Brexit Phase Two - Trade

You won't. There is no legal way to leave the euro.

Which brings up the interesting legal conundrum: how can a euro member invoke Article 50 to leave the EU when only EU members can belong to the euro and there is no way to leave the euro.

Wordsmith
So Italy is either shafted short, mid and long term by staying in the € and not being able to use the usual levers for getting out of the economic poo, or gets a bailout paid for by the Germans.

Third option is the rules are changed to let Italy drop out of the € but that would involve a seismic shift in the the EU by changing things they’ve already agreed to without considering unforeseen changes in circumstances, something, culturally, many European nation states have difficulty with doing.
 
Quite. But it simply reinforces in my mind that the leave/remain choice and the subsequent implementation of that choice to leave are two discrete elements and should not be conflated. Personally, I am quite content to leave but frustrated about how we are going about it; still, I wasn't ask about implementation and am therefore just getting on with life! I'm not going to worry about anything I can't influence.

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Well mentioned. It seems that a significant amount of the argument/blame by the remain side is due to said conflation.

Enough of obnubilation, say I.
 
I suspect Five Star and the Northern League will cobble together a program that will allow Italian president to agree to them forming a government. Said government will then go on to do it's own thing. It's not as if politicians actually feel bound to stick to commitments they've made is it?

Wordsmith
They could get St Tony if Blair to come along and use his Edward Bernays style of behind the scenes influencing to try and change the Italian opinion.

Maybe the Italian media will be awash with machinations of project fear.
 
Problems will be dealt with in some fashion.

The idea that other countries are going to leave the EU to get fed piecemeal to the economic heavyweights in the acendency is laughable.

The cluster **** of brexit is a lesson to Europe
 
Problems will be dealt with in some fashion.

The idea that other countries are going to leave the EU to get fed piecemeal to the economic heavyweights in the acendency is laughable.

The cluster **** of brexit is a lesson to Europe

Agreed.

And the clisterfucks in Southern Europe, and stretching up into Italy, one of the key players and founders of the EU, is a lesson to every citizen.

Said it before, say it again, the UK will be lucky to get shot of the EU before the whole thing collapses in a pile of pissed off voters and msssive debts.
 
Problems will be dealt with in some fashion.

The idea that other countries are going to leave the EU to get fed piecemeal to the economic heavyweights in the acendency is laughable.

The cluster **** of brexit is a lesson to Europe
What makes you say that? History has shown that the opposite of what you’ve said to be the case.

Ireland did it in 1922. They survived and thrived.
India did it in 1947. They survived and thrived.

There’s also a whole host more.

You seem to be under the impression that bigger is better, when empirically you’ll see that smaller economies outperform bigger economies in economic growth measures.
 
Norway and Sweden manage it and it takes a whopping 6 minutes to process a wagon.

Reality Check: How open are EU borders for trade?
Norway is in the EEA, they can have 3rd country trade deals, the pay the EU for access, they have same regulations and no seat at the table.




Let’s not forget, this is Brussels felling two sovereign states what they can and can’t do.
who the UK and Ireland?

both countries signed up to live by a certain code in order to have access to single market etc etc - 1 of them wants to leave that’s fair enough - but if you want access you aren’t dealing with 1 country your dealing with 27 !

NI is a different situation due to a bilateral Governmental agreement which the majority of people on the island of Ireland voted in favour of.

Tell me again who voted those commissioners into their positions? Or is there an EU commissioner vote held in Ireland that we don’t get in the UK.
Can’t speak for the UK but the Irish Commissioner is appointed by the Irish Government
 
What makes you say that? History has shown that the opposite of what you’ve said to be the case.

Ireland did it in 1922. They survived and thrived.
India did it in 1947. They survived and thrived.

There’s also a whole host more.

You seem to be under the impression that bigger is better, when empirically you’ll see that smaller economies outperform bigger economies in economic growth measures.
Ireland has been thriving quite nicely for the past 20 years. Any idea why?

India is hardly small. It's population is and was gargantuan
 
Ireland has been thriving quite nicely for the past 20 years. Any idea why?

