Brexit Phase Two - Trade

What makes you say that? History has shown that the opposite of what you’ve said to be the case.

Ireland did it in 1922. They survived and thrived.
India did it in 1947. They survived and thrived.

There’s also a whole host more.

You seem to be under the impression that bigger is better, when empirically you’ll see that smaller economies outperform bigger economies in economic growth measures.
Ireland has been thriving quite nicely for the past 20 years. Any idea why?

India is hardly small. It's population is and was gargantuan
 
Ireland has been thriving quite nicely for the past 20 years. Any idea why?

India is hardly small. It's population is and was gargantuan
Because it ditched de la Vera’s economic model and shifted away from an agricultural based economy.

Look at any country. ANY country in the world and find me one that’s worse off than it was 20 years ago.

Certain country’s have seen big growth. They tend to be the ones that were far behind to begin with.

https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/countries-highest-gdp-growth-2017

Take a look at the fastest growing economies. Non are in the EU.

Let’s take a look at economic growth rates within the EU.

List of European Union member states by GDP growth - Wikipedia

Once again we see the fastest growing economy’s are the ones that are small and came from nowt.

Interestingly, the two worst performing Eu nations are both in the eurozone.

The EU is a mature market. Without certain inputs it will never get above low single digit growth rates.

Those inputs are traditionally.
1) aquire new territory. (Already been done by the EU)
2) grow your population. ( how many refugees have been let in? Sort of negates low birth rates)
3) become more competitive (by either improving your competitive advantage or your comparative advantage.)

You’ll see the EU is desperate to keep the UK in the EU hence all the fear mongering. Russia is desperate to keep its influence in certain satellite states. There were many who wanted to keep empire. They needed to do all of that as big organisations can’t afford to loose foot print.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
So Italy is either shafted short, mid and long term by staying in the € and not being able to use the usual levers for getting out of the economic poo, or gets a bailout paid for by the Germans.

Third option is the rules are changed to let Italy drop out of the € but that would involve a seismic shift in the the EU by changing things they’ve already agreed to without considering unforeseen changes in circumstances, something, culturally, many European nation states have difficulty with doing.
Assuming it were legally possible for Italy to drop out of the euro, the implications would be horrendous.

The lira would fall through the floor as investors priced in a potential Italian default on its debt. Borrowing costs for weaker eurozone members would also spike sharply upward for the same reason, pushing one or more of those states into financial meltdown.

The mere threat of the Italians going their own way is going to cause a mass outbreak of brown stained underpants in Brussels. Italy has a strong hand to play - and if they play it adeptly, they can blackmail the EU into substantial concessions.

Longer term, I suspect that a five Star/Northern League government will make Gordon Browns irresponsible spending boom look like small change, but the impact of that is still several years down the road - and probably timed to coincide with the next recession.

Wordsmith
 
Ireland has been thriving quite nicely for the past 20 years. Any idea why?

India is hardly small. It's population is and was gargantuan

Might be something to do with Irelands miniscule (effective) Corporation tax rates
EU to find ways to make Google, Facebook and Amazon pay more tax
Apple tax and Facebook tax rebate explained | WIRED UK

and the 14 US Multinationals that are in Ireland's top 20 companies Top 1000 Irish Companies

Probably why the EU is trying to rewrite the Tax rules for technology companies.
 
Norway is in the EEA, they can have 3rd country trade deals, the pay the EU for access, they have same regulations and no seat at the table.




who the UK and Ireland?

both countries signed up to live by a certain code in order to have access to single market etc etc - 1 of them wants to leave that’s fair enough - but if you want access you aren’t dealing with 1 country your dealing with 27 !

NI is a different situation due to a bilateral Governmental agreement which the majority of people on the island of Ireland voted in favour of.


Can’t speak for the UK but the Irish Commissioner is appointed by the Irish Government
There is no Irish commissioner .

Ireland has nominated somebody to fill the agricultural post. That post impacts on the UK, but I’ve had no say in it.

At the moment I vote for a councillor, an MSP and an MP. I can vote them out.

I can’t vote out somebody in the House of Lords or the EU commission.

I’m generally not too happy with people with big influence being appointed.
 
There is no Irish commissioner .

Ireland has nominated somebody to fill the agricultural post. That post impacts on the UK, but I’ve had no say in it.

At the moment I vote for a councillor, an MSP and an MP. I can vote them out.

I can’t vote out somebody in the House of Lords or the EU commission.

I’m generally not too happy with people with big influence being appointed.
Yes the same way as every member state

I absolutely agree the Commission has way too much power by the way
 
There is no Irish commissioner .

Ireland has nominated somebody to fill the agricultural post. That post impacts on the UK, but I’ve had no say in it.

At the moment I vote for a councillor, an MSP and an MP. I can vote them out.

I can’t vote out somebody in the House of Lords or the EU commission.

I’m generally not too happy with people with big influence being appointed.
You mean apart from PHil Hogan (Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development) who has been there since 2014?

And you can't vote for a member of the cabinet, either. Like the EU commission they are nominated or appointed by the PM.
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
We’re leaving the Customs Union and replacing it with something snazzy like a customs partnership, it’s got all small letters in it so nobody gets excited.
Varadker seems to approve of that one as the preferred way forward.
 
And your counter arguments that show the flaws in my reasoning?

Will - for example - the euro sail through the next recession unscathed, or will the Greek, Italian and French economies (among others) implode and give us the mother of all financial crisis's?

Wordsmith
When do you predict the crisis to emerge?
 
Firstly, the two parties mentioned haven't even agreed on forming a coalition due to some differences.
Secondly, if you read that article, it says “an old version that has been considerably modified”. In particular, it had been decided “not to call into question the single currency,” they said.

Once they can agree on a few points (some like cutting taxes and not upping the pension age are poles apart) then they could form a coalition. But it's Italy, they have form for this.

The wishful thinking by some may just be that.
The parties are falling out already.
 
Well mentioned. It seems that a significant amount of the argument/blame by the remain side is due to said conflation.

Enough of obnubilation, say I.
If those who voted remain weren't being blamed for the failures of government by people in government I'd be more impressed TBH
 
You mean apart from PHil Hogan (Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development) who has been there since 2014?

And you can't vote for a member of the cabinet, either. Like the EU commission they are nominated or appointed by the PM.
Actually we do vote for members of the cabinet who are MPs before being offered government posts. What I think you meant to say was that we cannot vote which portfolio they hold. However, a member of cabinet can be recalled or reaffirm dcby further election by their constituents, an EU Commissioner cannot because they have neither constituents nor constituency. They are appointed top level bureaucrats with lots of authority but no responsibility to the people that have supposedly made them their tribunes.
 
You mean apart from PHil Hogan (Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development) who has been there since 2014?

And you can't vote for a member of the cabinet, either. Like the EU commission they are nominated or appointed by the PM.
He is not an Irish Commissioner, he is a Commissioner who is Irish. The remit of a Commissioner is to prosecute EU policy within their portfolio, not to argue for or advocate on behalf of their sending nation.
 
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