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Brazil to build a nuclear submarine

gallowglass said:
Poor Sergey, desperately scrabbling about the news for any sign that some country - any country - is going to challenge the United Sates.

Point to bear in mind regarding the question you posed at the beginning of this thread - they're Brazilians. The only thing their armed and security forces are good at is gunning down their own people. Brazil's enormous internal social problems (have you seen Rio's slums?) make the less pleasant parts of the USA look like Switzerland. General rule of thumb Sergey - Central and South American countries aren't taken seriously internationally because they barely function as nation-states. Good at football, good-looking models, great music, good weather, vibrant culture etc....but damn all use otherwise.

Hi Gollowglass!

30 yesrs ago you could say something like this about China but definetely not now. Maybe you would like to repeat you statement toward India?

There are so called BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia, India and China. It is expected that in the not so remote future total economics of the 4 would be bigger that G7 (G8 - Russia) countries.

The appetites are apperaring in the process of eating. Economic power, wealth, natural resources require means to defend them.
 
Uh... folks, Brazil is very concerned about the balance of power in the region since Hugo started his buying spree. This development wasn't out of the blue either... their navy expressed an interest in nuclear powered subs in the 90's.
 
And, to add to it, I very much doubt Russia would have a lot to contribute to the BRIC as you term it. Not the way it's going.
 
Bouillabaisse said:
30 years ago the People's Liberation Army gave the Red Army a bloody nose, so not really a good comparison, Sergey.

Both sides regarded inhabitated Damansky island as their territory. Soviet version:

http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/cold.war/episodes/15/spotlight/

Our observation posts noted the advance of 30 armed Chinese military men on the island of Damansky. Consequently, a group of Soviet border guards was dispatched to the location where the Chinese had violated the border. The officer in charge of the unit and a small contingent approached the border violators with the intention of registering protests and demanding (without using force) that they leave Soviet territory, as had been done repeatedly in the past. But within the first minutes of the exchange, our border guards came under crossfire and were insidiously shot without any warning. At the same time, fire on the remaining parts of our force was opened from an ambush on the island and from the Chinese shore

The Chinese sent to the island several hundreds soldiers. All of them (with rare exceptions) were killed by heavy gun-fire and powerfull missiles. Chinese version of numbers of casualities:

according to Chinese sources, the two battles for Damansky/Zhen Bao Island resulted in a total of 250 Soviet casualties and more than 100 Chinese casualties.

According to Soviet data

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict

On March 2, 1969 a Soviet patrol and Chinese forces came into conflict. Both sides claimed that the other side attacked first. The Soviets suffered 31 dead and 14 wounded. They then retaliated by bombarding Chinese troop concentrations in Manchuria and by storming Damansky/Zhenbao Island. The Soviet forces claimed that the Chinese suffered 800 casualties while the Soviets only had 60 killed or wounded.

As a result Soviet union reestablished control over the island. And China didn't repeat such incursions. Unlikely it looks as a great victory for the Chinese.

I was a boy that time but remember the incident pretty well. Pravda newspaper published a full list of fallen heroes. Streets in some cities were named in the honour of the fallen. Almost all were killed at the first day.

Soviet hawks showed to China all Soviet strength. The island itself and nearby areas were bombed so heavily that unlikely even one human being had chances to survive. After it Soviet forces entered the island without even one shot.

My uncle, former colonel of GRU analysed satelite images during the conflict (btw, China was his area of responsibility in 60's and 70's). All movements of Chinese troops were known to Soviet generals but China hadn't this capability.
 
Because I believe all propoganda from the Soviet machine.

I don't believe you or your sources, Sergey, because, as we all know, your country was hardly transparent in the Cold War.
 
The_Goon said:
And, to add to it, I very much doubt Russia would have a lot to contribute to the BRIC as you term it. Not the way it's going.

Yes, you are right. China and India will be major contributors.

http://www.hindu.com/biz/2003/12/29/stories/2003122900341600.htm

The World Bank publishes estimates of gross national income (GNI) in terms of nominal as well as purchasing power parity (PPP) of various economies.
...
The study predicts that the size of the BRIC economies could exceed that of the G-6 countries, consisting of the U.S., Japan, Italy, France, Germany and the U.K., by 2039. Of the G-6 countries, only the U.S. and Japan may remain among the six largest in U.S. dollar terms by 2050. China could be the largest economy by 2041.

