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Boris - The Prime Minister

First thoughts on PMBoris, will he make a difference?


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Uh - Huh






You keep saying this and totally ignore the heart, lungs and brain damage issue. Whilst the risk of death might be much reduced, we still don't know what the long term consequences are.
Madrid isn't a country, Magellan.
 
Best wishes. I also know two separate individuals who are convinced that they had back in early January. AFAIK, the Govt are still maintaining that there were no cases in the UK this early.

But they were in Europe before Christmas, so it would be strange if the virus refused to travel with people who came across to the UK
 
See figures in my other post - boy racers in cars will probably injure/kill as many as the long term health damage from Covid 19. There are also a series of academic papers showing the increased non-Covid 19 deaths from other factors such as lack of hospital treatment or long term unemployment from a reduced economy.

There is risk whatever you do. You cannot focus on the Covid 19 risk to the exclusion of all others.

Wordsmith


the boy racer is only likely to kill himself and maybe a couple of others . The average RTC involves a single vehicle which remains on all 4 wheels. Bad RTC's (and I've been to a few) obviously involve more people, and have an impact on transport, local hospitals etc

A foolish person with Covid 19 can impact many, many people


 
I grant you that he's been hit by unprecedented problems for a modem prime minister - the only parallel I can think of being the Spanish flue of 1918/19. And the medical advice he's been given is clerkly inconsistent. Yet some things are clear:
  • The disease is most lethal if you are over 70; below that the risk is much reduced and is minimal for younger people
  • The three "C's" apply; Crowds, Confined Spaces and Conversation - the risk increases the more "C's" apply to your current situation
  • The risk of transmission is highest in area of high population density - cities. It's significant reduced in loosely populated areas.
  • Different lockdown regimes are not having much impact on the death rate - well observed loose lockdown regimes are as effective as less policed, tighter lock down regimes.
  • We can learn from countries that are 2 months ahead of us on the Covid 19 curve. We get a preview of future events that will hit the UK two months later.
Given the above, it would not be difficult to a construct a course of action that should remain unchanged for a minimum of three months.

As to the La Sturgeons of this world - Boris neds to say loud and clear that at the end of the crisis, the Office of National Statistics will conduct an independent investigation at the end of this crisis, identifying the respective death rates per capita in England, Scotland, Wales and Norther Ireland. with the model published, along with the input data so it is available for independent scrutiny.

If Sturgeon wants to conduct her own policy, then she should be held accountable for its effects - as should BoJo for his.

BoJo's first problem is inconsistency - frequent changes of direction, giving the impression of indecision. His second problem is is failure to consult parliament before each change of course - the need to explain his decisions in debate might have removed the worst of the u-turns.

BoJo has got a lot of other things right, but Covid 19 has not been his finest hour.

Wordsmith
All reasonable points. Of course the problem arises that what is innocuous to youngsters is not to the elderly, either way it means the elderly would be penalised and that means the care homes, in part. Fact is that care provision in care homes is not NHS specific and the inmates pay for it.
Second factor is that the reporting Is not consistent and it follows that the more tests that are done the higher the detection rates. I asked for a test at my surgery and was told that as I didn’t have the symptoms I couldn’t qualify. But that does not mean I can’t transmit. But this is NHS led!
Testing in itself I think is problematic. Given the scuttlebutt of unreliability in some testing systems, one would have thought that the scientific community, by whom we are led would have verified the systems. So it seems that charlatans have Carte Blanche.
Lastly if Johnson is still suffering the effects of Covid, surely the system provides for the Chancellor as no 2 to take over his post, but it does not mean that Johnson CAN control All these factors. I certainly have no faith that Labour or the Lib Dem’s could do better in these times.
 
All reasonable points. Of course the problem arises that what is innocuous to youngsters is not to the elderly, either way it means the elderly would be penalised and that means the care homes, in part. Fact is that care provision in care homes is not NHS specific and the inmates pay for it.

Yeah - I know. My father, who had severe senile dementia, ended his days in a care home. But people in care homes can be protected. Access is tightly controlled - you have to be buzzed in by a member of staff. Providing staff are tested daily and not allowed to work in multiple care homes and visitors are restricted , the death rate in care and nursing homes could be kept low.

Second factor is that the reporting Is not consistent and it follows that the more tests that are done the higher the detection rates. I asked for a test at my surgery and was told that as I didn’t have the symptoms I couldn’t qualify. But that does not mean I can’t transmit. But this is NHS led!

