Brexit Endgame

Johnson's own government's analysis have warned that his deal will reduce annual economic growth by 6.7% compared to staying in the EU.

Indeed?

“The Government's own research says that Boris Johnson's Brexit proposals would lead to a 6.7% drop in GDP and 6.4% drop in real wages - the kind of hit to the economy experienced in the financial crash.”
Chuka Umunna, 18 October 2019
Mr Umunna was referencing economic analyses published by the government in November 2018, which modelled the economic outcomes under different Brexit scenarios. But he’s wrong to say GDP and real wages would “drop” according to this analysis and his comparison to the financial crash is misleading.
But that would be Prime Minister Theresa May government?



Or not indeed;

wrong.PNG


However, that aside, it’s incorrect to claim the analysis said that the proposals would lead to a 6.7% drop to GDP, as Mr Umunna said. The analysis said that GDP would be up to 6.7% lower after 15 years than it would have been compared to remaining in the EU. The document said “in all scenarios the economy would be expected to grow.”
This comparison between Brexit’s impact and the financial crisis is flawed


edit for indeed.
 
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skid2

LE
Book Reviewer

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I'm going to out @Higgs_bosun - he in fact is Liberal Democrat Peer Lord Greaves.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/01/14/post-brexit-britain-will-like-nazi-germany-claims-lib-dem-peer/
Post-Brexit Britain will be “reminiscent” of Germany under the Nazis, a peer has said, as he claimed people are crying themselves to sleep over the UK’s exit from the EU. Lord Greaves used a debate on Boris Johnson’s Withdrawal Bill in the House of Lords to draw comparison between Britain after January 31 and Germany in the 1930s.

He added: “Many, many people in this country...who are full of dismay, distress are crying at night when they go to sleep, they are crying in the morning when they wake up and all they get from the unfeeling, hard-headed Tories is moans.”
So, Higgsy, when do the concentration camps open?

Wordsmith
 
this was always goingto be the case once the remainers gave up - every fibre of their being was aimed at stopping brexit and undervaluing and undermining the uk s position to stop it - once they ve accepted its happening they ve had to open their minds and actually consider the advantages they previously denied would exist - theirs a long way to go yet and no doubt many hiccups to come but I predict that when the dust settles previously rabid remainers will quietly deny their previous opposition and kid on they were fully supportive- particularly when the EU /euro collapses
The people who once assured us that not joining the Euro was a disastrous mistake from which we'd never recover have vanished without trace.

Why did they never continue to press their case for us to join the Euro?
 
I'm going to out @Higgs_bosun - he in fact is Liberal Democrat Peer Lord Greaves.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/01/14/post-brexit-britain-will-like-nazi-germany-claims-lib-dem-peer/


So, Higgsy, when do the concentration camps open?

Wordsmith
The very same social liberals were happy to ignore the eurosceptic majority for decades and called anyone opposed to deeper union, basket cases and closet fascists. As they're plowed ahead full speed, into the european dream, indifferent to opposition....

This social liberalism that these kind of people support, seems completely at odds with democracy. As show in a series of democratic defeats, the entitled classes still want and demand to be heard.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
And here's two good reasons why the EU will do a trade deal before the end of the year.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/14/us-uk-trade-talks-begin-pressure-mounts-brussels-strike-deal/
Trade Secretary Liz Truss has kicked off talks with the US ambassador as Britain scrambles to fast-track a deal with America that would pile pressure on Brussels. Both sides are hoping a deal to slash tariffs can be reached rapidly - cutting the cost of US goods for British consumers and opening new opportunities for British firms in the American market.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/post-brexit-britain-will-turbo-charge-trade-relations-africa/
Unshackled by European Union membership, Britain will be able to “turbo-charge” relations with Africa after Brexit by striking trade and business deals across the continent, the International Development Secretary has said. Alok Sharma told the Telegraph that an unprecedented summit with African leaders in London next week offers Britain an important opportunity to flex its financial heft in the emerging world’s final frontier.
We have a £66 billion trade deficit with the EU. The EU is now being made very aware that EU goods could well be replaced by goods from other countries should they not sign an FTA rapidly. And the loss of a significant part of that £66 billion trade surplus translates into several million job losses over the EU.

We are (at least) beginning to negotiate from a position of strength - not rolling over and playing dead like May did.

Wordsmith
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
How about a counter offer:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/13/eu-trade-commissioner-raises-possibility-financial-services/
Britain could cut a deal to protect its finance firms by giving the European Union access to its fishing waters, Brussels trade commissioner Phil Hogan has said.
I'd come back with something like "we'll give you the right to sell goods in the UK in return for the right to sell financial services into Europe.

This is the EU crapping itself about protest from ROI, French and Spanish fishermen going out of business if they lose access to UK waters. The EU fishing boats take far more fish out of our waters than UK boats take out of what will become EU fishing waters.

As a minor bonus, it would also make Scottish independence slightly less likely. If Scottish fishermen prosper after gaining full control over their fishing grounds, they won't want to see control handed back to the EU and 'foreign' fishing boats taking huge catches.

