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Boris - The Prime Minister

First thoughts on PMBoris, will he make a difference?


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Ho, ho, ho!
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I don’t doubt that he (and his wider family) are intelligent, witty, engaging and affable. Being a good dinner party guest doesn’t make you a good leader of your country in arguably its greatest crisis science WW2.

A small example, If he had more effective intelligence and emotional intelligence, he would have got and listened to some honest feedback from someone prepared to speak truth unto power on his last 2 pre-recorded messages to the nation and then had them rescripted and re-recorded. They were both rambling and incoherent and utterly risible to the country at large. It’s not about soaring oratory, but it is about clear communication.

There’s 2 views here. One is that it’s all going swimmingly, a bunch of snowflakes and the woke are getting their knickers in a twist about a bad case of the ‘flu. There’s another view and that is that the government’s response is a shit show. The lunatics will say that its conspiracy, others will say that its cock up.

In some(?) months, the final tally will be in, public enquiries would have their initial reports in probably, and we will all have a much better idea of what has gone well and what has not. Happy to eat my virtual hat if BJ has done the business and better for the country short and long term if that is the case.
You missed his most important qualification - apparently he can recite the Iliad in Greek from memory.
 
There’s 2 views here. One is that it’s all going swimmingly, a bunch of snowflakes and the woke are getting their knickers in a twist about a bad case of the ‘flu. There’s another view and that is that the government’s response is a shit show. The lunatics will say that its conspiracy, others will say that its cock up.
Or there's a third view that it's somewhere between the two extremes. There are some things the gov't has done well, but they'll never be admitted by some, and there's other things the gov't has mishandled but that'll never be admitted by others. Hindsight is always 20/20 and just because the outcome isn't right doesn't always mean that the initial premise on the course of action was wrong. Just that when dealing with probabilistic outcomes you have to accept that it isn't always possible to predict the future with 100% certainty
 
I don’t doubt that he (and his wider family) are intelligent, witty, engaging and affable. Being a good dinner party guest doesn’t make you a good leader of your country in arguably its greatest crisis science WW2.

A small example, If he had more effective intelligence and emotional intelligence, he would have got and listened to some honest feedback from someone prepared to speak truth unto power on his last 2 pre-recorded messages to the nation and then had them rescripted and re-recorded. They were both rambling and incoherent and utterly risible to the country at large. It’s not about soaring oratory, but it is about clear communication.

There’s 2 views here. One is that it’s all going swimmingly, a bunch of snowflakes and the woke are getting their knickers in a twist about a bad case of the ‘flu. There’s another view and that is that the government’s response is a shit show. The lunatics will say that its conspiracy, others will say that its cock up.

In some(?) months, the final tally will be in, public enquiries would have their initial reports in probably, and we will all have a much better idea of what has gone well and what has not. Happy to eat my virtual hat if BJ has done the business and better for the country short and long term if that is the case.
Well we have what we have. A couple of things obtain.
There is no comparator in this country as we don’t have the brilliant Lib Dem’s or Labour Governments to compare with. It’s also fairly pointless comparing us with other countries. It’s also compounded by the fact that the Scientists barely understand what the disease is or how it works, so the scientists have been wrong and they would have remained wrong with any other government. Best scientific advice is just that, but no guarantee.
so in effect we have government by committee ,it’s just that some aren’t on it, so they can point the finger. We’ve also had a whole batch of misinformation from various sources which are supposed to be impeccable. But then, I’m not totally convinced this is just about Covid....
 
I don’t doubt that he (and his wider family) are intelligent, witty, engaging and affable. Being a good dinner party guest doesn’t make you a good leader of your country in arguably its greatest crisis science WW2.

A small example, If he had more effective intelligence and emotional intelligence, he would have got and listened to some honest feedback from someone prepared to speak truth unto power on his last 2 pre-recorded messages to the nation and then had them rescripted and re-recorded. They were both rambling and incoherent and utterly risible to the country at large. It’s not about soaring oratory, but it is about clear communication.

There’s 2 views here. One is that it’s all going swimmingly, a bunch of snowflakes and the woke are getting their knickers in a twist about a bad case of the ‘flu. There’s another view and that is that the government’s response is a shit show. The lunatics will say that its conspiracy, others will say that its cock up.

