Brexit Phase Two - Trade

Electing a Remainer as party leader - stupid, stupid Tories.
May was pretty well imposed as the choice of various vested interests, not least the City. Now it could well be that she was deliberately set up to fail (at Brexit) but instead she failed at a GE called to give her a sufficient majority to call the whole thing off. She screwed that up (pretty well like everything else that she attempts to do) and now the Tories are stuck with her for a little while longer. The Customs partnership debacle is her last throw of the dice and she has obviously made some promises to some vested interests that she now cannot keep.
 
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May was pretty well imposed as the choice of various vested interests, not least the City. Now it could well be that she was deliberately set up to fail (at Brexit) but instead she failed at a GE called to give her a sufficient majority to call the whole thing off. She screwed that up (pretty well like everything else that she attempts to do) and now the Tories are stuck with her for a little while longer. The Customs partnership debacle is her last throw of the dice and she has obviously made some promises to some vested interests that she now cannot keep.
I agree with much of that. However, I think think it is a case of cock up rather than conspiracy.
May's is risk averse to a ridiculous degree. Re. the N.I. border, her approach has turned us into the lesser of the two states involved, despite our much stronger position (RoI trade being heavily dependent upon UK routes).
May hasn't stood up to the EU on any issue. She has no red lines and will compromise over everything. That said, if the Brexiteer ministers sign up to remaining in the Customs Union, they will in practice (if not in rhetorical terms) be as guilty as May.
If we do stay in the Customs Union, we will end up in the worst position possible: we will have upset the EU by leaving, but then wrecked our future negotiating position by appearing too weak to actually leave.
I hope the Brexiteer ministers understand now that, should we compromise on the Customs Union, it will not be possible for them to sell themselves as Brexiteers in the future.
 
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Hence, I qualified March 2019 with well before. Apparently, the Chair of the 1922 Committee now has the requisite 48 letters demanding a leadership contest but will wait for JRM to pull the trigger. I think that like Neville Chamberlain, Theresa May thinks that the Labour Party will save her skin. She is wrong on this count, as was Chamberlain in May 1940.
JRM has always struck me as a very smart cookie indeed - and an espouser of 'traditional' Tory values. I think JRM will pull the trigger after the Brexitt deal is signed, secure in the knowledge that he'll be the kingmaker in the next leadership contest. He'll also be the heir apparent - the next Tory leader but one. And in order to be the next Tory leader he also requires a track record as a successful senior cabinet minister - something he currently lacks. Which he'd get in the government of PMTM's successor.

After the 2017 GE debacle - where PMTM turned a 17 seat majority and 20% opinion poll lead into a 2 seat minority government largely due to the fuster-cluck of a campaign she fought, I think there is a widespread desire to get a better leader into place before the next GE - the Tories have no intention of gifting the next election to Labour with another balled up campaign.

The final nail in the coffin will have been PMTM's performance in the Brexit negotiations. The European commission's negotiating stance was predictable from the start. The only practical UK countermove would have been to prepare for a hard Brexit and then say the to EU - "give us better terms to stop this happening". Instead PMTM has shown herself unwilling to take tough/controversial decisions and the European commission - scenting weakness - has steadily pressured PMTM into making concession after concession, often getting little in return.

I originally had hoped May was going to prove a better PM than senior minister. In the first 6 months of her tenure she did little, and it looked as if she were pursuing a policy of masterly inactivity in order to force the Commission to make the first move and reveal its hand. Instead, it turned out she was pursuing a policy of masterly inactivity because she was desperately trying to to avoid making any decisions.

The sole thing that has saved PMTM thus far is that no-one wants to remove her while Brexit negotiations are ongoing - the Tories can't afford a 6 month hiatus while they elect a new leader. But she'll only last weeks after the deal is eventually signed. JRM will then privately pull the trigger, the Chair of the 1922 Committee will then tell PMTM that and May (I suspect) will step aside for "family reasons" to avoid a leadership contest which would result in her being humiliated.

Whoever the Tories elect as their next leader won't be a "safe pair of hands". The Tories now know the folly of electing a leader whose reputation as said pair of hands came from not doing anything controversial, ducking tough decisions and running away from responsibility whenever trouble hoves into view.

Wordsmith
I admire & like JRM, a controversial figure and an accomplished and credible MP, however numerous occasions including the most recent Sky news interview with Kay he’s ruled himself out of any leadership challenge.

