Brexit Phase Two - Trade

BoJo issuing coded warnings again.

Boris Johnson tells Eurosceptics to give Theresa May 'time and space' as he issues customs union warning


I think we're increasingly heading towards a situation where PMTM agrees a deal with Brussels which then turns out to be unacceptable to a a large swathe of the Tory back benches, some cabinet ministers and the DUP. May will then have the choice of attempting to get the deal through with the aid of the opposition parties and - almost certainly - immediately triggering a leadership challenge, or seeing her 'deal' collapse in a heap, leaving hard Brexit the only option. The Tory party is now paying in full measure for electing as leader a woman whose reputation as a 'safe pair of hands' has been built by running away from trouble and avoiding doing anything controversial.

I think May is going to look a right chimp in the eyes of the electorate and the Tory party, while Barnier/Juncker/the European Commission are going to be on the end of wrath from the EU member states who are going to see significant disruption to trade.

To paraphrase: "History is litters with failed Brexit agreements which no-one thought would ever happen".
Wordsmith
The Tory party are looking right chimps in the eyes of the electorate under around age 40, never mind TMPM. Being well over 40, Mogg or Johnson would both ensure my vote went elsewhere rather than being spoiled as is my current preference.

New polling conducted by YouGov for the Centre for Policy Studies has revealed that nearly half of 18- to 24-year-olds say there is zero chance of them ever voting Tory. Among under-40s as a whole, those who say they are certain to vote Conservative is now less than one in 10.

My fellow Tories, I’m afraid the crash generation just doesn’t trust us | Ruth Davidson

The Tory party need to get its shit together.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
This is very true:

TM's Initial Negotiation Position: We will leave the CU

TM's Final Negotiating Position: We won't leave the CU

^_^
Never a truer word spoken in jest. Because the EU negotiating team have realised May is weak and will back down in the face of sustained pressure, they have exploited that.

However, they are making the same mistake as with CMD - not fully understanding British politics. Just as not giving CMD meaningful concessions might have swung the balance of the referendum to 'Out', backing May into a corner will probably result in a solution not acceptable to a large chunk of the Tory party and to the DUP. Which will lead to a hard Brexit.

Wordsmith
 
It's not a question of 'do-able', it's whether May can get parliamentary approval for the agreement. And based on the opposition being publicly expressed by BoJo, David Davies, JRM and the 60 MP's he speaks for and the DUP, I doubt May will be able to get what she looks like agreeing with the EU through parliament without opposition support. Which would immediately destroy her premiership and split the Tory party.

May can't even get the agreement of her own cabinet for the way forward. And there is a significant minority of Tory MP's who regard hard Brexit as a better option than the agreement May is negotiating.

May is steadily painting herself into a corner.

Wordsmith
...and the alternative is? That's only the first hurdle. One is beginning to wonder in who's interest Parliament is there. I've said this before If parliament don't want the job they've only to say so. It's beginning to look like they don't, so as a democratic forum they will soon be irrelevant once the electorate realise they( parliament) can do nothing without asking Brussels first. The other devolved assemblies will be no more than glorified municipal councils. Do they really want that? Because that would be a template for the other 27. I really don't think the conservatives would be so stupid as to split their own party at a time when the opposition is so fractured. No they'll bide their time, get their vote and await the outcome of the EP on the matter- then they'll strike. They'll use the EU refusal as the excuse for a no confidence vote. There's something else to consider here as well, the EP is on a collision course with the Commission. If the commissions accepts and recommends to the CM then the EP might just reject. Moreover Juncker is out next year. Timing....timing
 
As does the UK for Japan. 6 months visa free travel for the Japanese. 3 months for UK citizens to Japan.
This is more about relaxing the rules for long term workers coming to UK to work for Japanese countries.
In itself, not a bad thing. I’m a bit confused as to why @Baglock thinks it’s a negative.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
...and the alternative is? That's only the first hurdle. One is beginning to wonder in who's interest Parliament is there. I've said this before If parliament don't want the job they've only to say so.
Part of the problem is that the parties at Westminster are acting in their own narrow personal interests rather than the national interest. In an ideal world, they all would have agreed "no deal is better than a bad deal", reached a broad consensus on the way forward and presented a united front to win the best deal from the EU.

Instead we have a weak prime minister, a Tory party split down the middle between a remain faction wanting to leave the EU 'in name only' and a leave faction wanting a clean break. We also have the other parties circling like vultures around a weakened PM, hoping to ripe her entrails out when she's fatally weakened.

Like it or loath it, a majority of the electorate voted to leave the EU. Politicians should accept that and unite to get the best deal for the UK rather than scheming for what narrow political advantage they can get out of it.

Wordsmith
 
Baggy Bertie Smalls old love. My last post was not a rant, merely an observation on your highly esteemed and valued postings on here, those that reflect on personal credibility and peerless thought processes.
This, old love IS a rant...

Moderators

Could we please punt this incessant crap from Wordsmith that has got nothing to do with trade into the thread that I created for Doomsmith to crayon over?

https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/is-the-eu-is-about-to-collapse.272467/

@Guns @Sixty @Purple_Flash @Good CO
 
Part of the problem is that the parties at Westminster are acting in their own narrow personal interests rather than the national interest. In an ideal world, they all would have agreed "no deal is better than a bad deal", reached a broad consensus on the way forward and presented a united front to win the best deal from the EU.

Instead we have a weak prime minister, a Tory party split down the middle between a remain faction wanting to leave the EU 'in name only' and a leave faction wanting a clean break. We also have the other parties circling like vultures around a weakened PM, hoping to ripe her entrails out when she's fatally weakened.

