Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Very broad brush, the amount of money in the economy had shrunk due to the need to write off bad debts. QE was an accounting trick to put back the lost money back into the economy and get it going again. It also helped haul the banks out of the deep smeg they had got into through irresponsible lending.

Unfortunately, all the major economies became junkies addicted to QE. As such, a 'temporary' measure has been ongoing for 10 years now in some economies.

Wordsmith
correct me if I got the wrong end of this. ISTR After the Bailout the banks were told they had to up their reserves so whilst the Government was urging them to lend their argument was they couldn't. So having failed in the first place they stuck two fingers up and the Government had to intervene again. This harks back to demand made by the ECB to come clean 2009 with the obvious end result. This originally led to my thinking that the BNP statement made prior to the crash about bad debts may have been engineered. After all they had nothing to lose by the status quo and DB were up to their necks as well.
 
More pointless expenses

Brexit: Technology-based customs system 'could cost £20bn'

The post-Brexit customs system favoured by Boris Johnson and other leading Brexiteers could cost businesses up to £20bn a year, officials have suggested.

The chief executive of HM Revenue and Customs told MPs firms would have to pay £32.50 for each customs declaration under the so-called "max fac" solution.

John Thompson said any new system could take up to five years to fully work.

We know that there were in 2016 almost 200m intra-EU consignments. So that is the base number. That has been audited by the NAO and is in a report on the customs declaration service.

The question is, how much does it cost to complete a customs declaration? We’ve done some work ourselves. There have been at least two independent reports, one by the University of Nottingham business school and one by KPMG earlier in the year. The answer to that question is it’s between £20 and £55. You can’t average it out because of weighting but for ministers we’ve settled on £32.50 per customs declaration.

So you’ve got 200m customs declarations at £32.50. That’s £6.5bn.

[That’s on the UK side. There are declarations required on the EU side too] so you double that number, probably. That takes you then to £13bn.

You’ve then got the question about what might be the requirements from the European Union on rules of origin. Is this cheese from Cheddar? It’s quite difficult to estimate that, but it would be reasonable to think that it is several billions pounds more.

So you need to think about the highly streamlined customs arrangement costing businesses somewhere in the late teens of billions of pounds, somewhere between £17bn and £20bn. And the primary driver here is the fact that there are customs declarations.
 
More pointless expenses

Brexit: Technology-based customs system 'could cost £20bn'

The post-Brexit customs system favoured by Boris Johnson and other leading Brexiteers could cost businesses up to £20bn a year, officials have suggested.

The chief executive of HM Revenue and Customs told MPs firms would have to pay £32.50 for each customs declaration under the so-called "max fac" solution.

John Thompson said any new system could take up to five years to fully work.

We know that there were in 2016 almost 200m intra-EU consignments. So that is the base number. That has been audited by the NAO and is in a report on the customs declaration service.

The question is, how much does it cost to complete a customs declaration? We’ve done some work ourselves. There have been at least two independent reports, one by the University of Nottingham business school and one by KPMG earlier in the year. The answer to that question is it’s between £20 and £55. You can’t average it out because of weighting but for ministers we’ve settled on £32.50 per customs declaration.

So you’ve got 200m customs declarations at £32.50. That’s £6.5bn.

[That’s on the UK side. There are declarations required on the EU side too] so you double that number, probably. That takes you then to £13bn.

You’ve then got the question about what might be the requirements from the European Union on rules of origin. Is this cheese from Cheddar? It’s quite difficult to estimate that, but it would be reasonable to think that it is several billions pounds more.

So you need to think about the highly streamlined customs arrangement costing businesses somewhere in the late teens of billions of pounds, somewhere between £17bn and £20bn. And the primary driver here is the fact that there are customs declarations.

Not the same call me ‘Jon’ Jonathon Thompson that made rather a Horlick of running MoD?
 
More pointless expenses

Brexit: Technology-based customs system 'could cost £20bn'

The post-Brexit customs system favoured by Boris Johnson and other leading Brexiteers could cost businesses up to £20bn a year, officials have suggested.

The chief executive of HM Revenue and Customs told MPs firms would have to pay £32.50 for each customs declaration under the so-called "max fac" solution.

John Thompson said any new system could take up to five years to fully work.

We know that there were in 2016 almost 200m intra-EU consignments. So that is the base number. That has been audited by the NAO and is in a report on the customs declaration service.

The question is, how much does it cost to complete a customs declaration? We’ve done some work ourselves. There have been at least two independent reports, one by the University of Nottingham business school and one by KPMG earlier in the year. The answer to that question is it’s between £20 and £55. You can’t average it out because of weighting but for ministers we’ve settled on £32.50 per customs declaration.

So you’ve got 200m customs declarations at £32.50. That’s £6.5bn.

[That’s on the UK side. There are declarations required on the EU side too] so you double that number, probably. That takes you then to £13bn.

You’ve then got the question about what might be the requirements from the European Union on rules of origin. Is this cheese from Cheddar? It’s quite difficult to estimate that, but it would be reasonable to think that it is several billions pounds more.

So you need to think about the highly streamlined customs arrangement costing businesses somewhere in the late teens of billions of pounds, somewhere between £17bn and £20bn. And the primary driver here is the fact that there are customs declarations.

George is a big fan:

 
Given that the EU imports more to us than we export to them, the Treasury would rightly anticipate making a tidy profit on Customs declarations. It is not all one-way traffic.
What about all those companies that have stated to parliament that their JIT manufacturing operations will be compromised should this kind of friction occur?

If chunks of your tax base relocate, is it still profitable?
 
What about all those companies that have stated to parliament that their JIT manufacturing operations will be compromised should this kind of friction occur?

If chunks of your tax base relocate, is it still profitable?
Then companies from countries who now have frictionless trade with the UK will seek to take advantage of the gap in the marketplace. Business, like nature, abhors a vacuum.
 
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