Look at the last table in the article. Here are predictions for GDP (2050) in billions of $$

China 44,453
USA 35,165
India 27,803
Japan 6,673
Brazil 6,074
Russia 5,870
Germany 3,603
The UK - no data.
 
Bouillabaisse said:
The Chileans would be quite handy in a shooting war.

Granted, I did say "as a general rule of thumb", but yes, I should have made an exception for the Chileans. I have cousins over there, one of whom is a former Chilean Army officer, and I found that his outlook and opinions differed considerably from what I would have expected from a member of a South American military.

Recruiting_Office_reject said:
The Chileans should not be tarred with the same brush as the rest, they have an excellent navy (using several not so old ex RN & Dutch ships) which includes the excellent Scorpene sub. Their army once its finished its current upgrading (350 Leopards etc) won't be so bad either. Their airforce has newish F-16's as well. They are probably the most professional of the South American military forces.

Maybe Brazil is responding the the build up of its neighbours ?

In terms of history, tradition (decidedly Prussian in ethos) and approach, I would concur that the Chileans are without doubt the most professional force in South America. Ironically, during the Pinochet years it was felt by many in the Chilean Armed Forces that they were being neglected, particularly in terms of equipment.

Surely Brazil, with its population and land mass, cannot really fear its neighbours? Perhaps it's a case of 'keeping up with the Jones''?

KGB_resident said:
Hi Gollowglass!

30 yesrs ago you could say something like this about China but definetely not now. Maybe you would like to repeat you statement toward India?

There are so called BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia, India and China. It is expected that in the not so remote future total economics of the 4 would be bigger that G7 (G8 - Russia) countries.

The appetites are apperaring in the process of eating. Economic power, wealth, natural resources require means to defend them.

Howdo Sergey,

I certainly wouldn't have said something like this about China – remembering Korea – nor India. I stand by what I said about Brazil though.

The economies of the BRIC countries might become bigger than those of the G7…if the economies of the G7 countries collapse or stand still for the next thirty years. If you like Sergey, I can direct you to similar predictions dating from the 1970s which predicted alternatively that (a) the world's oil reserves would run out by 1990 or 2000 (wrong); (b) that a new ice age would occur (wrong) or that (c)thermonuclear war would have broken out by 1980/85/90 (wrong). One prediction I am inclined to believe however is that Russia is in a demographic death spiral, which will rather upset your belief that it will form part of the BRIC economic powerhouse; I'm inclined to believe this because it's already happening.

I'm always amused at how ready – or is that desperate? – you are to predict the end of the United States as a hyperpower based on the last six years (or last four years if you take Iraq as your benchmark), when your own country has been bogged-down in Chechnya for thirteen years, is governed by a former secret policeman, has merely the outward appearances of democracy, has no middle class worth speaking of, is still rendered numb by the collapse of the Soviet Union and has health problems – most prominent among them HIV/AIDS – unequalled elsewhere in the developed world. After 70-plus years of Communism, followed by the shambles that came after, the only way Russia is going to equal or outstrip the United States is if the US deliberately decides to kill off a high proportion of its own citizens, destroys its middle class, and enforces a system of political and economic governance upon itself which a child would recognise as unworkable; in short, the United States would need to commit national suicide in order to f*ck itself up to the extent that Russia was.
 
KGB_resident said:
I was a boy that time but remember the incident pretty well. Pravda newspaper published a full list of fallen heroes. Streets in some cities were named in the honour of the fallen. Almost all were killed at the first day.

Soviet hawks showed to China all Soviet strength. The island itself and nearby areas were bombed so heavily that unlikely even one human being had chances to survive. After it Soviet forces entered the island without even one shot.

Oh, oh, dear. Your using Pravda as a reference here? Sounds very Iraqi Information Minister - "all the Chinese were wiped out. Every one. And without casulaties on our side. And here you can see a street we named after one of our fallen heroes."
 
gallowglass said:
In terms of history, tradition (decidedly Prussian in ethos) and approach, I would concur that the Chileans are without doubt the most professional force in South America.

