Brexit Phase Two - Trade

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Academic.

The EUs refusal to negotiate in good faith has forced planning for a hard BREXIT on HMG.
Enjoy the fun and games - and thank your figure head Ms Miller.
They should have been planning from the get go. Red lines and talking bollocks could force it. Are you and adviser to HMG on Brexit?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Guess what - Brussels going back on its word.

Brussels breaking Brexit bill promises by freezing UK out of Galileo satellite programme
Brussels is failing to honour promises it made during the Brexit bill agreement by shutting British businesses out of the €10 billion (£8.8 billion) Galileo satellite navigation system, the UK has warned. The warning over the €45 billion financial settlement threatens to further sour negotiations over Galileo, which has become a key flashpoint in the Brexit negotiations which reopened in Brussels this week.

British ministers are furious over a French-led move to freeze UK companies out of hundreds of millions of pounds worth of contracts for the system, in a move they say contradicts clear assurances given to Britain during the Brexit bill negotiations.
As said repeatedly before, Brussels is quietly cr*pping itself about the UK making a success of Brexit and showing the other member states of the EU that you can flourish over the Brussels straitjacket. As such, all its negotaitions are about trying to hamstring the UK economy post Brexit.

There will come a point where hard Brexit becomes the only viable option for the UK. The odds on it have been steadily shortening over the part few months - largely because of actions from Brussels.

What worries me most of a knee jerk reaction from May, who must slowly be realising that she's been done up like a kipper. When that happens to risk adverse people like May, they tend to swing over to the other extreme and start throwing their toys out of the pram in a too little, too late scenario.

May had better smack her Chancellor round the head - who is visibly dragging his heels over a clean Brexit - and order him to release large sums of cash to prepare for a hard Brexit. The only viable negotiating strategy the UK has is to make it abundantly clear that the UK is prepared for a hard Brexit. The entire negotiating tactic from Brussels is based around the idea that May will wimp out of a hard Brexit and thus can be bullied into almost anything. Active and successful preparations for a hard Brexit might change that stance.

Wordsmith
 
Take your pick from the many varied versions of Brexit on offer.
well that's the point- who said even a "hard Brexit" would not mean a deal of some sort. There are two real issues at base.
(1) Who controls trade deals. The EU says they do, yet I see no evidence to support that contention and no one has proved to me that they do, because at the bottom line it has to be damaging to the EU for it not to be accepted. Turkey keeps doing it with military purchases from Russia. That's hole blown in that one.
(2) The overarching concept of the ECJ. I don't see that holds water either. If they did the entire legal systems of all 28 would have been scrapped in 2008-moreover there is a mechanism by which National supreme courts can disagree with the ECJ. Moreover art 50 is the mechanism to leave the EU. It remains to be seen if the ECJ has the means to take on the Supreme court in the US. Since sanctions on Iran are UN Based the EU would have to comply. There is nothing the EU can do to protect EU businesses from undertakings they themselves gave in the matter. End of. Moreover China has just dropped tariffs on MV's and the EU will almost certainly not prevent VAG Peugot, BMW etc from making inroads. Just sayin' like
 
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Deleted 145301

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Not likely and would weaken their negotiating stance too. Why would they want to do us a favour?
If they see the direction of travel, red lines disappearing, the slow creep to BrINO etc, I would say it's to their advantage since given a bit more time they might expect Britain basically in, but unable to veto anything, or we might shitcan the whole thing eventually.

Both more advantageous to the EU, in my view
 
Measures now starting to be put in place in expectation of a nondeal hard Brexit.
Far too little, far too late. If preparations had started full throttle the day after the referendum we still wouldn't be ready in all respects by now. No deal is not a credible option for a political party that does not want to spend at least a generation in the wilderness. It needn't have been that way of course, but that's what we got.

It's almost as if disentangling a modern nation state from an economic union it has been in for decades needs time and attention to detail rather than ignorant rhetoric. Who would have thought it?
 
Guess what - Brussels going back on its word.

Brussels breaking Brexit bill promises by freezing UK out of Galileo satellite programme


As said repeatedly before, Brussels is quietly cr*pping itself about the UK making a success of Brexit and showing the other member states of the EU that you can flourish over the Brussels straitjacket. As such, all its negotaitions are about trying to hamstring the UK economy post Brexit.

There will come a point where hard Brexit becomes the only viable option for the UK. The odds on it have been steadily shortening over the part few months - largely because of actions from Brussels.

What worries me most of a knee jerk reaction from May, who must slowly be realising that she's been done up like a kipper. When that happens to risk adverse people like May, they tend to swing over to the other extreme and start throwing their toys out of the pram in a too little, too late scenario.

