Brexit Endgame

Auld-Yin

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Thats how the EU has always operated, except when it wants something and the goalposts are shifted in a flash.
And that demonstrates the dangerous nature of a governing body with no connection to those they govern. They do not have to consider the nember countries' needs and wants, just those of the Commission.
 

Auld-Yin

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I suggest you take a look at th Denial thread then, you might change your mind about that.
It's nice for them to have a safe-place to melt down in.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I have a feeling Johnson wants a hard Brexit. Mays deal was a deal as a remainer I could have lived with. The issue of freedom of movement will be the biggest hurdle. Trade will always find a way through, money talks.
So you could have lived with a deal that would have left us permanently subservient to the EU and obliged to follow their ever more onerous rules and regulations while having no say in them. And also obliged to pay £8.6 billion dues to the EU in perpetuity as as 'fee' to access the single market.

Well done you...

Wordsmith
 
And that demonstrates the dangerous nature of a governing body with no connection to those they govern. They do not have to consider the nember countries' needs and wants, just those of the Commission.
If you were a moderator sat in a room with 28 other idiots all demanding their own thing and arguing the toss. It quickly becomes clear, that the person who sets the agenda, develops the compromise has more control than the individuals, especially if two of the three biggest characters in the room are already on-board.

History is replete with rulers, who allowed sovereignity to be wielded by lesser mortals, usually with appalling consequences. I have a great fear, that when the EU finally reaches its moment of critical weakness, bad characters will step out of the shadows.
 
So on that basis, the ROI appears to be royally fcuked should we exit on WTO terms?
Well, the EU will need to decide whether the "internal market" trumps the GFA. Likewise, the UK will need to decide whether it maintains tariffs for ALL entry/exit points, or reduces tariffs to zero for ALL entry/exit points. That's the problem.

MFN rules are that under WTO rules, a member nation cannot discriminate. A member nation cannot allow tariff free movement between EU/UK, and yet at the same time apply tariffs to any other WTO member that are not as favourable as the "most favoured nation" status.

The choices for each of the UK and the EU are:
  • WTO exit, tariff checks at Ireland border, import tariff structure same for all WTO members; or
  • WTO exit, no tariff checks at Ireland border, no import tariffs for any WTO member; or
  • EU/UK trade deal outside WTO, where UK/Ireland border matters are dealt with under treaty.
So, the price of maintaining the GFA is either:
  • Accepting a negotiated UK/EU trade agreement; or
  • Reducing all tariffs to zero for all WTO members.
Thus, all the effort is being put into "frictionless" import/export arrangements between UK and RoI, such that the MFN requirements of WTO aren't breached while the GFA terms can be complied with. The EU says "non" to a frictionless tariff border, because it wishes to tie the UK to it's terms.....despite other non-EU countries (e.g. Switzerland) have precisely such arrangements.

Perhaps it's time to revisit the GFA, as it appears unfit for purpose wrt trade.
 
That's not really the case, and it's more subtle than generally appreciated.

WTO rules do not require either the EU or UK to erect borders (or customs/tariff checks). After all, it's the country into which goods are transported that would lose the tariff income.

Where it gets complicated, in the Irish case, is that any standards applied to one nation must apply to all, i.e. if the UK allows good into it on a tariff free basis, it must also allow other WTO member nations to do the same, per the "most favoured nation" protocol.

If, for example, the UK allows Irish beef into NI on a tariff free basis, but import tariffs were applied to US beef imports arrving into Belfast, the US would be expected to raise a dispute via the WTO.

As such, while there is no mechanism in the WTO to require "secure borders", the price of not having the same can be significant.
International trade these days relies to a great extent on known and registered traders being honest, and then checks up on them after the fact through audits or surprise inspections. The objective isn't to stop all smuggling, it is to suppress it to a tolerable level.

As I understand it, the alternative without a free trade deal would be to require commercial operations importing beef (to use your example) from the ROI into the UK to declare how much beef they imported and pay the associated duty. That doesn't have to take place at the border though, and duty doesn't have to be paid on the spot.

Businesses in the UK (e.g. in Northern Ireland) would keep a record of how much they imported and pay the accumulated duty on a regular basis (e.g. monthly). Their books would be subject to audit if there were any suspicions about them, as would any subcontractors they use, such as trucking companies.

With the cooperation of the ROI, companies in the ROI could report their sales records, including to customers in NI and visa versa. This is why a cooperation agreement with the ROI would be important and to the benefit of both parties.