This annoys me - they never report the number of positive tests as a percentage. Just reporting the numbers themselves without any context is meaningless.

Testing in itself I think is problematic. Given the scuttlebutt of unreliability in some testing systems, one would have thought that the scientific community, by whom we are led would have verified the systems. So it seems that charlatans have Carte Blanche.

A lot of this seemed to be ministerial panic. Having announced unrealistic goals to ramp up testing, they then had to let the charlatans in as part of a futile attempt to hit those unrealistic goals. Soundbite politics from some people who'd struggle to run a bath, let alone a nationwide testing program.

Lastly if Johnson is still suffering the effects of Covid, surely the system provides for the Chancellor as no 2 to take over his post, but it does not mean that Johnson CAN control All these factors. I certainly have no faith that Labour or the Lib Dem’s could do better in these times.

I don't think Johnson is suffering from the after effects. I think he's good at some things and bad at others. Covid 19 is something he's bad at.

Wordsmith
 
Yeah - I know. My father, who had severe senile dementia, ended his days in a care home. But people in care homes can be protected. Access is tightly controlled - you have to be buzzed in by a member of staff. Providing staff are tested daily and not allowed to work in multiple care homes and visitors are restricted , the death rate in care and nursing homes could be kept low.
My own father had Alzheimer’s but was looked after by mum on her own. A somewhat scurrilous decision on her part and skeleton in the cupboard. He ultimately died of a stroke. Her decision backfired on her later, but she died at home 10 years in January (time flies) but my family made sure she was looked after . We were with her when she died.
 
the boy racer is only likely to kill himself and maybe a couple of others . The average RTC involves a single vehicle which remains on all 4 wheels. Bad RTC's (and I've been to a few) obviously involve more people, and have an impact on transport, local hospitals etc

A foolish person with Covid 19 can impact many, many people


I hear what you're saying, but here's the flip side of the problem.

Ministers are secretly preparing for four million people to join the ranks of the unemployed because of the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Therese Coffey, said her department was now preparing to support that level of unemployed people, but said she "genuinely hopes" that we do not reach that figure.

You can keep Covid 19 deaths down, but then you're looking at a big rise in unemployment. There are no good choices left.

We are going to have to accept a higher Covid death rate in order to keep unemployment down and the economy going. It's a lot easier to destroy jobs than it is to create them.

The company I work for is taking on people and taking the opportunity of a temporary reduction in business to carry out some much needed internal reorganisation while we're quiet. We are still profitable, although profits are down.

We are an exception to the rule. Much of our client base is hurting.

Wordsmith
 
I hear what you're saying, but here's the flip side of the problem.



You can keep Covid 19 deaths down, but then you're looking at a big rise in unemployment. There are no good choices left.

We are going to have to accept a higher Covid death rate in order to keep unemployment down and the economy going. It's a lot easier to destroy jobs than it is to create them.

The company I work for is taking on people and taking the opportunity of a temporary reduction in business to carry out some much needed internal reorganisation while we're quiet. We are still profitable, although profits are down.

Much of our client base is hurting.

Wordsmith


if we kill loads of people there will be plenty of jobs left.

You'll remember the 1347 - 1352 outbreak of bubonic plague?

 
if we kill loads of people there will be plenty of jobs left.

You'll remember the 1347 - 1352 outbreak of bubonic plague?


Yep - but the Black Death killed about 1/3 of the population of Europe - there's nothing to suggest the mortality rate of Covid 19 will come within an order of magnitude of that.

There is a trade off between increased Covid deaths and protecting the economy. Rishi Sunak has already made BoJo's choices for him. At the end of this month the furlough scheme ends and a much more affordable one begins. Unemployment will go up sharply, leaving BoJo with little option but to give increased priority to protecting the economy.

Wordsmith
 
if we kill loads of people there will be plenty of jobs left.

You'll remember the 1347 - 1352 outbreak of bubonic plague?


I grew up near some plague villages, all that was left was the pub and the watermill marking buildings that would have existed back then, some villages never really recovered to their former selves

So yes good for jobs, good for workers freedoms, but it also had a lasting impact in other ways that can still be seen today
 
Stand by for a u-turn on the 10 o'clock pub curfew.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/01/boris-johnson-facing-new-revolt-pub-curfew/
Boris Johnson is facing a new rebellion from Tory MPs over the national 10pm curfew after he was accused of presiding over a "nanny state". Rebels are discussing whether they can force a vote on the issue under rules that allow MPs retrospective debates about changes to regulations brought in by ministers.

