
As we import more from the EU than we export to it, it's just possible that the pain inflicted on EU countries will be even greater than the pain inflicted on the EU.

The UK (for example), is a major export market for German cars. Should those exports be held up and jobs be lost in Germany as a result, I suspect questions would be asked of the German government as to why.

Wordsmith
These German car manufacturers have been predicted as riding to our rescue since before the referendum. As yet, not even the sound of distant hooves.
 
:) :) :) . . . .

 
AfD destroys Merkel: “Remove this woman from her position! Protect the lives of the people!”

Published by: Voice of Europe 15 June 2018

The end for Angela Merkel could be near. After several asylum scandals, migrant murders and problematic forms of misbehaviour she has lost her credibility.

The Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) Gottfried Curio even asked her to step down to “protect the lives of the people”.


AfD destroys Merkel: "Remove this woman from her position! Protect the lives of the people!"
 
END OF MERKEL would trigger 'uncontrollable' EU-wide break-up: Europe fears 'nightmare'

THE biggest threat to the EU is the imminent collapse of Angela Merkel's fragile coalition, which would lead to a Europe-wide breakup "in an uncontrollable way" according to a leading left-wing and pro-EU commentator.


PUBLISHED: By Oli Smith, EXPRESS.CO.UK, on Monday 18 June 2018.

END OF MERKEL would trigger 'uncontrollable' EU-wide break-up: Europe fears 'nightmare'


Good job she’s still polling at 50 percent satisfaction back in Germany then.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Good job she’s still polling at 50 percent satisfaction back in Germany then.
Best tell that to the German media who have been expressing doubts about her long term survival for some time.

Trapped in the Past: Increasing Headwinds for Angela Merkel - SPIEGEL ONLINE - International
Just a few months ago, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was being described as the new leader of the free world. But recently she has been having trouble getting her way even in Berlin and Europe. Her days of dominance appear to be over.
The wheels also appear to be falling off of the Franco-German alliance that's been the the driving force behind the EU for so long.

Europe's Sputtering Motor: France and Germany Far Apart on EU Reform - SPIEGEL ONLINE - International
The cabinets of Germany and France are set to meet on Tuesday, but the two countries remain far apart when it comes to eurozone reform. Paris is disappointed with Germany's response to Emmanuel Macron's proposals.
While the Germans are also getting worried at Trump taking aim at German exporters using German manipulation of the euro and the protectionist barriers around the single market to target the US. Trump has decided two can play at that game.

Economic Trumpism: U.S. President Makes Life Tough for German Companies - SPIEGEL ONLINE - International
Seldom has an American president exploited the country's economic power to the degree the Trump administration has. Washington appears to be attacking German companies at every opportunity.
As stated before, there are dark clouds on the EU horizon.

Wordsmith
 
These German car manufacturers have been predicted as riding to our rescue since before the referendum. As yet, not even the sound of distant hooves.

I should stop worrying about the German car industry. They need the UK far more than the e-aware UK based car makers needs Germany. The futures electric, and the Germans who place such high reliance on their cars percieved technical prowess to garner sales are missing the e-boat.

The Arrival of Tesla: German Auto Giants Face an Existential Challenge - SPIEGEL ONLINE - International
 
Some of the required technology is being developed regardless; I still think that Jon Thompson was got at by Philip Hammond.
The day a government project delivers on time and on spec without vastly breaking budget you can colour me shocked....
 
I've made the correct decision based on the facts at hand (and still at hand). And my own outlook. I have always anticipated and accepted that there will be some pain in the transition from EU diner state to being free from the EU yoke.
would this be the technology that already exists and is in use in many ports of entry around the world...
Read what @Historyman wrote. It doesn’t yet exist


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As we import more from the EU than we export to it, it's just possible that the pain inflicted on EU countries will be even greater than the pain inflicted on the EU.

The UK (for example), is a major export market for German cars. Should those exports be held up and jobs be lost in Germany as a result, I suspect questions would be asked of the German government as to why.

Wordsmith
The German car industry myth? Really?


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Hardware can be a problem. The tendency for any large project is to spec the minimum that is thought will allow reasonable performance. The system runs fine when it starts up, but as it comes under increasing load it starts to slow to a crawl. Theoretically speaking, that's not a problem with the cloud - you can spin up more virtual servers. But you still have to have the hardware to spin up the virtual servers from.

I don't know what HMG does about the cloud. I would hope it runs it's own private cloud and doesn't depend on commercial ones. If so, cost cutting doesn't pay. Adding 25% more hardware so you have more virtual servers to spin up at need would not add a lot to project costs. Lets hope someone had the sense to do that.

As to going to Fujitsu, best go to a big software company such as Oracle, IBM or SAP. It'll cost more, but they understand far more about the software. (And in the case of companies like Oracle who generally won't disclose the source code, there's a far better chance bugs will get sorted out).

Wordsmith
You're demonstrating how much of a Scooby you don't have again. If you weren't such a geet Jessie I'd point you in the direction of G-Cloud.

Fujitsu are involved in G-Cloud bit time and have provided services since it started. It isn't best to go to a big software company, unless you're willing to employ the support staff needed. Which UKgov isn't. So a service provider it is then.

Oracle are well known for effing over the USAF for $1 billion. Way to to go Cletus.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
The German car industry myth? Really?
Some myth.

About 1 in 7 German cars are sold in the UK
About one in seven cars made in Germany are sold in Britain. It is true that more German cars are exported to the UK than anywhere else.
Our trade deficit with the EU in goods and services with the EU is about £70 billion. (Same reference link as above). As such, the EU will be hurt slightly worse than the UK by an interruption in trade.

Wordsmith

(Formatting problem sorted)
 
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