In some(?) months, the final tally will be in, public enquiries would have their initial reports in probably, and we will all have a much better idea of what has gone well and what has not. Happy to eat my virtual hat if BJ has done the business and better for the country short and long term if that is the case.

I think I belong to “the country at large“.
Not a single person has told me they thought the two messages referred to were “utterly risible”, or anything resembling that.
 
I think I belong to “the country at large“.
Not a single person has told me they thought the two messages referred to were “utterly risible”, or anything resembling that.
Same here, it's almost as if some people were watching with a pre-made viewpoint.
 
I don’t doubt that he (and his wider family) are intelligent, witty, engaging and affable. Being a good dinner party guest doesn’t make you a good leader of your country in arguably its greatest crisis science WW2.

A small example, If he had more effective intelligence and emotional intelligence, he would have got and listened to some honest feedback from someone prepared to speak truth unto power on his last 2 pre-recorded messages to the nation and then had them rescripted and re-recorded. They were both rambling and incoherent and utterly risible to the country at large. It’s not about soaring oratory, but it is about clear communication.

There’s 2 views here. One is that it’s all going swimmingly, a bunch of snowflakes and the woke are getting their knickers in a twist about a bad case of the ‘flu. There’s another view and that is that the government’s response is a shit show. The lunatics will say that its conspiracy, others will say that its cock up.

In some(?) months, the final tally will be in, public enquiries would have their initial reports in probably, and we will all have a much better idea of what has gone well and what has not. Happy to eat my virtual hat if BJ has done the business and better for the country short and long term if that is the case.
Boris wasn’t elected to lead the country in a crisis. He was elected to get Brexit done. No party is ever going to get elected if it’s leader pitches that he or she was the man for the next black swan crisis. Parties are elected because they pitch a manifesto that deals best with the immediate concerns and aspirations of the electorate.

It’s also pretty clear that the Government (and country) has been badly let down by the public sector bodies that are supposed to deliver policy and capability. From the abject failure of PHE over testing to that of NHS procurement over PPE, through the unbelievable clinical incompetence of discharging elderly COVID cases into care homes to the shonky Ferguson modelling and much more, performance has been massively lacking.

Add in the Byzantine structure of UK governance and devolution, the toxic political bias of much of the media, union obstruction etc etc and Boris is on a hiding to nothing. However good a leader in crisis he is, couldn’t win, a situation exacerbated by his own health.
 
...to the shonky Ferguson modelling...

I'm curious. On 16th March, Ferguson's team release a paper that predicts a quarter-million deaths if we don't lock down harder (back when DC is allegedly muttering about "herd immunity", and the Cheltenham Festival was allowed to go ahead). We're already at 60,000 excess deaths after a hard lockdown, when the model was muttering about restricting us to a total of 40,000 deaths over two years, for the restrictions we've seen. What's so implausible about a quarter-million dead if we'd left the schools and workplaces open?

If anything, the model has been demonstrated to be too optimistic. We're past the number of deaths it estimated, for the measures that it estimated. Which is hardly a surprise, because they only finished writing it at the start of March.

The model's code may be crap, but as some wise man once said; "All models are wrong; but some are useful". In this case, it was useful in that it finally succeeded in persuading the Government to lock down the country, albeit a week later than it should have happened.
 
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I don’t doubt that he (and his wider family) are intelligent, witty, engaging and affable. Being a good dinner party guest doesn’t make you a good leader of your country in arguably its greatest crisis science WW2.

A small example, If he had more effective intelligence and emotional intelligence, he would have got and listened to some honest feedback from someone prepared to speak truth unto power on his last 2 pre-recorded messages to the nation and then had them rescripted and re-recorded. They were both rambling and incoherent and utterly risible to the country at large. It’s not about soaring oratory, but it is about clear communication.

There’s 2 views here. One is that it’s all going swimmingly, a bunch of snowflakes and the woke are getting their knickers in a twist about a bad case of the ‘flu. There’s another view and that is that the government’s response is a shit show. The lunatics will say that its conspiracy, others will say that its cock up.

In some(?) months, the final tally will be in, public enquiries would have their initial reports in probably, and we will all have a much better idea of what has gone well and what has not. Happy to eat my virtual hat if BJ has done the business and better for the country short and long term if that is the case.
Oh dear, still having to pay for your internet?

