Brexit Endgame

I can only think that a no deal will create massive business opportunities as UK businesses will be able to be more competitive. We will also no longer be bound by the Protected Designation of Origin and can reproduce some EU produce over here.

Yes the EU can produce British PDO goods, but they will still be limited by their own laws.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
Perhaps it's time to revisit the GFA, as it appears unfit for purpose wrt trade.
I'm not convinced it ever was and besides as we were already in the Eu when the GFA was signed, its a red herring and always has been.
 
If DFID stops giving away our taxes the market will get smaller
You've got more chance of Elton John coming out as a hetrosexual
 

Truxx

LE
Well, the EU will need to decide whether the "internal market" trumps the GFA. Likewise, the UK will need to decide whether it maintains tariffs for ALL entry/exit points, or reduces tariffs to zero for ALL entry/exit points. That's the problem.

MFN rules are that under WTO rules, a member nation cannot discriminate. A member nation cannot allow tariff free movement between EU/UK, and yet at the same time apply tariffs to any other WTO member that are not as favourable as the "most favoured nation" status.

The choices for each of the UK and the EU are:
  • WTO exit, tariff checks at Ireland border, import tariff structure same for all WTO members; or
  • WTO exit, no tariff checks at Ireland border, no import tariffs for any WTO member; or
  • EU/UK trade deal outside WTO, where UK/Ireland border matters are dealt with under treaty.
So, the price of maintaining the GFA is either:
  • Accepting a negotiated UK/EU trade agreement; or
  • Reducing all tariffs to zero for all WTO members.
Thus, all the effort is being put into "frictionless" import/export arrangements between UK and RoI, such that the MFN requirements of WTO aren't breached while the GFA terms can be complied with. The EU says "non" to a frictionless tariff border, because it wishes to tie the UK to it's terms.....despite other non-EU countries (e.g. Switzerland) have precisely such arrangements.

Perhaps it's time to revisit the GFA, as it appears unfit for purpose wrt trade.
There is nothing specific in the GFA about trade or borders.

Rather, there is a solumn aspiration to all get along in a spirit of harmony and cooperation, with any new good ideas considered in an all-ireland way.

So provided everyone felt it in the best interests of ireland (n+s) you could have full cavity searches at a border that puts the iron curtain to shame.

Instead the spirit of the GFA has been hijacked and turned into a weapon, which in itself is surely in breach of the spirit (and therefore the letter) of the GFA...
 
Instead the spirit of the GFA has been hijacked and turned into a weapon, which in itself is surely in breach of the spirit (and therefore the letter) of the GFA...
And what else would you expect from a Socialist EU that cares nought for its subjects.
I was always suspicious when the riots started in NI after the GFA was weaponised and then died down. Ran out of EU money perhaps.
 
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Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
They aren’t, it just mean tariffs will be on it just means there will be tariffs on the goods and this will invite competition into the UK from other countries. There may be a loss in trade for EU goods, but it won’t be substantial.
Trade within the EU is tariff free. If both the EU and the competing country now pay (say) a 4% WTO tariff on products coming into the UK next year, that effectively makes the EU product 4% more expensive.

The result will not be immediate, but over time in competitive markets I would expect the EU to slowly but surely lose market share. The margins can be tight on many products - and an effective 4% increase could hit trade volume. It's a double whammy. As as volume falls, the effective fixed cost per product goes up, hitting the supplier's profit margins as well as profits.

Wordsmith
 
Trade within the EU is tariff free. If both the EU and the competing country now pay (say) a 4% WTO tariff on products coming into the UK next year, that effectively makes the EU product 4% more expensive.

The result will not be immediate, but over time in competitive markets I would expect the EU to slowly but surely lose market share. The margins can be tight on many products - and an effective 4% increase could hit trade volume. It's a double whammy. As as volume falls, the effective fixed cost per product goes up, hitting the supplier's profit margins as well as profits.

