Brexit Phase Two - Trade

As we import more from the EU than we export to it, it's just possible that the pain inflicted on EU countries will be even greater than the pain inflicted on the EU.

The UK (for example), is a major export market for German cars. Should those exports be held up and jobs be lost in Germany as a result, I suspect questions would be asked of the German government as to why.

Wordsmith
That's been done to death.

German industry isn't going to compromise the SM CU for a UK sweetheart deal.

This situation has been created by the UK for the thousandth time...

German industry warns UK not to expect help in Brexit negotiations

Dieter Kempf, president of the BDI, the federation of German industries, said: “Defending the single market, a key European project, must be the priority for the European Union. Europe must maintain the integrity of the single market and its four freedoms: goods, capital, services, and labour.

“It is the responsibility of the British government to limit the damage on both sides of the Channel. Over the coming months, it will be extraordinarily difficult to avert negative effects on British businesses in particular.”

And Ingo Kramer, president of the confederation of German employers’ associations (BDA), told the Observer: “The single market is one of the major assets of the EU. Access to the single market requires the acceptance of all four single market freedoms.

“The UK will remain a very important partner for us, but we need a fair deal for both sides respecting this principle. The cohesion of the remaining 27 EU member states has highest priority.”
 
we've found the solution you halfwit. Alas the EU are still in 'non' mode. I'm pretty sure grown ups will get involved shortly. What with the shenanigans in Germany and Italy.
Who are these mythical grown ups people keep referring to? Do they ride unicorns over rainbow bridges? If you expect matron to step in last minute to prevent you from burning your fingers because you deliberately set your toys on fire you'll be disappointed. The grown ups seem to agree with Michel Barnier.
 
Whilst we're on the subject of automotive industry, worth reposting the likely impact on the UK automotive industry.

As anyone same realises, Europe is looking at this situation in the frame of , 'is the UK insane enough to blow it's own brains out'?

Brinkmanship

From the attached parliamentary study,

The automotive sector is one of the most productive and successful in the UK,
employing, directly or indirectly, over 900,000 people and generating almost one tenth
of the country’s manufacturing output. The automotive sector in Europe is heavily
integrated, with highly complex and efficient supply chains relying on the friction-free
transfer of components across the continent. The sector is highly competitive, with high
volumes and low profit margins. UK manufacturing plants have in recent years proved
successful in winning competitions for the construction of cars for the European
market, where the majority of our exports go. The single market and customs union
has been instrumental in forming the regulatory and trading environment which has
produced a diverse market with competitive prices for UK consumers.
We conclude that leaving the EU without a deal would undoubtedly be hugely damaging
to the UK automotive sector, more so than to other European countries. It would involve
the introduction of a 10 per cent tariff on cars and, because of the competitive nature
of the business, the shift of volume manufacturing to countries remaining in the EU.
Because mass-produced cars in the UK are less than a quarter “British” for trade deal
purposes, we recommend that the Government should prioritise securing the roll-over
of existing EU Free Trade Agreements with the necessary amendments to allow UK
content to count as EU for rules of origin purposes. New trade deals will also need to
accommodate the largely European content of cars built in the UK.
Non-tariff barriers, in the form of border delays and increased bureaucracy, will
also affect UK competitiveness. We recommend that the Government should, in its
negotiations, place a high premium on securing frictionless trade for the automotive
sector.
On the key issue of the future regulatory regime, we have not identified any potential
benefits from divergence from the EU, only costs. We recommend that the Government
seeks in the negotiations to preserve existing arrangements for the certification of
vehicles throughout the EU, whether as part of a Mutual Recognition Agreement or
some alternative arrangement. In order to maximise our trade opportunities with
our biggest trading partner, and to provide certainty to global manufacturers, the
Government should also aim to retain regulatory alignment with the EU regulatory
framework for the short to medium term.
We looked hard at potential opportunities arising from Brexit. We found that it is
unrealistic to expect an expansion of trade overseas to outweigh the loss of trade to
Europe arising from a hard Brexit. Furthermore, any new bilateral trade deals secured
by the Government are unlikely to lead directly to a significant increase in investment
and jobs in the UK automotive sector. Trade deals are helpful, but not a pre-requisite
for improving exports in the automotive sector. Retaining good access to the single
market is more important than securing the freedom to secure new trade deals with
third countries.
 