There would doubtless be some customs fraud, but that would take place even with the hardest of hard borders. For example, even if you had customs posts at the border you wouldn't know what was in a truck unless you unloaded and inspected it all, which you wouldn't do unless you already had reason to suspect them.

Customs enforcement in most countries is typically intelligence led. You inspect business records and look for things which don't add up. For example, if a meat wholesaler could not produce adequate records of where they procured their stock which match up with the records of goods sold, you would know that they are either smuggling or dealing in stolen goods, either of which would merit further investigation.

VAT records are probably going to be pretty handy in all this, as each business will be trying to keep the record chain going in order to be able to claim VAT back.

If the ferry operators report the license plates of all the trucks going back and forth between the mainland UK and NI, you would have another set of records to provide intelligence. Neither NI nor the ROI are that big of a place, and any really large scale smuggling is going to stick out like a sore thumb unless the goods are transferred on back to the mainland UK or EU.

You wouldn't stop small scale smuggling, but that is going to happen anyway, and it's not generally financially worth while to try to stop it anyway. As for people filling up the back of their car with groceries and then crossing the border, just have a large personal exemption and they would have to really be trying hard to exceed it.

And of course if prices are lower in the UK than they are in the ROI, then the smuggling will be from the UK into the ROI, in which case it's the EU's problem to sort out.

Under WTO terms without a trade deal you need to offer equivalent terms to all other WTO members parties. You don't have to be perfect, as no WTO member has a hermetically sealed border. You just need to show that you have taken reasonable measures to ensure that traders based in the EU pay their import duty to the UK and aren't giving EU based companies preferential terms without a free trade deal.
 
The EU is either going to have to accept a soft border in Ireland or put in a hard border on the Irish side. Either way the ROI is heading for a world of hurt.
fairly much as predicted then- but don't take an ex Cuzzies word for it. This is where RoI find out just how much of a friend the EU is.
Tony Blair is Keir Starmer ? cleansing of Momentum within the Labour Party will begin soon if the centre gain a hold.

Merthyr has come out in total support of Starmer from the MP/AM down. If the Tweets are to be believed even the local hardcore senior union reps are KS believers.
Nope, but don't you see that Labour has nowhere to go. The Best the Labour MPs can hope for is to join the Lib dems.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
So on that basis, the ROI appears to be royally fcuked should we exit on WTO terms?

Such a shame, couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch....
BoJo will put in a border process that will adequately deal with legitimate trade.

Certain individuals will decide that cross-border smuggling and re-export to the EU can generate large profits as they can circumvent EU import duties that way.

The hard border will come about if the scale of the cross border smuggling/re-export becomes such that it worries the EU. That's the point at which they will start putting a hard border in place. The ROI will thus be the author of its own misfortunes.

Wordsmith
 
WTO rules do not require either the EU or UK to erect borders (or customs/tariff checks). After all, it's the country into which goods are transported that would lose the tariff income.
But in the EU case it isnt about tariff income, it is about protectionism via tariffs.

When the UK starts shipping American Potatoes into Eire with no duty, the EU will go ballistic.

The UK doesn't care. cheap tariff free goods into the UK across the border are not perfect, but not the end of the world.

But its different for Eire.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
BoJo will put in a border process that will adequately deal with legitimate trade.

Certain individuals will decide that cross-border smuggling and re-export to the EU can generate large profits as they can circumvent EU import duties that way.

The hard border will come about if the scale of the cross border smuggling/re-export becomes such that it worries the EU. That's the point at which they will start putting a hard border in place. The ROI will thus be the author of its own misfortunes.

Wordsmith
Yes..... but before the EU erect the hard border they will run a propaganda programme where they will point out that this is not their fault but the nasty UK who is forcing them to break the GFA and forcing them to put up a hard border. Not the fault the the Borg Commission, no sireee, not us!
 
Tony Blair is Keir Starmer ? cleansing of Momentum within the Labour Party will begin soon if the centre gain a hold.

Merthyr has come out in total support of Starmer from the MP/AM down. If the Tweets are to be believed even the local hardcore senior union reps are KS believers.
They have no other alternative.

Happy to see him in opposition. He will be there for a long time.
 
I don't think he actually believed or agreed with the sentiments he posted, just did it for effect.
And the effect was...that he proved to us the subtle distinction of being ‘on' arse, and ‘an’ arse, and leaving us all thinking that he was a ‘perfect' arse!!!
 