May had better smack her Chancellor round the head - who is visibly dragging his heels over a clean Brexit - and order him to release large sums of cash to prepare for a hard Brexit. The only viable negotiating strategy the UK has is to make it abundantly clear that the UK is prepared for a hard Brexit. The entire negotiating tactic from Brussels is based around the idea that May will wimp out of a hard Brexit and thus can be bullied into almost anything. Active and successful preparations for a hard Brexit might change that stance.

Wordsmith

We're not in Galileo any more as we're leaving the EU and haven't asked for access to that particular EU programme. Using that as an example of EU intransigence just outlines the lack of reality in many quarters.

And all the evidence to date to Parliament has been that hard Brexit would be disastrous. All of it. I don't see any party being stupid enough to carry the can for that.

Now, the UK could have prepared for a hard Brexit, there's nothing particularly onerous about any of it - only it didn't. Why? Ask the Tories, I have no idea. The only thing I do know is that it hasn't.

So yeah, that conversation was relevant before we triggered A50. Right now, with the clock ticking and nowhere near enough time left it's pointless.
 

Brotherton Lad

LE
Kit Reviewer
Still too many posters stuck in June 2016.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
We're not in Galileo any more as we're leaving the EU and haven't asked for access to that particular EU programme. Using that as an example of EU intransigence just outlines the lack of reality in many quarters.
If we haven't asked for access to that program, why are assorted ministers incensed by the lack of access?

You only get angry if you're being denied access to something you've been promised access to.

Wordsmith
 
If they see the direction of travel, red lines disappearing, the slow creep to BrINO etc, I would say it's to their advantage since given a bit more time they might expect Britain basically in, but unable to veto anything, or we might shitcan the whole thing eventually.

Both more advantageous to the EU, in my view
Try getting that through Parliament. I still don't see any sign of flexibility on the part of the EU. Remember, they didn't do Cameron a favour so why should they do May one?
 
You are, it's true; you still haven't got over the shock of the result, hence your constant refrains that something will turn up to halt Brexit.
It worked for Mr Micawber! :)
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
In fact, preparations have been quietly going on for some time.
What worries me is the urgency with which some of this work is being done. You get the impression that the attitude in some government departments is "we'll get an agreement - this is only a backstop".

In fact, although it might ultimately be money wasted, the government should have cracked on with the necessary preparations even before Brexit was triggered. Definite preparations for a hard Brexit would have put pressure on Brussels, increasing the possibility that we would be able to negotiate a deal.

And if it comes to a hard Brexit, the cost of properly preparing for it would be paid back in months as a result of minimising disruption to trade.

Wordsmith
 
D

Deleted 145301

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So no lies from Remain about war, famine, pestilence and economic ruin?
I did acknowledge that the downside of leaving was trumped over the benefits of remaining.

Poorly coordinated and executed remain campaign.

Yet the leave campaign appears to have been illegal, so there we go
 
D

Deleted 145301

Guest
Guess what - Brussels going back on its word.

Brussels breaking Brexit bill promises by freezing UK out of Galileo satellite programme


As said repeatedly before, Brussels is quietly cr*pping itself about the UK making a success of Brexit and showing the other member states of the EU that you can flourish over the Brussels straitjacket. As such, all its negotaitions are about trying to hamstring the UK economy post Brexit.

There will come a point where hard Brexit becomes the only viable option for the UK. The odds on it have been steadily shortening over the part few months - largely because of actions from Brussels.

What worries me most of a knee jerk reaction from May, who must slowly be realising that she's been done up like a kipper. When that happens to risk adverse people like May, they tend to swing over to the other extreme and start throwing their toys out of the pram in a too little, too late scenario.

May had better smack her Chancellor round the head - who is visibly dragging his heels over a clean Brexit - and order him to release large sums of cash to prepare for a hard Brexit. The only viable negotiating strategy the UK has is to make it abundantly clear that the UK is prepared for a hard Brexit. The entire negotiating tactic from Brussels is based around the idea that May will wimp out of a hard Brexit and thus can be bullied into almost anything. Active and successful preparations for a hard Brexit might change that stance.

Wordsmith
We are leaving the EU.

Why should we expect to retain the right to work on an EU project?

It really is that simple
 
If we haven't asked for access to that program, why are assorted ministers incensed by the lack of access?

You only get angry if you're being denied access to something you've been promised access to.

Wordsmith
They are trying to distract you from the fact that the government has failed to prepare for Brexit and that it will be bad for the UK. They'd much rather you blame the EU than themselves.

I mean, it's is a fact that Galileo is an EU programme limited to EU members. You'd have to be gullible indeed to see a conspiracy in the UK now being excluded. It's also a fact that the UK has done exactly nothing to rejoin, so again the EU planning for a future without the UK is not unexpected. It's another one of the inconvenient details that the clowns in charge handwaved away as Project Fear.
 
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