India is hardly small. It's population is and was gargantuan
Because it ditched de la Vera’s economic model and shifted away from an agricultural based economy.

Look at any country. ANY country in the world and find me one that’s worse off than it was 20 years ago.

Certain country’s have seen big growth. They tend to be the ones that were far behind to begin with.

https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/countries-highest-gdp-growth-2017

Take a look at the fastest growing economies. Non are in the EU.

Let’s take a look at economic growth rates within the EU.

List of European Union member states by GDP growth - Wikipedia

Once again we see the fastest growing economy’s are the ones that are small and came from nowt.

Interestingly, the two worst performing Eu nations are both in the eurozone.

The EU is a mature market. Without certain inputs it will never get above low single digit growth rates.

Those inputs are traditionally.
1) aquire new territory. (Already been done by the EU)
2) grow your population. ( how many refugees have been let in? Sort of negates low birth rates)
3) become more competitive (by either improving your competitive advantage or your comparative advantage.)

You’ll see the EU is desperate to keep the UK in the EU hence all the fear mongering. Russia is desperate to keep its influence in certain satellite states. There were many who wanted to keep empire. They needed to do all of that as big organisations can’t afford to loose foot print.
 
So Italy is either shafted short, mid and long term by staying in the € and not being able to use the usual levers for getting out of the economic poo, or gets a bailout paid for by the Germans.

Third option is the rules are changed to let Italy drop out of the € but that would involve a seismic shift in the the EU by changing things they’ve already agreed to without considering unforeseen changes in circumstances, something, culturally, many European nation states have difficulty with doing.
Assuming it were legally possible for Italy to drop out of the euro, the implications would be horrendous.

The lira would fall through the floor as investors priced in a potential Italian default on its debt. Borrowing costs for weaker eurozone members would also spike sharply upward for the same reason, pushing one or more of those states into financial meltdown.

The mere threat of the Italians going their own way is going to cause a mass outbreak of brown stained underpants in Brussels. Italy has a strong hand to play - and if they play it adeptly, they can blackmail the EU into substantial concessions.

Longer term, I suspect that a five Star/Northern League government will make Gordon Browns irresponsible spending boom look like small change, but the impact of that is still several years down the road - and probably timed to coincide with the next recession.

Wordsmith
 
Ireland has been thriving quite nicely for the past 20 years. Any idea why?

India is hardly small. It's population is and was gargantuan

Might be something to do with Irelands miniscule (effective) Corporation tax rates
EU to find ways to make Google, Facebook and Amazon pay more tax
Apple tax and Facebook tax rebate explained | WIRED UK

and the 14 US Multinationals that are in Ireland's top 20 companies Top 1000 Irish Companies

Probably why the EU is trying to rewrite the Tax rules for technology companies.
 
Norway is in the EEA, they can have 3rd country trade deals, the pay the EU for access, they have same regulations and no seat at the table.




who the UK and Ireland?

both countries signed up to live by a certain code in order to have access to single market etc etc - 1 of them wants to leave that’s fair enough - but if you want access you aren’t dealing with 1 country your dealing with 27 !

NI is a different situation due to a bilateral Governmental agreement which the majority of people on the island of Ireland voted in favour of.


Can’t speak for the UK but the Irish Commissioner is appointed by the Irish Government
There is no Irish commissioner .

Ireland has nominated somebody to fill the agricultural post. That post impacts on the UK, but I’ve had no say in it.

At the moment I vote for a councillor, an MSP and an MP. I can vote them out.

I can’t vote out somebody in the House of Lords or the EU commission.

I’m generally not too happy with people with big influence being appointed.
 
There is no Irish commissioner .

Ireland has nominated somebody to fill the agricultural post. That post impacts on the UK, but I’ve had no say in it.

At the moment I vote for a councillor, an MSP and an MP. I can vote them out.

I can’t vote out somebody in the House of Lords or the EU commission.

I’m generally not too happy with people with big influence being appointed.
Yes the same way as every member state

I absolutely agree the Commission has way too much power by the way
 
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