If only Jezza was P M...
 
I'm curious. On 16th March, Ferguson's team release a paper that predicts a quarter-million deaths if we don't lock down harder (back when DC is allegedly muttering about "herd immunity", and the Cheltenham Festival was allowed to go ahead). We're already at 60,000 excess deaths after a hard lockdown, when the model was muttering about restricting us to a total of 40,000 deaths over two years, for the restrictions we've seen. What's so implausible about a quarter-million dead if we'd left the schools and workplaces open?

If anything, the model has been demonstrated to be too optimistic. We're past the number of deaths it estimated, for the measures that it estimated. Which is hardly a surprise, because they only finished writing it at the start of March.

The model's code may be crap, but as some wise man once said; "All models are wrong; but some are useful". In this case, it was useful in that it finally succeeded in persuading the Government to lock down the country, albeit a week later than it should have happened.
Just over half of the excess deaths are a result of lockdown, not COVID-19. They are people who have died because they have been denied medical treatment for other causes.

The fact that there is an apparent correlation between the predicted deaths and actual deaths doesn’t mean that there would be the death rate predicted with no lockdown or a less severe lockdown. It could be a random coincidence.

Other countries have had significantly lower death rates with minimal lockdown, without the deep damage to their economies or the large spike in excess deaths amongst the non-infected.
 
I don’t doubt that he (and his wider family) are intelligent, witty, engaging and affable. Being a good dinner party guest doesn’t make you a good leader of your country in arguably its greatest crisis science WW2.

A small example, If he had more effective intelligence and emotional intelligence, he would have got and listened to some honest feedback from someone prepared to speak truth unto power on his last 2 pre-recorded messages to the nation and then had them rescripted and re-recorded. They were both rambling and incoherent and utterly risible to the country at large. It’s not about soaring oratory, but it is about clear communication.

There’s 2 views here. One is that it’s all going swimmingly, a bunch of snowflakes and the woke are getting their knickers in a twist about a bad case of the ‘flu. There’s another view and that is that the government’s response is a shit show. The lunatics will say that its conspiracy, others will say that its cock up.

In some(?) months, the final tally will be in, public enquiries would have their initial reports in probably, and we will all have a much better idea of what has gone well and what has not. Happy to eat my virtual hat if BJ has done the business and better for the country short and long term if that is the case.

The dead aren't piled in the streets; cities and towns aren't burning and ravaged by feral gangs; utilities and communications are working; the EU are finally beginning to understand we are leaving and the best attack that his detractors can manage was a failed attempts at getting one of his advisors fired.

Life isn't perfect, but I'd stack that state of affairs against any feeble no-mark you care to nominate to replace PMBJ.

Who do you have in mind?
 
Just over half of the excess deaths are a result of lockdown, not COVID-19. They are people who have died because they have been denied medical treatment for other causes.

The fact that there is an apparent correlation between the predicted deaths and actual deaths doesn’t mean that there would be the death rate predicted with no lockdown or a less severe lockdown. It could be a random coincidence.

Other countries have had significantly lower death rates with minimal lockdown, without the deep damage to their economies or the large spike in excess deaths amongst the non-infected.

Slight quibble with that. People aren't expressly being denied medical treatment, they are not seeking it when their conditions deteriorate because of the fear of contracting COVID-19. I've been receiving texts from my GP since the middle of April encouraging me to check on vulnerable relatives and make sure they attend appointments as other medical issues aren't on hold. There may be complications with the logistics but all medical sites are either still open for normal business or have offered a clearly defined alternative.
 
Slight quibble with that. People aren't expressly being denied medical treatment, they are not seeking it when their conditions deteriorate because of the fear of contracting COVID-19. I've been receiving texts from my GP since the middle of April encouraging me to check on vulnerable relatives and make sure they attend appointments as other medical issues aren't on hold. There may be complications with the logistics but all medical sites are either still open for normal business or have offered a clearly defined alternative.
The stats don’t lie though do they? Excess deaths are 20k more than COVID-19 deaths over the same period. And that’s without allowing for the significant reduction in accidental deaths thanks to lockdown.
 
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