Like it or loath it, a majority of the electorate voted to leave the EU. Politicians should accept that and unite to get the best deal for the UK rather than scheming for what narrow political advantage they can get out of it.

Wordsmith
Acting in the national interest with the false, 'no deal is better than a bad deal' mantra?

Every single testimony to parliament indicates such an outcome would be catastrophic.

People like you are against the national interest and are worthy of contempt

You are utterly out of touch with reality.

Better to go back to amusing us all with your EU collapse frap fest.

Better than blaming everyone else for your stupidity. ****!
 
Part of the problem is that the parties at Westminster are acting in their own narrow personal interests rather than the national interest. In an ideal world, they all would have agreed "no deal is better than a bad deal", reached a broad consensus on the way forward and presented a united front to win the best deal from the EU.

Instead we have a weak prime minister, a Tory party split down the middle between a remain faction wanting to leave the EU 'in name only' and a leave faction wanting a clean break. We also have the other parties circling like vultures around a weakened PM, hoping to ripe her entrails out when she's fatally weakened.

Like it or loath it, a majority of the electorate voted to leave the EU. Politicians should accept that and unite to get the best deal for the UK rather than scheming for what narrow political advantage they can get out of it.

Wordsmith
Accuses parties of not acting the interest of the nation and acting in narrow personal interests, suggest that they should act in his narrow personal interest instead. You couldn't make this up.
 
It's not a question of 'do-able', it's whether May can get parliamentary approval for the agreement. And based on the opposition being publicly expressed by BoJo, David Davies, JRM and the 60 MP's he speaks for and the DUP, I doubt May will be able to get what she looks like agreeing with the EU through parliament without opposition support. Which would immediately destroy her premiership and split the Tory party.

May can't even get the agreement of her own cabinet for the way forward. And there is a significant minority of Tory MP's who regard hard Brexit as a better option than the agreement May is negotiating.

May is steadily painting herself into a corner.

Wordsmith
Can't beat a bit of good old 'Parliamentary Sovereignty' - what ever that is?!! :)
 
I sense your disagreement over something. Yet you can’t seem to be able to tell me exactly what it is.

You think this current crop of alphabet soup Republicans have the potential and capacity to pose a serious threat?


There’s an old saying. ‘ the guerilla must move amongst the people as a fish swims in the sea’.
Here’s the thing, there’s no sea.
Perhaps its Protectively Marked from the HMG end and commercially sensitive from the point of view of the supplier? Just a (not so) idle thought. ;)
 
Because millions of frothering people voted leave to curb immigration.

Swapping one nationality for another will piss off the kippers no end
I didn’t vote due to immigration. I voted to leave the EU. It’s the remain camp that decided that everybody that disagrees with them was racist.

Japanese people culturally don’t move around too much. I doubt if we increased the visa waver for Japanese people we’d see a somaliesque invasion of inner cities.
 
The Tory party are looking right chimps in the eyes of the electorate under around age 40, never mind TMPM. Being well over 40, Mogg or Johnson would both ensure my vote went elsewhere rather than being spoiled as is my current preference.

New polling conducted by YouGov for the Centre for Policy Studies has revealed that nearly half of 18- to 24-year-olds say there is zero chance of them ever voting Tory. Among under-40s as a whole, those who say they are certain to vote Conservative is now less than one in 10.

My fellow Tories, I’m afraid the crash generation just doesn’t trust us | Ruth Davidson

The Tory party need to get its shit together.
@Graculus,
If you look at the actual data in the survey report
http://www.cps.org.uk/files/reports/original/180511132931-YouGovCPSPollingAllAges.pdf

you will see that:
41% would definitely Not vote Conservative
39% would definitely Not vote Labour
46% would definitely Not vote Lib Dem

However, the same figures show:
19% would definitely vote Conservative
17% would definitely vote Labour
3% would definitely vote Lib Dem


I would suggest that the Labour party and the Lib dems in particular need to get their shit together as well.
 
I didn’t vote due to immigration. I voted to leave the EU. It’s the remain camp that decided that everybody that disagrees with them was racist.

Japanese people culturally don’t move around too much. I doubt if we increased the visa waver for Japanese people we’d see a somaliesque invasion of inner cities.
I would be perfectly happy with more Japanese folk Andy.

Are you trying to pretend that immigration wasn't the key issue of the referendum?

I'm simply pointing out that brexit voters aren't getting what they thought they would.
 
@Graculus,
If you look at the actual data in the survey report
http://www.cps.org.uk/files/reports/original/180511132931-YouGovCPSPollingAllAges.pdf

you will see that:
41% would definitely Not vote Conservative
39% would definitely Not vote Labour
46% would definitely Not vote Lib Dem

However, the same figures show:
19% would definitely vote Conservative
17% would definitely vote Labour
3% would definitely vote Lib Dem


I would suggest that the Labour party and the Lib dems in particular need to get their shit together as well.
Indeed, they're all not doing very well are they? I'd probably vote Lib Dem in the event of JRM or Johnson ending up as leader.
 
It’s the remain camp that decided that everybody that disagrees with them was racist.

.
That's not what he said though is it? Immigration and the fear of further immigration were significant factor in the campaign.
 
To be fair, the complete picture does look different from the one painted in your post.
We all knew that Labour and Lib Dems are bollixed before I posted didn't we? I've said a few times on these boards that I couldn't vote for a Labour party with Corbyn as leader but that the Tories are they only thing which could make him electable. Fortunately he opens his gob whenever they start getting somewhere in the polls.
 
That's not what he said though is it? Immigration and the fear of further immigration were significant factor in the campaign.
If you say so.
You have, of course, asked the whole electorate.
 

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