They went very much as the japanese did and selected the best examples of how to run a military. The Chilean Army is very Germanic (I suspect it also reflects some of their ethnic backgrounds) but the Navy models itself on the Royal Navy. This also erflects its foundation and heroes, particulalry that great military genius, Admiral Lord Cochrane.
 
gallowglass said:
The economies of the BRIC countries might become bigger than those of the G7…if the economies of the G7 countries collapse or stand still for the next thirty years. If you like Sergey, I can direct you to similar predictions dating from the 1970s which predicted alternatively that (a) the world's oil reserves would run out by 1990 or 2000 (wrong); (b) that a new ice age would occur (wrong) or that (c)thermonuclear war would have broken out by 1980/85/90 (wrong). One prediction I am inclined to believe however is that Russia is in a demographic death spiral...

Once there were 8 mlns. of the Irish in Ireland. Now there are only 4. But it doesn't mean the Irish nation is vanishing, not at all. And the Russian will not vanish too.

gallowglass said:
I'm always amused at how ready – or is that desperate? – you are to predict the end of the United States as a hyperpower based on the last six years (or last four years if you take Iraq as your benchmark), when your own country has been bogged-down in Chechnya for thirteen years

Yes I predict the end of era of 'the only superpower' in the World. But it is not a tragedy. USA is a great country and I wish our American friends all the best. We should look at USA and learn.

Life in Chechya goes better and better. But Iraqi situation goes from bad to worse.

gallowglass said:
...is governed by a former secret policeman,

Bush father also had some connections to the secret services.

gallowglass said:
...has merely the outward appearances of democracy,

I guess that namely the Russians have right to deside have we democracy or not. If by democracy you mean poodles at power then definetly we haven't ones in Kremlin.

gallowglass said:
has no middle class worth speaking of

Maybe. But then I drive my inexpensive Suzuki Liana in the endless stream of Lexuses, Mersedeses, Audi's, BMW's... toward my office then sometimes I doubt that middle class doen't exist.

gallowglass said:
...is still rendered numb by the collapse of the Soviet Union

Oh, nostalgia...

gallowglass said:
...and has health problems – most prominent among them HIV/AIDS – unequalled elsewhere in the developed world.

Health problems? Yes, they exist.

gallowglass said:
...After 70-plus years of Communism, followed by the shambles that came after, the only way Russia is going to equal or outstrip the United States is if the US deliberately decides to kill off a high proportion of its own citizens, destroys its middle class, and enforces a system of political and economic governance upon itself which a child would recognise as unworkable; in short, the United States would need to commit national suicide in order to f*ck itself up to the extent that Russia was.

You wrongly understand my expression 'to be equal power'. Of course, USA is and will be many decades much more powerful from economical point than Russia. However, later or sooner Washington will not be the only centre for decision making. USA will be merely the most developed member of international community and will follow common rules, common for all countries.
 
KGB_resident said:
Once there were 8 mlns. of the Irish in Ireland. Now there are only 4. But it doesn't mean the Irish nation is vanishing, not at all. And the Russian will not vanish too.

The Irish population just before the Great Famine of the 1840s stood at about 6.5 million for what is now the Republic. In practical terms, this was completely unsustainable, as the Famine showed. It declined continuously to the point that it was about 2.8 million in the early 1960s, and has only really increased in the last 10/15 years. Therefore, the Irish nation damn near vanished as a viable entity not all that long ago, and the Famine certainly killed off the Irish language. Demographically, 8 out of 10 people born in the Republic between c.1922 and c.1962 left the country. That aside, the point you appear to be missing is that whilst the Irish population has now stabilised and is increasing, that of Russia is markedly decreasing, to the point where if present trends continue, ethnic Russians could well be a minority in their own country by mid-century (assuming of course they haven't been islamicised).

KGB_resident said:
Yes I predict the end of era of 'the only superpower' in the World. But it is not a tragedy. USA is a great country and I wish our American friends all the best. We should look at USA and learn.

