I grant you that he's been hit by unprecedented problems for a modem prime minister - the only parallel I can think of being the Spanish flue of 1918/19. And the medical advice he's been given is clerkly inconsistent. Yet some things are clear:
- The disease is most lethal if you are over 70; below that the risk is much reduced and is minimal for younger people
- The three "C's" apply; Crowds, Confined Spaces and Conversation - the risk increases the more "C's" apply to your current situation
- The risk of transmission is highest in area of high population density - cities. It's significant reduced in loosely populated areas.
- Different lockdown regimes are not having much impact on the death rate - well observed loose lockdown regimes are as effective as less policed, tighter lock down regimes.
- We can learn from countries that are 2 months ahead of us on the Covid 19 curve. We get a preview of future events that will hit the UK two months later.
Given the above, it would not be difficult to a construct a course of action that should remain unchanged for a minimum of three months.
As to the La Sturgeons of this world - Boris neds to say loud and clear that at the end of the crisis, the Office of National Statistics will conduct an independent investigation at the end of this crisis, identifying the respective death rates per capita in England, Scotland, Wales and Norther Ireland. with the model published, along with the input data so it is available for independent scrutiny.
If Sturgeon wants to conduct her own policy, then she should be held accountable for its effects - as should BoJo for his.
BoJo's first problem is inconsistency - frequent changes of direction, giving the impression of indecision. His second problem is is failure to consult parliament before each change of course - the need to explain his decisions in debate might have removed the worst of the u-turns.
BoJo has got a lot of other things right, but Covid 19 has not been his finest hour.
Wordsmith