Boris - The Prime Minister

First thoughts on PMBoris, will he make a difference?


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I don’t doubt that he (and his wider family) are intelligent, witty, engaging and affable. Being a good dinner party guest doesn’t make you a good leader of your country in arguably its greatest crisis science WW2.

A small example, If he had more effective intelligence and emotional intelligence, he would have got and listened to some honest feedback from someone prepared to speak truth unto power on his last 2 pre-recorded messages to the nation and then had them rescripted and re-recorded. They were both rambling and incoherent and utterly risible to the country at large. It’s not about soaring oratory, but it is about clear communication.

There’s 2 views here. One is that it’s all going swimmingly, a bunch of snowflakes and the woke are getting their knickers in a twist about a bad case of the ‘flu. There’s another view and that is that the government’s response is a shit show. The lunatics will say that its conspiracy, others will say that its cock up.

In some(?) months, the final tally will be in, public enquiries would have their initial reports in probably, and we will all have a much better idea of what has gone well and what has not. Happy to eat my virtual hat if BJ has done the business and better for the country short and long term if that is the case.
The dead aren't piled in the streets; cities and towns aren't burning and ravaged by feral gangs; utilities and communications are working; the EU are finally beginning to understand we are leaving and the best attack that his detractors can manage was a failed attempts at getting one of his advisors fired.

Life isn't perfect, but I'd stack that state of affairs against any feeble no-mark you care to nominate to replace PMBJ.

Who do you have in mind?
 

Trans-sane

LE
Book Reviewer
Just over half of the excess deaths are a result of lockdown, not COVID-19. They are people who have died because they have been denied medical treatment for other causes.

The fact that there is an apparent correlation between the predicted deaths and actual deaths doesn’t mean that there would be the death rate predicted with no lockdown or a less severe lockdown. It could be a random coincidence.

Other countries have had significantly lower death rates with minimal lockdown, without the deep damage to their economies or the large spike in excess deaths amongst the non-infected.
Slight quibble with that. People aren't expressly being denied medical treatment, they are not seeking it when their conditions deteriorate because of the fear of contracting COVID-19. I've been receiving texts from my GP since the middle of April encouraging me to check on vulnerable relatives and make sure they attend appointments as other medical issues aren't on hold. There may be complications with the logistics but all medical sites are either still open for normal business or have offered a clearly defined alternative.
 
Slight quibble with that. People aren't expressly being denied medical treatment, they are not seeking it when their conditions deteriorate because of the fear of contracting COVID-19. I've been receiving texts from my GP since the middle of April encouraging me to check on vulnerable relatives and make sure they attend appointments as other medical issues aren't on hold. There may be complications with the logistics but all medical sites are either still open for normal business or have offered a clearly defined alternative.
The stats don’t lie though do they? Excess deaths are 20k more than COVID-19 deaths over the same period. And that’s without allowing for the significant reduction in accidental deaths thanks to lockdown.
 
Have to say the Johnson government should not remove the two week isolation after travel?
The conservative MPs are wrong and if that policy is relaxed, what message does it send. The problem with the tories is they're really don't give a s*** about the people and six week holidays a slew of stories about MPs and the wealthy sunning themselves somewhere nice in europe will have a terrible optic.

I may well be wrong, but I would not be surprised if Cummings threw his weight behind SAGE on this policy and its politically and economically astute.
 
The stats don’t lie though do they? Excess deaths are 20k more than COVID-19 deaths over the same period. And that’s without allowing for the significant reduction in accidental deaths thanks to lockdown.
I'm curious as to why this wholesale massacre hasn't been reported. It's not as if the media would be gunshy about taking the NHS to task over denying life-saving treatment, right?
 
The stats don’t lie though do they? Excess deaths are 20k more than COVID-19 deaths over the same period. And that’s without allowing for the significant reduction in accidental deaths thanks to lockdown.
What stats are those - link ?
 
What stats are those - link ?
Google UK excess death rate and you will find any number of articles which quote the excess death rate since March 24 at just shy of 60000, yet total COVID deaths are 39,000. Alternatively check the weekly all cause death rates published by the government.
 

Trans-sane

LE
Book Reviewer
The stats don’t lie though do they? Excess deaths are 20k more than COVID-19 deaths over the same period. And that’s without allowing for the significant reduction in accidental deaths thanks to lockdown.
The stats may not lie, but the way you presented them for comment... Rather loaded. Don't work for the BBC do you? It is NOT down to people having heart attacks being turned away from hospital as you implied. It is down to people with existing health conditions feeling a bit peaky and making the decision to NOT seek the medical attention that is readily available because of the hysteria whipped up by the media about COVID-19.
 

Truxx

LE
I don’t doubt that he (and his wider family) are intelligent, witty, engaging and affable. Being a good dinner party guest doesn’t make you a good leader of your country in arguably its greatest crisis science WW2.