Based upon the usual tired predictions of the Pinter/Moore/Chomsky/Fisk brigade? I've heard that sort of talk before, and no doubt any decade or three now it may actually come to pass...

KGB_resident said:
Life in Chechya goes better and better. But Iraqi situation goes from bad to worse.

Really? Under that Moscow-sponsored thug Ramzan Kadyrov? You must be joking. I'll have a wager with you Sergey - I bet that life in Iraq will improve long before life improves in Chechnya.

KGB_resident said:
Bush father also had some connections to the secret services.

I think you're being more than a little coy Sergey - Putin was a KGB officer, and therefore part of an organisation directly implicated in such events as the Gulag. Was the CIA responsible for the political and social enslavement of Eastern and Central Europe? No - but the KGB was.

KGB_resident said:
I guess that namely the Russians have right to deside have we democracy or not. If by democracy you mean poodles at power then definetly we haven't ones in Kremlin.

Right now it looks like Putin is doing all the deciding for the Russian people - closing down independent media outlets etc.

KGB_resident said:
Maybe. But then I drive my inexpensive Suzuki Liana in the endless stream of Lexuses, Mersedeses, Audi's, BMW's... toward my office then sometimes I doubt that middle class doen't exist.

God help you Sergey if you believe that the acquisition of any of the above equates to being middle class. Remember - Abramovich was selling tyres out of the boot of a Lada in 1989, yet I'm sure there are those today who believe him to be 'upper class'. I'm afraid that loading yourself down with gadgets and trinkets cannot make up for the fact that the middle classes were wiped out during the Soviet period. You can give a peasant a Mercedes, but he's still a peasant.

KGB_resident said:
Health problems? Yes, they exist.

They're also killing off vast numbers of Russians.

KGB_resident said:
You wrongly understand my expression 'to be equal power'. Of course, USA is and will be many decades much more powerful from economical point than Russia. However, later or sooner Washington will not be the only centre for decision making. USA will be merely the most developed member of international community and will follow common rules, common for all countries.

What do you base this assertion (or blind hope) upon?
 
Thank you Gallowglass for replay.

gallowglass said:
KGB_resident said:
Once there were 8 mlns. of the Irish in Ireland. Now there are only 4. But it doesn't mean the Irish nation is vanishing, not at all. And the Russian will not vanish too.

The Irish population just before the Great Famine of the 1840s stood at about 6.5 million for what is now the Republic. In practical terms, this was completely unsustainable, as the Famine showed. It declined continuously to the point that it was about 2.8 million in the early 1960s, and has only really increased in the last 10/15 years. Therefore, the Irish nation damn near vanished as a viable entity not all that long ago, and the Famine certainly killed off the Irish language. Demographically, 8 out of 10 people born in the Republic between c.1922 and c.1962 left the country. That aside, the point you appear to be missing is that whilst the Irish population has now stabilised and is increasing, that of Russia is markedly decreasing, to the point where if present trends continue, ethnic Russians could well be a minority in their own country by mid-century (assuming of course they haven't been islamicised).

In both cases (Irealand and Russia) the main cause was the same - catastrophic economical situation. Ireland became prosperous at least 20-30 years ago and demographic situation bacame to improve. Economic situation in Russia has changed to goog relatively recently (only few years ago) as a result experts predict baby boom rather sooner than later.

gallowglass said:
KGB_resident said:
Yes I predict the end of era of 'the only superpower' in the World. But it is not a tragedy. USA is a great country and I wish our American friends all the best. We should look at USA and learn.

Based upon the usual tired predictions of the Pinter/Moore/Chomsky/Fisk brigade? I've heard that sort of talk before, and no doubt any decade or three now it may actually come to pass...

I expressed my opinion, you have another point of view. No problem, it's not a tragery. Simply, let's wait and see.

gallowglass said:
KGB_resident said:
Life in Chechya goes better and better. But Iraqi situation goes from bad to worse.

Really? Under that Moscow-sponsored thug Ramzan Kadyrov? You must be joking. I'll have a wager with you Sergey - I bet that life in Iraq will improve long before life improves in Chechnya.

