Brexit Endgame

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
BoJo definitely telling the EU to do one....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/26/boris-johnson-set-ditch-political-declaration-agreements-eu/
Boris Johnson is preparing to tear up part of the Brexit deal as he sets out his "red lines" for a trade agreement with the European Union on Thursday. The Prime Minister has made it clear that he will not be bound by the political declaration attached to the EU Withdrawal Agreement, which sets out the ground rules for a trade deal. Downing Street sources said the rules of engagement agreed by Mr Johnson last year had been superseded by promises made in the Tory manifesto on which he was elected in December.
And there's not a lot the EU can do about it.
Mr Johnson's official spokesman said: "The Withdrawal Agreement is an international treaty – the political declaration is not of that status."
And...
Britain will refuse to sign up to EU rules on state aid, and will not build any infrastructure to deal with customs declarations on goods crossing from the mainland to Northern Ireland despite EU demands that they must exist.
There is only one interpretation that can be put on the above.
  1. BoJo is fully prepared to trade with the EU on WTO rules unless he gets the trade deal he wants.
  2. Even with a trade deal, BoJo intends to take measures to make the UK more competitive on the world stage that will be fiercely resisted by Brussels.
  3. The EU is either going to have to accept a soft border in Ireland or put in a hard border on the Irish side. Either way the ROI is heading for a world of hurt.
  4. This is going to end up in an unholy scrap between Brussels and Westminster. Unfortunately for Brussels, BoJo has an 80 seat majority and can put whatever deal he likes through parliament
This is also going to cause a big fracture line within the EU between states that want trade with the UK to continue broadly uninterrupted (i.e Germany) and states that want a protectionist approach (i.e. France).

In poker terms, BoJo has just gone 'all-in'. Await the teddy launching from Brussels over the next few days.

From a personal perspective, it's great we at long last have a PM who's putting the UK's interests first and the EU's interests a long way second.

Wordsmith
 

Tyk

LE
BoJo definitely telling the EU to do one....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/26/boris-johnson-set-ditch-political-declaration-agreements-eu/


And there's not a lot the EU can do about it.


And...


There is only one interpretation that can be put on the above.
  1. BoJo is fully prepared to trade with the EU on WTO rules unless he gets the trade deal he wants.
  2. Even with a trade deal, BoJo intends to take measures to make the UK more competitive on the world stage that will be fiercely resisted by Brussels.
  3. The EU is either going to have to accept a soft border in Ireland or put in a hard border on the Irish side. Either way the ROI is heading for a world of hurt.
  4. This is going to end up in an unholy scrap between Brussels and Westminster. Unfortunately for Brussels, BoJo has an 80 seat majority and can put whatever deal he likes through parliament
This is also going to cause a big fracture line within the EU between states that want trade with the UK to continue broadly uninterrupted (i.e Germany) and states that want a protectionist approach (i.e. France).

In poker terms, BoJo has just gone 'all-in'. Await the teddy launching from Brussels over the next few days.

From a personal perspective, it's great we at long last have a PM who's putting the UK's interests first and the EU's interests a long way second.

Wordsmith
Fair analysis and to my mind the right way for HMG to negotiate with Brussels. Yes it looks a bit macho, but when it comes to this sort of negotiation it's the only way HMG can really go for a deal they want. Brussels has already made it clear they want the opposite and a UK irretrievably bound by rules that suit them.
It will be interesting to watch how this all pans out.
 
If Dominic Cummings was writing the EU demands they could not be better. Utter nonsense and so easy to play politically that they never wanted a deal we should be free of the pretence of negotiations inside a couple of months.

Crack on with RoW deals now.
 
If Dominic Cummings was writing the EU demands they could not be better. Utter nonsense and so easy to play politically that they never wanted a deal we should be free of the pretence of negotiations inside a couple of months.

Crack on with RoW deals now.
I reckon Dom would fit in well with the Arrse community


Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
 
Most of the eurozone countries are already in breach of the eurozone rules and have been for many years. For example, your debt to GDP ratio should be no more than 60%. France's is a trifling 98.4% - and that's better than a lot of countries.
Of course.