Wordsmith
I'll watching what happens with the fisheries. I want to see a full return of our waters pre 1975.......without the cod wars:

 
You've got more chance of Elton John coming out as a hetrosexual
The recent reshuffle may well bring DFID under at least some level of control. They are now mandated to work in tandem with the FCO and their CS are being tasked accordingly.

however the CS may resist as is happening at the Ministry of Truth (aka Home Office).

YM
 
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Trade within the EU is tariff free. If both the EU and the competing country now pay (say) a 4% WTO tariff on products coming into the UK next year, that effectively makes the EU product 4% more expensive.

The result will not be immediate, but over time in competitive markets I would expect the EU to slowly but surely lose market share. The margins can be tight on many products - and an effective 4% increase could hit trade volume. It's a double whammy. As as volume falls, the effective fixed cost per product goes up, hitting the supplier's profit margins as well as profits.

Wordsmith
The marginal tariffs will have an effect over time. What will really screw them is the seasonal bonkers ones and associated quotas, of which there are many. We are at least initially taking the EU common external tariff with 10% of the quotas as our WTO schedule. So all the 400% tariff stuff on in season EU produce will be applied to the EU, precisely when their goods are in season.

We may drop some unilaterally but far smarter to use that leverage to quickly sign trade deals with countries that can replace EU supply in exchange for full access to our goods and services to their markets.

Feck all the EU can do about it at the WTO, it is after all their own tariff regime, just being used against them for a change.
 
Trade within the EU is tariff free. If both the EU and the competing country now pay (say) a 4% WTO tariff on products coming into the UK next year, that effectively makes the EU product 4% more expensive.

The result will not be immediate, but over time in competitive markets I would expect the EU to slowly but surely lose market share. The margins can be tight on many products - and an effective 4% increase could hit trade volume. It's a double whammy. As as volume falls, the effective fixed cost per product goes up, hitting the supplier's profit margins as well as profits.

Wordsmith
Totally agree, but there are goods where people will just accept the 4% (or whatever it is) increase.

Mercedes car for example. I have a firms that drive me about, E class Mercs are the best car for their business, Lexus, Jag etc just don’t cut it in the business they are in.

Wine snobbery will ensure that the French, Italian etc bottles of pish will continue to sell.

It’s not always the cost that’s important, it’s the provenance.
 
So what are the odds that the UK extends the transition period due to the looming economic hit that the globe is about to take? As it stands now the DOW is tanking again, and the ROW of the worlds markets are also in a sharp decline. The first quarter of the year is down the tubes, and the 2nd might also follow suit making 2020 a write off. It seems this is not the time to start from ground zero in the negotiation game.
 
So what are the odds that the UK extends the transition period due to the looming economic hit that the globe is about to take? As it stands now the DOW is tanking again, and the ROW of the worlds markets are also in a sharp decline. The first quarter of the year is down the tubes, and the 2nd might also follow suit making 2020 a write off. It seems this is not the time to start from ground zero in the negotiation game.
Why would it? Their will always be lame excuses for it to be extended.
 
Totally agree, but there are goods where people will just accept the 4% (or whatever it is) increase.

Mercedes car for example. I have a firms that drive me about, E class Mercs are the best car for their business, Lexus, Jag etc just don’t cut it in the business they are in.

Wine snobbery will ensure that the French, Italian etc bottles of pish will continue to sell.

It’s not always the cost that’s important, it’s the provenance.
You are probably right about the high end stuff like mercs, but most people dont drink frog wine because of where it comes from, they drink it because Tescos are doing 3 for 12 quid, exactly the type of people who would switch brands over a 50p increase.
 
So what are the odds that the UK extends the transition period due to the looming economic hit that the globe is about to take? As it stands now the DOW is tanking again, and the ROW of the worlds markets are also in a sharp decline. The first quarter of the year is down the tubes, and the 2nd might also follow suit making 2020 a write off. It seems this is not the time to start from ground zero in the negotiation game.
A lot of that is down to cronovirus - which will be over in a couple of weeks.
 

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