Brexit Phase Two - Trade

When you negotiate you often go into the meetings with two things in mind: your initial negotiating position and what you're finally prepared to accept. Too many people are assuming the initial negotiating positions are also the final negotiating positions and running around screaming the sky is going to fall in.

Wordsmith
The UK is in a position of desperation. A uniquely weak position that the sharks will exploit

Without any existing trade deals once we leave the Indians can dictate what they want, with the disgraced Liam Fox desperate for a superficial win for the DIT
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer

Absolutely. That’s the height of your ambition, to take the attention off Brexit. ( we’ve thrown the royal under the bus)

Plan B. You think is to deploy the army to deal with a group of people, either very young or very old. With little or no popular support you could probably fit the active members into a coach. And drive them to a very under utilised jail. (The only hmp in the country which still has stacks of room and can be utilised at little notice).

They can be quickly taken of the streets ( there’ll be an initial burst of public displays of support. That’s a historical thing)
That done. Dealt with with no need for MACP and covert support from the shinners, they get a thorn in their flesh out of the way.

Why would anyone want to put our kids in harms way when it’s unnecessary.

Tonk indeed.
 
OK...the world economy is on a roll apparently but we have missed out on loads because of a daft referendum.
Try as we may, there is nothing good that the prospects of brexit have done for us....

Even before we brexit the mess is hurting. Can we now ignore the fantasy and get in touch with reality. Brexit is an act of self harm and should be stopped.
 
Absolutely. That’s the height of your ambition, to take the attention off Brexit. ( we’ve thrown the royal under the bus)

Plan B. You think is to deploy the army to deal with a group of people, either very young or very old. With little or no popular support you could probably fit the active members into a coach. And drive them to a very under utilised jail. (The only hmp in the country which still has stacks of room and can be utilised at little notice).

They can be quickly taken of the streets ( there’ll be an initial burst of public displays of support. That’s a historical thing)
That done. Dealt with with no need for MACP and covert support from the shinners, they get a thorn in their flesh out of the way.

Why would anyone want to put our kids in harms way when it’s unnecessary.

Tonk indeed.
Christ Almighty! Step away from the keyboard. You really are talking deluded rubbish!
 
temporary visas for workers to come, train, earn (ie wotk) and return. Doesn't seem too bad.
We covered Tier 2 visas and the abuse of them in the referendum thread. They're used a lot in IT, the major outsourcers and the SNP are well known for it.
 
BoJo issuing coded warnings again.

Boris Johnson tells Eurosceptics to give Theresa May 'time and space' as he issues customs union warning
Boris Johnson has told Eurosceptic Tory MPs to give the Prime Minister "time and space" to deliver Brexit but warned she must not betray the country by keeping Britain in the customs union.

Speaking in Peru, the Foreign Secretary said that Britain must be free to do "unhindered" trade deals as soon as the UK leaves the European Union in March 2019. He said that an Irish backstop, which would tie Britain to the customs union beyond 2021 if no solution to the Irish border issue can be found, must only be used as a last resort.
I think we're increasingly heading towards a situation where PMTM agrees a deal with Brussels which then turns out to be unacceptable to a a large swathe of the Tory back benches, some cabinet ministers and the DUP. May will then have the choice of attempting to get the deal through with the aid of the opposition parties and - almost certainly - immediately triggering a leadership challenge, or seeing her 'deal' collapse in a heap, leaving hard Brexit the only option. The Tory party is now paying in full measure for electing as leader a woman whose reputation as a 'safe pair of hands' has been built by running away from trouble and avoiding doing anything controversial.

I think May is going to look a right chimp in the eyes of the electorate and the Tory party, while Barnier/Juncker/the European Commission are going to be on the end of wrath from the EU member states who are going to see significant disruption to trade.

To paraphrase: "History is litters with failed Brexit agreements which no-one thought would ever happen".

Wordsmith
 
BoJo issuing coded warnings again.

Boris Johnson tells Eurosceptics to give Theresa May 'time and space' as he issues customs union warning


I think we're increasingly heading towards a situation where PMTM agrees a deal with Brussels which then turns out to be unacceptable to a a large swathe of the Tory back benches, some cabinet ministers and the DUP. May will then have the choice of attempting to get the deal through with the aid of the opposition parties and - almost certainly - immediately triggering a leadership challenge, or seeing her 'deal' collapse in a heap, leaving hard Brexit the only option. The Tory party is now paying in full measure for electing as leader a woman whose reputation as a 'safe pair of hands' has been built by running away from trouble and avoiding doing anything controversial.

I think May is going to look a right chimp in the eyes of the electorate and the Tory party, while Barnier/Juncker/the European Commission are going to be on the end of wrath from the EU member states who are going to see significant disruption to trade.

To paraphrase: "History is litters with failed Brexit agreements which no-one thought would ever happen".

Wordsmith
I actually think you'll be surprised and when you look at the concepts that have been put forward, they are completely doable. A critical test will come for the ECJ will come when it tries to take on the US re sanctions for Iran. Trump has already pulled off movement in the Korea Issue, it seems he now happily chatting to China and they may do a deal, so not bad for a so called No hoper dead duck after the Obama years. I don't see the contest ending happily for the ECJ. To an extent I think the Conservatives are doing a little distraction technique. Just heard on R2 that the RAF will be given the responsibility for heading UK's space race and geo orbital technology given the dependence on the it by the Military etc.So it'll mean a bit of interservice crowing. That means a decision has been reached
 
I actually think you'll be surprised and when you look at the concepts that have been put forward, they are completely doable.
It's not a question of 'do-able', it's whether May can get parliamentary approval for the agreement. And based on the opposition being publicly expressed by BoJo, David Davies, JRM and the 60 MP's he speaks for and the DUP, I doubt May will be able to get what she looks like agreeing with the EU through parliament without opposition support. Which would immediately destroy her premiership and split the Tory party.