Just another reason why the UK should tell the EU where to shove their '' Level playing field '' '' Regulatory alignment '' and '' EU rules and standards as a reference point ''

If the EU cannot adhere to their own own rules and regulations, why should they expect anyone else to adhere to them.
 
I remember many years ago.soon after Bulgaria and Romania joined, a former Dutch Minister saying that the EU would eventually break-up because it is like the Old Austrian-Hungarian Empire. It is just too diverse with too many competing influences.
 
  1. The EU is either going to have to accept a soft border in Ireland or put in a hard border on the Irish side. Either way the ROI is heading for a world of hurt
This is what I don't understand. I have been saying this for several years, only to have remainders tell me I dont understand.

Thr border control on the Irish border is an EU/eire problem, not a UK
one. Expect to see EU border control on the Irish border, getting bricks and petrol bombs as they try to persuade gentlemen of the south to pay duties...

Agree re the world of pain as well.
 
Thr border control on the Irish border is an EU/eire problem, not a UK
one.
That's not really the case, and it's more subtle than generally appreciated.

WTO rules do not require either the EU or UK to erect borders (or customs/tariff checks). After all, it's the country into which goods are transported that would lose the tariff income.

Where it gets complicated, in the Irish case, is that any standards applied to one nation must apply to all, i.e. if the UK allows good into it on a tariff free basis, it must also allow other WTO member nations to do the same, per the "most favoured nation" protocol.

If, for example, the UK allows Irish beef into NI on a tariff free basis, but import tariffs were applied to US beef imports arrving into Belfast, the US would be expected to raise a dispute via the WTO.

As such, while there is no mechanism in the WTO to require "secure borders", the price of not having the same can be significant.
 
WTO rules do not require either the EU or UK to erect borders
Correct

Where it gets complicated,
It has never been complicated. This border fiasco was invented for 2 reasons.

1. As part of Project Fear.

2. The EU / Barnier are still insisting that a border is required to protect '' The integrity of the Single Market ''

Therefore to protect the '' Integrity of the Single Market ''

1. Any border must be built on the Irish side of the border.

2. All / Any goods going to the Republic would have to be shipped to N.Ireland before transfer to the Republic.

3. The UK mainland can no longer be used as a transit route between the ROI and the EU / the EU / ROI.

There are still idiots at ministerial level shouting that the UK will have to build a border in the Irish Sea
 
Any Remaineratti on ARRSE want to tell us what a great opportunity we lost by not signing up to May's agreement?
Higgs B, Higs B. Where’s Higgs B??????

The other remainer lot are in Brussels getting shriller by the day.

Barnier sounding like a cracked gramophone record, poor chap still can’t quite grasp why we aren’t jumping to his every ridiculous demand.
 
Last edited:

45x45

LE
Indeed. Another 32 posts shitcanned to the aforementioned thread.

2 weeks ban in place for the main contenders.

Before anyone whinges, you should know better. I've given enough warnings. Save it for complaining to Admin if you think I'm being unreasonable.
Moderation at its finest.
 

45x45

LE
But that strategy provoked anger in the Baltic states, which Mr Blair visited yesterday. The Estonian Prime Minister, Andrus Ansip, said: "Solidarity means for us that rich countries have to help those countries that are not so rich."

Tony Blair is Keir Starmer ? cleansing of Momentum within the Labour Party will begin soon if the centre gain a hold.

Merthyr has come out in total support of Starmer from the MP/AM down. If the Tweets are to be believed even the local hardcore senior union reps are KS believers.
 

45x45

LE
Higgs B, Higs B. Where’s Higgs B??????

The other remainer lot are in Brussels getting shriller by the day.

Barnier sounding like a cracked gramophone record, poor chap still can’t quite grasp why we aren’t jumping to his every ridiculous demand.
I have a feeling Johnson wants a hard Brexit. Mays deal was a deal as a remainer I could have lived with. The issue of freedom of movement will be the biggest hurdle. Trade will always find a way through, money talks.
 