Unfortunately, If it means keeping JC and the Brady bunch out, the 1922 committee & JRM might have little choice.


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I'd forgotten that little snippet - I wonder what his clients think when he apologises for Britain starting World War Two? ^^
'when will this tool shut up and get on with why we're here?', 'it's only Brexit', 'why is he apologising for something I'd love my own country to do?', or 'he never apologised for the UK's rebate/non EUro joining/veto/generally being the gooseberry'. Probably just a wry smile and the words 'useful idiot'.
 
When the next recession rolls along. And as the old joke goes, economists predicted 13 of the last 4 recessions.

More seriously, it's generally accepted that a country will default on its debts when the debt to GDP ration exceeds 140%. Here are the current figures.

Eurostat - Tables, Graphs and Maps Interface (TGM) table

Greece: 178.6%
Italy: 131.8%
Portugal: 125.7%
Belgium 103.1%

Greece - in any other circumstances - would have gone bust in the last recession. But that might have brought down the eurozone, so it was bullied into savage austerity.

Italy is going over the edge for sure in the next recession and probably Portugal too. The Belgians may end up on life support.

Italy is too big to fail - a financial crisis there will finish off the eurozone in its present form. Which is why I suspect the ECB/European commission will cave in to a lot of the incoming government's demands. Anything to improve Italy's economic position before the recession does hit.

Wordsmith
What is the national debt of Japan at the moment?
 
Meerkatz: "Did we start wars with the Europeans in the last two hundred years?"

Your response, post #22,166 (already quoted):
"The UK declared war on Germany in both 1914 and 1939. You can argue who started it until the cows come home."

Culpability for World War One is distinctly murky, by contrast, responsibility for World War Two is not unless you're David Irving or Brotherton Lad.

Your grandad wasn't a Wehrmacht propagandist by any chance, there's a certainly similarity with regard to the treatment of facts?

A German Explanation for the Start of WW II

Hark, the sound of lowing cattle returning to their domicle.
However, was it not the victorious allies who created the conditions - Versailles - for the rise of Nazism and its acceptance by the German people; yes we declared war on in response to a German invasion of a Sovereign State, however, the path that led to that is invasion is an interesting one.
 
Then you'll have no problem justifying your claim will you.

To get you started, here's a little reminder of what you wrote,with the benefit of your degree and service in East Germany:



No bees, but yes to having a fanatical Remainer thrashing about and looking a bit of an idiot because they prefer to argue an unarguable case in the face of overwhelming evidence rather than use some emotional intelligence (fanatical Remainer I know, but surely, deep down, somewhere...), concede gracefully and move on.

Happily, anyone encountering this little exchange will be able to aim off regarding the validity of the rest of your contributions. Congratulations on your degree, though it's not a rare thing, but you seem to have forgotten most of it. I'm not sure what great historical powers are conferred by experience of East Germany but, whatever they are, you're in a queue behind Corbyn, Abbott and Bugsy; well done.

Far too many words.

You're still barking up the wrong tree.
 
The Commission is basically the cabinet of the EU
Populated by unelected and relatively unaccountable individuals.
 
Hence, I qualified March 2019 with well before. Apparently, the Chair of the 1922 Committee now has the requisite 48 letters demanding a leadership contest but will wait for JRM to pull the trigger. I think that like Neville Chamberlain, Theresa May thinks that the Labour Party will save her skin. She is wrong on this count, as was Chamberlain in May 1940.
Chamberlain was sacked for his handling of the war at that point, unless that's the point you are trying to make. Conservatives will recall that she won her own election, albeit with a smaller share of the vote whilst Labour had a somewhat different election. All Labour proved to me is that distraction technique can be a useful tool. The issue for me isn't Government it's Parliament in general and it's turning into a battle into how Government is done. I'm quite clear in my own mind now that the real issues are not the EU especially, it's the concept that who ever sits in the offices of state will have to earn their bread and butter in terms of mental acuity.

The first thing Churchill did was to silence the opposition by making a coalition

JRM would be a be a bit like Churchill in that he is the default option, but there will be no gratitude for him if that happens. Labour's strength is somewhat paradoxical, they will concentrate on the weaknesses of what the EU haven't provided and blame the Tories for it.
 

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