Attachments

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
That's been done to death.

German industry isn't going to compromise the SM CU for a UK sweetheart deal.

This situation has been created by the UK for the thousandth time...

German industry warns UK not to expect help in Brexit negotiations

Dieter Kempf, president of the BDI, the federation of German industries, said: “Defending the single market, a key European project, must be the priority for the European Union. Europe must maintain the integrity of the single market and its four freedoms: goods, capital, services, and labour.

“It is the responsibility of the British government to limit the damage on both sides of the Channel. Over the coming months, it will be extraordinarily difficult to avert negative effects on British businesses in particular.”

And Ingo Kramer, president of the confederation of German employers’ associations (BDA), told the Observer: “The single market is one of the major assets of the EU. Access to the single market requires the acceptance of all four single market freedoms.



“The UK will remain a very important partner for us, but we need a fair deal for both sides respecting this principle. The cohesion of the remaining 27 EU member states has highest priority.”

I've done my bit in helping the the German car industry during this difficult period. Have you bought your BM yet?

Given your fondness for walking the streets, getting involved in direct action I'm surprised you haven't championed this idea.

Or are you holding out for the post Brexit victory Reliant Spitfire?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Who are these mythical grown ups people keep referring to? Do they ride unicorns over rainbow bridges? If you expect matron to step in last minute to prevent you from burning your fingers because you deliberately set your toys on fire you'll be disappointed. The grown ups seem to agree with Michel Barnier.
Thank you for your impartial, reasoned analysis of the problem.

There are difficulties on both sides. In the UK we have a PM who dithers and is unable to supply leadership. On the EU side we have negotiators who are committed to the Projekt - the eventual formation of a United States of Europe and are determined to inflict penal conditions on the UK for leaving.

It's a toxic mix.

Wordsmith
 
This is a truly wild assertion. Nobody took an informed decision. Nobody knew the consequences. How much of your time discussing the pros and cons on the doorstep did you spend speaking about solutions to the Irish border issue? Or the need to remain in some European agencies, or whether anyone was talking about leaving the single market, or whether two years was realistic, or the complexity of international trade treaties, or whether a narrow majority would be sufficient to carry such a monumental change through? I had all sorts of concerns, but nothing on the scale of what has come to pass.

That such a massive choice was forced on us with so little credible information was a truly epic failure of democracy and we are paying the price in full. I have always had faith that our democracy is stable and generally steers in the right direction - the decision to decided membership of the EU by a short notice referendum completely destroyed that. Leave or remain our naivety was stunning.
The process taking us out of Europe has a greater democratic legitimacy than the process which took us into Europe and increasingly incorporated us into a pan-European system that is proving highly problematical to extract ourselves from.

Had the result gone the other way, I suspect you'd have extolled the wisdom of crowds. How well does any electorate ever truly understand the issues when asked to vote yet, strangely, in the UK at least, they tend to elect the best available option.

The UK electorate was asked to make a major but single constitutional decision on the basis of a binary choice which essentially boiled down to a question of whether people wanted the enhanced economic performance inherent in unfettered access to European markets (Remain) or a decrease in the democratic deficit inherent in subordination to the limited democracy of the statist/corporatist political system which drives the EU (Leave). Everything else, however complex, difficult to resolve or deeply felt, is simply detail and flows from that choice.

I think a lot of people understood the basics of the referendum in those terms and the two competing themes are the basis of the feuding on all the Arrse Brexit threads.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
F-F, if we are looking for accuracy perhaps the title of this thread should be changed to "Remains - Sore Losers Thread".

They are still fighting the referendum they lost instead of moving forward to get the UK into the best position posible outwith the EU. Because of that stance Britain is now in a much weaker negiotiating stance, hence the rubbish about the Irish borders. No doubt once the border issue is settled on Ireland the EU will move on to Gibraltar, Cyprus SBAs and anywhere else they can make mischief rather than come to a working agreement with us..
 