Again we can only wait. Iraq is still the prime source of news while Chechnya rather has been forgotten by Western main-stream mass-media. But why? Where are no sensational news there. Airport was restored and functions. Beauty saloon and internet cafe were opened. Nothing special.

gallowglass said:
KGB_resident said:
Bush father also had some connections to the secret services.

I think you're being more than a little coy Sergey - Putin was a KGB officer, and therefore part of an organisation directly implicated in such events as the Gulag. Was the CIA responsible for the political and social enslavement of Eastern and Central Europe? No - but the KGB was.

Mr.Putin server in military intelligence division (btw, my father served in military counter-intelligence). Almost all political prisoners were freed after Stalin's death in 1953 (btw, mr.Putin was born in 1952). So mr.Putin hadn't any relation to Soviet political prisoners.

And CIA is not a salvation army. Recently we become aware that CIA used criminals in political assasinations. So Bush father could have direct connections with criminals.

gallowglass said:
KGB_resident said:
I guess that namely the Russians have right to deside have we democracy or not. If by democracy you mean poodles at power then definetly we haven't ones in Kremlin.

Right now it looks like Putin is doing all the deciding for the Russian people - closing down independent media outlets etc.

Just today I rang to BBC-Russian radio from my car and made my opinion about causes of disproportionate reaction of the UK to Russian refusal to extradict mr.Lugovoy (a suspect in Litvinenko case). BBC in Russian is available on all bands (including FM). Euronews channel is freely available in Moscow 24 hours per day. Everybody can freely listen to Radio Freedom (funded by american congress btw). This year radio Voice of America in Russian will be closed (ther are no listeners). and you call it absence of 'independent media outlets'?

gallowglass said:
KGB_resident said:
Maybe. But then I drive my inexpensive Suzuki Liana in the endless stream of Lexuses, Mersedeses, Audi's, BMW's... toward my office then sometimes I doubt that middle class doen't exist.

God help you Sergey if you believe that the acquisition of any of the above equates to being middle class. Remember - Abramovich was selling tyres out of the boot of a Lada in 1989, yet I'm sure there are those today who believe him to be 'upper class'. I'm afraid that loading yourself down with gadgets and trinkets cannot make up for the fact that the middle classes were wiped out during the Soviet period. You can give a peasant a Mercedes, but he's still a peasant.

May I ask you Gallowglass? Can your obedient servan be regarded as a typical representative of the middle class? At least from formal pont of view? My flat (that I own) cost $320-350 thousands. I have a brick-house in countryside. There are 3 cars in our family of 4. I pay $4 thousands per year for my daughter - student of Mocsow Juridicial Academy. From Western point of view I'm rather poor but in Moscow I maybe belong to lower part of the middle class.

gallowglass said:
KGB_resident said:
Health problems? Yes, they exist.

They're also killing off vast numbers of Russians.

KGB_resident said:
You wrongly understand my expression 'to be equal power'. Of course, USA is and will be many decades much more powerful from economical point than Russia. However, later or sooner Washington will not be the only centre for decision making. USA will be merely the most developed member of international community and will follow common rules, common for all countries.

What do you base this assertion (or blind hope) upon?

I think that Iraq was a good lesson for many. Unlikely so called American allies would blindly follow orders from Washington. More and more countries will openly oppose USA (as Venezuela and Iran). As for Russia then mr.Putin openly declared his position and he is not somebody who only speaks. If it would be needed then Russia would make very paibful for USA steps, effective, inexpensive and even profitable. When did last time American tanks had opportunity to meet with Russian sophisticated anti-tank missiles or American ships with Russian anti-ship missiles? But in theory it is possible (if USA would ignore Russian point of view of course).
 
Why would they want a noisy nuclear sub when they can buy an excellent silent German one off the shelf for a great deal less?

Unless it is my “manhood is bigger than yours”.

You could probably get a lot of first class anti shipping aircrafts for the price of a nuc sub.
 
Does anyone with current experience know whether Sergey is responding to an internal Russian propaganda build-up, and getting all wound up about the threats from the world to Mother Russia, or if it's just his own paranoia growing as his tin-foil hat wears a bit thin?

He seems to be starting a lot of similar threads at the moment.
 
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