May can't even get the agreement of her own cabinet for the way forward. And there is a significant minority of Tory MP's who regard hard Brexit as a better option than the agreement May is negotiating.

May is steadily painting herself into a corner.

Wordsmith
 
When you negotiate you often go into the meetings with two things in mind: your initial negotiating position and what you're finally prepared to accept. Too many people are assuming the initial negotiating positions are also the final negotiating positions and running around screaming the sky is going to fall in.

Wordsmith
I see you got a sabc for that, if only I had it on my negotiating team when tendering for work. It seems to know everything. ( irony mode reinabled)
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
It's not a question of 'do-able', it's whether May can get parliamentary approval for the agreement. And based on the opposition being publicly expressed by BoJo, David Davies, JRM and the 60 MP's he speaks for and the DUP, I doubt May will be able to get what she looks like agreeing with the EU through parliament without opposition support. Which would immediately destroy her premiership and split the Tory party.

May can't even get the agreement of her own cabinet for the way forward. And there is a significant minority of Tory MP's who regard hard Brexit as a better option than the agreement May is negotiating.

May is steadily painting herself into a corner.

Wordsmith
As I have said many times before, there are no real issues to agreements being reached with the UK/EU. All the issues floating about are purely political. If someone could just the various factions together and bang their heads together, on both sides, then agreement could be reached within days.

The arrangement is we leave the EU, that is all the vote was about. The toing and froing is purely down to politicians sticking their oar in to stir things up, just because they can.
 
BoJo issuing coded warnings again.

Boris Johnson tells Eurosceptics to give Theresa May 'time and space' as he issues customs union warning


I think we're increasingly heading towards a situation where PMTM agrees a deal with Brussels which then turns out to be unacceptable to a a large swathe of the Tory back benches, some cabinet ministers and the DUP. May will then have the choice of attempting to get the deal through with the aid of the opposition parties and - almost certainly - immediately triggering a leadership challenge, or seeing her 'deal' collapse in a heap, leaving hard Brexit the only option. The Tory party is now paying in full measure for electing as leader a woman whose reputation as a 'safe pair of hands' has been built by running away from trouble and avoiding doing anything controversial.

I think May is going to look a right chimp in the eyes of the electorate and the Tory party, while Barnier/Juncker/the European Commission are going to be on the end of wrath from the EU member states who are going to see significant disruption to trade.

To paraphrase: "History is litters with failed Brexit agreements which no-one thought would ever happen".

Wordsmith

What I believe has saved May so far and will continue to so so is that no-one wants to take over from her and be seen as responsible for the catastrophe that would ensue. All the evidence delivered to Parliament so far as that no deal would be a disaster and I do not believe that this has gone unnoticed. I know the usual suspects are continuing to churn the rhetoric out but that's more a distraction from the Tory failure to prepare for Brexit than anything else. She will stay in place and take the fall.

The DUP will no doubt be taking notice of the very definite swing within NI to stay in the EU - even if it means leaving the UK - and one wonders whether they will risk electoral defeat to stick to their currrent position.

Finally, within the EU, things are very different from the illusions you put forward. The current EU position is, by and large, supported by EU member states as they are the ones that defined it. They see Brexit as a problem caused by the UK, they have a consistent line on the terms they will accept a deal on, and if the UK does not sign up to those terms then that will be seen as something caused by the UK. That's if they think about it at all, which isn't very often these days.
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
Christ Almighty! Step away from the keyboard. You really are talking deluded rubbish!

I sense your disagreement over something. Yet you can’t seem to be able to tell me exactly what it is.

You think this current crop of alphabet soup Republicans have the potential and capacity to pose a serious threat?


There’s an old saying. ‘ the guerilla must move amongst the people as a fish swims in the sea’.
Here’s the thing, there’s no sea.
 
I see you got a sabc for that, if only I had it on my negotiating team when tendering for work. It seems to know everything. ( irony mode reinabled)
Let me guess - @Baglock As I've got him on ignore and don't have to read the wibble he posts - some no doubt in response to my posts - pounding the mong buttons is the only response I can see.

I have no problem with remain supporters who can articulate a case. - hence I spent some time putting together a considered response to Ugly's post recently. But life is too short to respond to posters who have a Pavlovian "EU good/UK bad" response to Brexit. And particularly posters who confuse personal insults with reasoned argument.

Wordsmith
 
The recent doubling of the NHS prepayment fee has put off some of the chancers.
I'd not have brought it up unless as a response to some guff, it's not specifically Brexit thing but it's always going to be on any negotiations.
 
When you negotiate you often go into the meetings with two things in mind: your initial negotiating position and what you're finally prepared to accept. Too many people are assuming the initial negotiating positions are also the final negotiating positions and running around screaming the sky is going to fall in.

Wordsmith
This is very true:

TM's Initial Negotiation Position: We will leave the CU

TM's Final Negotiating Position: We won't leave the CU

^_^
 
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