A small example, If he had more effective intelligence and emotional intelligence, he would have got and listened to some honest feedback from someone prepared to speak truth unto power on his last 2 pre-recorded messages to the nation and then had them rescripted and re-recorded. They were both rambling and incoherent and utterly risible to the country at large. It’s not about soaring oratory, but it is about clear communication.

There’s 2 views here. One is that it’s all going swimmingly, a bunch of snowflakes and the woke are getting their knickers in a twist about a bad case of the ‘flu. There’s another view and that is that the government’s response is a shit show. The lunatics will say that its conspiracy, others will say that its cock up.

In some(?) months, the final tally will be in, public enquiries would have their initial reports in probably, and we will all have a much better idea of what has gone well and what has not. Happy to eat my virtual hat if BJ has done the business and better for the country short and long term if that is the case.
A lot of opinion masquerading as fact in there.

Do you work for the Guardian?
 
What stats are those - link ?
According to the ONS, the death rate for 2020 is currently running at around 45 - 50,000 higher than the 5 year average.

Of course we never had Covid over the past 5 years.

Until someone produces a breakdown of the cause these excess deaths, then the headline figure in itself does not mean that much.
 
The stats may not lie, but the way you presented them for comment... Rather loaded. Don't work for the BBC do you? It is NOT down to people having heart attacks being turned away from hospital as you implied. It is down to people with existing health conditions feeling a bit peaky and making the decision to NOT seek the medical attention that is readily available because of the hysteria whipped up by the media about COVID-19.
Rubbish. Cancer diagnosis and treatment has been severely impacted.
 

Trans-sane

LE
Book Reviewer
Rubbish. Cancer diagnosis and treatment has been severely impacted.
Article dated 21 Apr 2020. Things had been badly disrupted at that point yes. We were still in the process of standing up the Nightingales in several cities for the expected tidal wave of ICU patients that existing infrastructure simply could not cope with (and its slightly more than a royal we for me. When you see a photo of one of the beds in a nightingale hospital, the rack behind or at the side of the bed is festooned with white boxes with a digital display on the front. Those are infusion pumps and my company is probably the biggest supplier of those in Europe. My department was being given briefings in March about the possibility of going to 7-day manufacturing for the ASU compounded meds and nutrition that those pumps administer). Every clinician with ICU experience beyond a taster day was being given refresher courses to staff those wards. There was massive disruption.

The tidal wave of patients needing ICU did not materialise. Clinicians started getting shuffled back to their day jobs (on standby true) fairly early in May. It has been close to business-as-usual in most hospital trusts regarding working conditions for the last two weeks or so, and some for three. There is logistical disruption but patients are not being denied medical care.
 
Article dated 21 Apr 2020. Things had been badly disrupted at that point yes. We were still in the process of standing up the Nightingales in several cities for the expected tidal wave of ICU patients that existing infrastructure simply could not cope with (and its slightly more than a royal we for me. When you see a photo of one of the beds in a nightingale hospital, the rack behind or at the side of the bed is festooned with white boxes with a digital display on the front. Those are infusion pumps and my company is probably the biggest supplier of those in Europe. My department was being given briefings in March about the possibility of going to 7-day manufacturing for the ASU compounded meds and nutrition that those pumps administer). Every clinician with ICU experience beyond a taster day was being given refresher courses to staff those wards. There was massive disruption.

The tidal wave of patients needing ICU did not materialise. Clinicians started getting shuffled back to their day jobs (on standby true) fairly early in May. It has been close to business-as-usual in most hospital trusts regarding working conditions for the last two weeks or so, and some for three. There is logistical disruption but patients are not being denied medical care.
So a non-COVID excess death rate of 20000 since March 24th is the fault of patients?
 
I think I belong to “the country at large“.
Not a single person has told me they thought the two messages referred to were “utterly risible”, or anything resembling that.
Interesting - my experience completely opposite. The last broadcast - stay alert - widely lampooned and was unintelligible, this is from a man who also branded the campaign to secure alternative supply of ventilators as "Operation Last Gasp". Really? WTF? Disappointing to say the least.
 
So a non-COVID excess death rate of 20000 since March 24th is the fault of patients?
Bob

Unless you can provide a breakdown of cause of death for the 20000, you are whistling in the wind.

How many of these so called non - COVID / Excess deaths might actually be the real deal and be totally COVID related ?


Just to keep it on Topic. How will the Boris howlers take it if the above article is confirmed ?
 
Bob

Unless you can provide a breakdown of cause of death for the 20000, you are whistling in the wind.

How many of these so called non - COVID / Excess deaths might actually be the real deal and be totally COVID related ?


Just to keep it on Topic. How will the Boris howlers take it if the above article is confirmed ?
Equally many of the COVID related deaths could well not entirely be related to COVID.

This is the first time I’ve allowed myself to be sucked into the numbers and I only did so to question the modelling. I have no interest in arguing the stats; they are inevitably flawed.

My core point remains; the Government made decisions based on a flawed model presented to ministers as gospel. I don’t think that is debatable.
 

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