I suspect the decision will be reversed in the next few day as BoJo cannot afford the blow to his authority should a debate be forced and parliament vote to reverse the curfew.

It also appears that the curfew was a 'back of fag packet' idea.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...nder-boris-johnson-will-call-time-pub-curfew/
It emerged that the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) had not actually modelled the effect of the curfew, and the behavioural science sub-group had not been consulted on how people might react. The economic consequences also appeared to have been completely overlooked, with business minister Paul Scully forced to admit earlier this week that "no [economic] assessment had been made" before implementing the policy.

It is increasingly becoming clear that this was soundbite politics - the government trying to show "something was being done" without any scientific basis for the action.

There is also further embarrassment on the horizon as a couple of parliamentary select committees are demanding to see the evidence on which the decision was made. "Minister on toast" will be on the menu.

Wordsmith
 
BoJo, as I predicted some time back, is steadily getting in more of a tangle over Covid 19. Part of the problem is he 'doesn't do detail', part of the problem is that there is no medical consensus on the way forward, and part of the problem is he's trying to be all things to all people; you can't both keep the economy going and minimise Covid 19 deaths - the price of a functional economy is more Covid 19 deaths. He needs to level with people on that.

As I've said before, BoJo needs to take a common sense approach, work out a path that is a compromise between getting the economy back on track and keeping Covid 19 deaths down - and stick to it. He keeps making up policy on the hoof, which is now seriously pi$$ing off significant parts of the Tory party.

He needs to:
  1. Come up with simple and easily understandable rules - not the present fuster cluck
  2. Get parliamentary support
  3. Roll out the rules and stick to them through thick and thin over the winter - baring a major change in the nature of the virus. Don't get blown off course by adverse and ill informed media comment.
  4. Use common sense in policing the rules; don't punish minor, unintentional violations. Imprison deliberate and serious breaches of the rules; sweatshop owners, rave organisers and so on.
BoJo is rapidly running out of goodwill in his own party, many of whom have their heads in their hands over the mess the Tory Covid 19 management has degenerated into.

Wordsmith

Afraid Covid is just the tip of the sh!t pile. UC is just starting to come to the notice of the press, albeit just the Gruniad at the moment. A lot of people who have never given a moment's tought to the problems of being on UC are experiencing it now or will be in the future for themselves. You can expect a slow burn on this but sooner or later another 2 million or so are going to be on it before the end of winter. DWPis in the middle of recruiting extra 13,500 work coaches at a frenetic pace, likewise Serco for ancillary admin roles. Gawd bless Fanny Fields and I. D!ckhead-Smith for their cross-party legacy, which is being slated as becoming a bigger scandal that Corvid could be.
 
Afraid Covid is just the tip of the sh!t pile. UC is just starting to come to the notice of the press, albeit just the Gruniad at the moment. A lot of people who have never given a moment's tought to the problems of being on UC are experiencing it now or will be in the future for themselves. You can expect a slow burn on this but sooner or later another 2 million or so are going to be on it before the end of winter. DWPis in the middle of recruiting extra 13,500 work coaches at a frenetic pace, likewise Serco for ancillary admin roles. Gawd bless Fanny Fields and I. D!ckhead-Smith for their cross-party legacy, which is being slated as becoming a bigger scandal that Corvid could be.

The problem with UC was Osborne. In the Major government, IDS became increasingly concerned about sink estates. When the Tories went into opposition, he spent a lot of his own time and money setting up the Centre for Social Justice - a think tank concerned with how the plight of those on sink estate could be improved.


IDS thus had a deep understanding of the problems - he'd spent a lot of his own time actually talking to people on the worst estates. And UC was designed to simplify the hugely complex, bureaucratic and inefficient system of multiple benefits that was then in place. A single benefit on easily understandable principles.

Step forward George Osborne, who saw himself as the Tory party's master strategist and next Tory PM after Call Me Dave. He set out to clip IDS's wings by reducing funding for the implementation of UC and by interfering as much as he could. As a result, the implementation of UC became a fuster cluck and IDS resigned.

A good idea ruined by a pr1ck who could not bear to see another minister succeed and become more influential in the party.

Wordsmith
 
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