Who are these mythical grown ups people keep referring to? Do they ride unicorns over rainbow bridges? If you expect matron to step in last minute to prevent you from burning your fingers because you deliberately set your toys on fire you'll be disappointed. The grown ups seem to agree with Michel Barnier.
Calm down deary. If sense isn't restored across the CHannel we'll just crash out. It'll be a bit bumpy but then the journey will be worth it. Like your glimpse of the sea as you drive to the beach.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I think a lot of people understood the basics of the referendum in those terms and the two competing themes are the basis of the feuding on all the Arrse Brexit threads.
It's worth noting that the winning margin for the referendum - about 4% is roughly the same as would give a narrow win or a minority government in a General Election. Yet despite the small winning margin, no-one contests the legitimacy of the result.

Also, as repeatedly flagged in this thread, no one on the remain side wishes to project the shape of the EU in 10 years time and whether it would be in the UK's interest to belong to an institution committed to 'ever closer political and financial integration'. The equivalent of turning up at a railway station and getting on a train without any idea of the train's destination.

Wordsmith
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
Thank you for your impartial, reasoned analysis of the problem.

There are difficulties on both sides. In the UK we have a PM who dithers and is unable to supply leadership. On the EU side we have negotiators who are committed to the Projekt - the eventual formation of a United States of Europe and are determined to inflict penal conditions on the UK for leaving.

It's a toxic mix.

Wordsmith
We voted for this, leaving was not imposed by Europe. The European negotiators shouldn’t be held responsible for wanting what’s right for their own country. Its just a pity our lot aren’t doing the same for us.
The very thing the leavers seem to be banging on about most, ie: the USE. Thanks to us having no say or influence in Europe or its future the brexiters have almost guaranteed it.
Well done.
 
The process taking us out of Europe has a greater democratic legitimacy than the process which took us into Europe and increasingly incorporated us into a pan-European system that is proving highly problematical to extract ourselves from.

Had the result gone the other way, I suspect you'd have extolled the wisdom of crowds. How well does any electorate ever truly understand the issues when asked to vote yet, strangely, in the UK at least, they tend to elect the best available option.

The UK electorate was asked to make a major but single constitutional decision on the basis of a binary choice which essentially boiled down to a question of whether people wanted the enhanced economic performance inherent in unfettered access to European markets (Remain) or a decrease in the democratic deficit inherent in subordination to the limited democracy of the statist/corporatist political system which drives the EU (Leave). Everything else, however complex, difficult to resolve or deeply felt, is simply detail and flows from that choice.

I think a lot of people understood the basics of the referendum in those terms and the two competing themes are the basis of the feuding on all the Arrse Brexit threads.
Rubbish.

People by and large don't vote for being poorer.

Most would not give a toss about something as abstract as constitutional minutae once austerity ratchets up and their children's opportunities are sacrificed on the altar of illusory sovereignty.

This is my assertion based on 50 years of life experience and 30 years participating in democracy, so feel free to dismiss it.

But most folks just want to get on in life.
 
F-F, if we are looking for accuracy perhaps the title of this thread should be changed to "Remains - Sore Losers Thread".

They are still fighting the referendum they lost instead of moving forward to get the UK into the best position posible outwith the EU. Because of that stance Britain is now in a much weaker negiotiating stance, hence the rubbish about the Irish borders. No doubt once the border issue is settled on Ireland the EU will move on to Gibraltar, Cyprus SBAs and anywhere else they can make mischief rather than come to a working agreement with us..
Absolute cobblers. The UK has a weak negotiating stance as the government has failed to prepare for Brexit. Simple as that.

Ignoring the Irish border is a good example. The GFA is an international treaty that any credible nation would stick to. The UK still does not have a plan in place to deal with it. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.

Still, the delusional position you take is what has killed Brexit. Making it work would have required a decade or so of careful, detailed work. What we got was a bunch of chancers cuffing it backed by a bunch of reality denying moonhowlers. Reality hurts, doesn't it.
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
Rubbish.

People by and large don't vote for being poorer.

Most would not give a toss about something as abstract as constitutional minutae once austerity ratchets up and their children's opportunities are sacrificed on the altar of illusory sovereignty.

This is my assertion based on 50 years of life experience and 30 years participating in democracy, so feel free to dismiss it.