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International trade these days relies to a great extent on known and registered traders being honest, and then checks up on them after the fact through audits or surprise inspections. The objective isn't to stop all smuggling, it is to suppress it to a tolerable level.

As I understand it, the alternative without a free trade deal would be to require commercial operations importing beef (to use your example) from the ROI into the UK to declare how much beef they imported and pay the associated duty. That doesn't have to take place at the border though, and duty doesn't have to be paid on the spot.

Businesses in the UK (e.g. in Northern Ireland) would keep a record of how much they imported and pay the accumulated duty on a regular basis (e.g. monthly). Their books would be subject to audit if there were any suspicions about them, as would any subcontractors they use, such as trucking companies.

With the cooperation of the ROI, companies in the ROI could report their sales records, including to customers in NI and visa versa. This is why a cooperation agreement with the ROI would be important and to the benefit of both parties.

There would doubtless be some customs fraud, but that would take place even with the hardest of hard borders. For example, even if you had customs posts at the border you wouldn't know what was in a truck unless you unloaded and inspected it all, which you wouldn't do unless you already had reason to suspect them.

Customs enforcement in most countries is typically intelligence led. You inspect business records and look for things which don't add up. For example, if a meat wholesaler could not produce adequate records of where they procured their stock which match up with the records of goods sold, you would know that they are either smuggling or dealing in stolen goods, either of which would merit further investigation.

VAT records are probably going to be pretty handy in all this, as each business will be trying to keep the record chain going in order to be able to claim VAT back.

If the ferry operators report the license plates of all the trucks going back and forth between the mainland UK and NI, you would have another set of records to provide intelligence. Neither NI nor the ROI are that big of a place, and any really large scale smuggling is going to stick out like a sore thumb unless the goods are transferred on back to the mainland UK or EU.

You wouldn't stop small scale smuggling, but that is going to happen anyway, and it's not generally financially worth while to try to stop it anyway. As for people filling up the back of their car with groceries and then crossing the border, just have a large personal exemption and they would have to really be trying hard to exceed it.

And of course if prices are lower in the UK than they are in the ROI, then the smuggling will be from the UK into the ROI, in which case it's the EU's problem to sort out.

Under WTO terms without a trade deal you need to offer equivalent terms to all other WTO members parties. You don't have to be perfect, as no WTO member has a hermetically sealed border. You just need to show that you have taken reasonable measures to ensure that traders based in the EU pay their import duty to the UK and aren't giving EU based companies preferential terms without a free trade deal.
Absolutely, it's the natural corollary, but it's also a position the EU are refusing to adopt.
 
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Boris Johnson is asking the EU for a Canada-style trade deal but will consider whether to walk away from talks in June and prepare for an “orderly” exit from the transition period.

Setting out its negotiating mandate for EU talks, Downing Street said it wanted “regulatory freedom” from the EU and would not accept any role for the European court of justice (ECJ) in dispute resolution mechanisms.

That kinda kills the whole of the EU's 68 page negotiation document.

Perhaps the EU already know the game is over and that is why they are turning to Africa


Not sure how big the market is in Africa for German cars :D :D
 
Yes..... but before the EU erect the hard border they will run a propaganda programme where they will point out that this is not their fault but the nasty UK who is forcing them to break the GFA and forcing them to put up a hard border. Not the fault the the Borg Commission, no sireee, not us!
Brexit was cast as a villain, so everything and anything that derives from it is deemed our fault.. Its a useful argument for brussels, to act stubbornly and argue to other member states, that we are not acting in goodwill and confused about what we wanted....... The fact is TM was the intermediate step from brussels getting all its way, to Boris 'to hell with you' attitude....

The ugly reflection for Brussels, is our supposed ill will, has being evident in everything that brussels has done and the fault for our exit, then further right exit is layed at theirs and leos doorstep.
 
Not sure how big the market is in Africa for German cars :D :D
For the despots corrupt rulers leaders of African countries they'll buy as many as you can ship over for themselves, their kids and immediate family. Rolex oysters also go down well.
 

That kinda kills the whole of the EU's 68 page negotiation document.

Perhaps the EU already know the game is over and that is why they are turning to Africa


Not sure how big the market is in Africa for German cars :D :D
Depends how much foreign aid keeps being shipped out there :p
 

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