BoJo definitely telling the EU to do one....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/26/boris-johnson-set-ditch-political-declaration-agreements-eu/


And there's not a lot the EU can do about it.


And...


There is only one interpretation that can be put on the above.
  1. BoJo is fully prepared to trade with the EU on WTO rules unless he gets the trade deal he wants.
  2. Even with a trade deal, BoJo intends to take measures to make the UK more competitive on the world stage that will be fiercely resisted by Brussels.
  3. The EU is either going to have to accept a soft border in Ireland or put in a hard border on the Irish side. Either way the ROI is heading for a world of hurt.
  4. This is going to end up in an unholy scrap between Brussels and Westminster. Unfortunately for Brussels, BoJo has an 80 seat majority and can put whatever deal he likes through parliament
This is also going to cause a big fracture line within the EU between states that want trade with the UK to continue broadly uninterrupted (i.e Germany) and states that want a protectionist approach (i.e. France).

In poker terms, BoJo has just gone 'all-in'. Await the teddy launching from Brussels over the next few days.

From a personal perspective, it's great we at long last have a PM who's putting the UK's interests first and the EU's interests a long way second.

Wordsmith
Excellent, after 3 years of meek surrender & remaniac back stabbing we are finally having a negotiation worthy of the name. I don’t doubt there will be a deal done. The EU, if not already, will at some point smell the coffee & realise who holds the cards.

But then again, if no deal done, WTO it is, what’s not to like.

happy days...
 
That's not really the case, and it's more subtle than generally appreciated.

WTO rules do not require either the EU or UK to erect borders (or customs/tariff checks). After all, it's the country into which goods are transported that would lose the tariff income.

Where it gets complicated, in the Irish case, is that any standards applied to one nation must apply to all, i.e. if the UK allows good into it on a tariff free basis, it must also allow other WTO member nations to do the same, per the "most favoured nation" protocol.

If, for example, the UK allows Irish beef into NI on a tariff free basis, but import tariffs were applied to US beef imports arrving into Belfast, the US would be expected to raise a dispute via the WTO.

As such, while there is no mechanism in the WTO to require "secure borders", the price of not having the same can be significant.
So on that basis, the ROI appears to be royally fcuked should we exit on WTO terms?

Such a shame, couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch....
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
Excellent, after 3 years of meek surrender & remaniac back stabbing we are finally having a negotiation worthy of the name. I don’t doubt there will be a deal done. The EU, if not already, will at some point smell the coffee & realise who holds the cards.

But then again, if no deal done, WTO it is, what’s not to like.

happy days...
And isn't the radio silence from most Remain/Rejoiners lovely. I hope, for their own mental welfare, that they have accepted Brexit has happened and there is no going back.

Normal negotiation involves give and take where both side juggle for positions that favour each in their own priorities. We have learned though, that the EU do not negotiate normally, just set out their stall and refuse to move. Boris is handling this perfectly by responding in kind, and meaning it.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
He made a (now rightfully deleted) post re the holocaust. And is now enjoying an ARRSE free period.

Wordsmith
Which I think he did quite deliberately to look like the Arrse Martyr. I don't think he actually believed or agreed with the sentiments he posted, just did it for effect.

I have no doubt a sock-puppet will pop up soon, if not already among us!
 
And isn't the radio silence from most Remain/Rejoiners lovely. I hope, for their own mental welfare, that they have accepted Brexit has happened and there is no going back.

Normal negotiation involves give and take where both side juggle for positions that favour each in their own priorities. We have learned though, that the EU do not negotiate normally, just set out their stall and refuse to move. Boris is handling this perfectly by responding in kind, and meaning it.
Thats how the EU has always operated, except when it wants something and the goalposts are shifted in a flash.
 

Helm

MIA
Moderator
Book Reviewer
Which I think he did quite deliberately to look like the Arrse Martyr. I don't think he actually believed or agreed with the sentiments he posted, just did it for effect.

I have no doubt a sock-puppet will pop up soon, if not already among us!
I suggest you take a look at th Denial thread then, you might change your mind about that.
 

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