But most folks just want to get on in life.

I’m waiting for the show of support for the democratic legitimacy when the vote in the HoC and the Lords doesn’t go their way.
 
It's worth noting that the winning margin for the referendum - about 4% is roughly the same as would give a narrow win or a minority government in a General Election. Yet despite the small winning margin, no-one contests the legitimacy of the result.

Also, as repeatedly flagged in this thread, no one on the remain side wishes to project the shape of the EU in 10 years time and whether it would be in the UK's interest to belong to an institution committed to 'ever closer political and financial integration'. The equivalent of turning up at a railway station and getting on a train without any idea of the train's destination.

Wordsmith
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
Absolute cobblers. The UK has a weak negotiating stance as the government has failed to prepare for Brexit. Simple as that.

Ignoring the Irish border is a good example. The GFA is an international treaty that any credible nation would stick to. The UK still does not have a plan in place to deal with it. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.

Still, the delusional position you take is what has killed Brexit. Making it work would have required a decade or so of careful, detailed work. What we got was a bunch of chancers cuffing it backed by a bunch of reality denying moonhowlers. Reality hurts, doesn't it.

Not if you ignore it, which seems to be the default option for the brexiters on here.
 
Thank you for your impartial, reasoned analysis of the problem.

There are difficulties on both sides. In the UK we have a PM who dithers and is unable to supply leadership. On the EU side we have negotiators who are committed to the Projekt - the eventual formation of a United States of Europe and are determined to inflict penal conditions on the UK for leaving.

It's a toxic mix.

Wordsmith
But you knew that when you voted so that can hardly come as a surprise and even less as an obstacle.

I'll ask again: who are these grown ups people seem to be waiting for to step in?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Still, the delusional position you take is what has killed Brexit. Making it work would have required a decade or so of careful, detailed work. What we got was a bunch of chancers cuffing it backed by a bunch of reality denying moonhowlers. Reality hurts, doesn't it.
I look forward to your impending meltdown when we exit the EU in Match of next year as unavoidably specified by Article 50. The only question is on what terms we leave.

Wordsmith
 
I look forward to your impending meltdown when we exit the EU in Match of next year as unavoidably specified by Article 50. The only question is on what terms we leave.

Wordsmith
We'll either leave on disastrous terms that will bounce us right back in or in name only which will lead, fairly soon, to a move to get back in as it was all rather pointless. Still, as long as you're happy.

And if we have a transition period as the government want does that still count as leaving?
 
Again you dodge reality and spout a cloud of meaningless arm wavey drivel. Neither will the WTO.

So either we deal with the detail or we suffer; expecting the world to suddenly change to suit is is nonsense indeed. Abandoning treaties we've signed - ie the GFA - is monumentally stupid too.

But feel free to keep on with the conversation in your head that does nothing to deal with reality. Like I said, that's what's killing Brexit.
who's dodging what? BY what stretch of the imagination are people not held responsible for their actions in respect of legality. "Excuse me mr box of Bolts, you have misdesribed yourself as fertiliser!" But I am interested in your latter comment- empirical evidence would refute that. Could I just remind you that the GFA was the result of them shooting at us and attempting to usurp the authority of the UK . Seems they're still at it by one subterfuge after another. So much for the GFA. You do realise that should the EU manage to force us out of the NI GFA will be meaningless, but I wouldn't give much for Anglo Irish relations in England Proper.
 
who's dodging what? BY what stretch of the imagination are people not held responsible for their actions in respect of legality. "Excuse me mr box of Bolts, you have misdesribed yourself as fertiliser!" But I am interested in your latter comment- empirical evidence would refute that. Could I just remind you that the GFA was the result of them shooting at us and attempting to usurp the authority of the UK . Seems they're still at it by one subterfuge after another. So much for the GFA. You do realise that should the EU manage to force us out of the NI GFA will be meaningless, but I wouldn't give much for Anglo Irish relations in England Proper.
Eh? Let's try again. How will the UK meet its obligations under the GFA on the Irish border. Go on, how will we. In a manner consistent with being a 21st century nation state.

Of course if we break up the UK to make Brexit work the problem goes away, as you say. Personally I think destroying the country is too high a price.
 
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