Wordsmith
 
A cautionary article by Timothy Bradshaw

Don’t hail Brexit just yet. We could still end up in EU vassalage

ByTimothy Bradshaw - January 15, 2020

IN the general euphoria since Boris Johnson’s decisive election victory, it is tempting to ignore the very real difficulties the UK still faces in leaving the EU with an acceptable trade deal.

Harry Western, a top economist in the private sector, writing for Briefings for Brexit, is under no such illusion.

In a recent article, he makes the simple points that: The EU is not seeking a fair deal for the EU and the UK; its driving concern is with the single market and its regulations; its main aim is to keep the UK in its regulative control system; it does not want a ‘thin’ free WTO (World Trade Organisation) agreement that leaves the UK free.

Why we should be surprised? To do anything other, after all, would be counter to the EU’s main imperial ambition which, as Rodney Atkinson reiterated in these pages recently, has never been about free trade and prosperity, but about a single ‘country called Europe’.


This was essentially what was behind new European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s recent speech in London. Underneath the warm words was a steely message about keeping the manacles on the UK in place.

Link to full article:


https://conservativewoman.co.uk/dont-hail-brexit-just-yet-we-could-still-end-up-in-eu-vassalage/
 
A cautionary article by Timothy Bradshaw

Don’t hail Brexit just yet. We could still end up in EU vassalage

ByTimothy Bradshaw - January 15, 2020

IN the general euphoria since Boris Johnson’s decisive election victory, it is tempting to ignore the very real difficulties the UK still faces in leaving the EU with an acceptable trade deal.

Harry Western, a top economist in the private sector, writing for Briefings for Brexit, is under no such illusion.

In a recent article, he makes the simple points that: The EU is not seeking a fair deal for the EU and the UK; its driving concern is with the single market and its regulations; its main aim is to keep the UK in its regulative control system; it does not want a ‘thin’ free WTO (World Trade Organisation) agreement that leaves the UK free.

Why we should be surprised? To do anything other, after all, would be counter to the EU’s main imperial ambition which, as Rodney Atkinson reiterated in these pages recently, has never been about free trade and prosperity, but about a single ‘country called Europe’.

This was essentially what was behind new European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s recent speech in London. Underneath the warm words was a steely message about keeping the manacles on the UK in place.

Link to full article:


Don’t hail Brexit just yet. We could still end up in EU vassalage | The Conservative Woman
True to a point, but that really does depend on the MS holding together and the functions of the EP. The people have only just finished playing musical chairs. Mr Atkinson is correct as some of us have pointed out, the level playing field has always been the EU’s position not free trade. It really does depend if Boris has the balls to walk away should that be warranted. But at this stage given the machinations of the EU, China, US etc I’d say things are not set in stone.
 
Let not Euphoria on leaving blind us to the fact that the UK is it's only friend.
Everyone else is out to get the best deal for themselves.
 
A cautionary article by Timothy Bradshaw

Don’t hail Brexit just yet. We could still end up in EU vassalage

ByTimothy Bradshaw - January 15, 2020

IN the general euphoria since Boris Johnson’s decisive election victory, it is tempting to ignore the very real difficulties the UK still faces in leaving the EU with an acceptable trade deal.

Harry Western, a top economist in the private sector, writing for Briefings for Brexit, is under no such illusion.

In a recent article, he makes the simple points that: The EU is not seeking a fair deal for the EU and the UK; its driving concern is with the single market and its regulations; its main aim is to keep the UK in its regulative control system; it does not want a ‘thin’ free WTO (World Trade Organisation) agreement that leaves the UK free.

Why we should be surprised? To do anything other, after all, would be counter to the EU’s main imperial ambition which, as Rodney Atkinson reiterated in these pages recently, has never been about free trade and prosperity, but about a single ‘country called Europe’.

This was essentially what was behind new European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s recent speech in London. Underneath the warm words was a steely message about keeping the manacles on the UK in place.

Link to full article:


Don’t hail Brexit just yet. We could still end up in EU vassalage | The Conservative Woman
Now now, we don't need that sort of thing. Disseminating ideas that the EU is not a shiny eutopia, without a bad bone in its body and certainly is not fixed on one outcome, that remainers have consistently denied and decried as fiction.

By the bye, even vassalage is better than total subjugation.. If the empire ever starts to break up, we at least have an easier exit strategy and vassalage also helps focus the minds on defining who exactly is the enemy.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
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Reviews Editor
Now now, we don't need that sort of thing. Disseminating ideas that the EU is not a shiny eutopia, without a bad bone in its body and certainly is not fixed on one outcome, that remainers have consistently denied and decried as fiction.

By the bye, even vassalage is better than total subjugation.. If the empire ever starts to break up, we at least have an easier exit strategy and vassalage also helps focus the minds on defining who exactly is the enemy.
The one definite thing about that article is that this ain't News.
 

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