Benefits of High Speed Rail project exaggerated, secret report reveals

You claimed that HM Treasury apply a blanket 60% uplift on projects. They don’t. They set guidance criteria to departments for approvals. The document you have linked is a Department of Transport document, not a Treasury one. Treasury expects individual department procedures to be statistically valid; the probabalised analysis I described is exactly how Optimism Bias uplifts are calculated.

Optimism Bias loading you would know that the applied bias is based on statistical assessment of previous projects carried out in Britain. For High Speed Rail, the uplifts are based on a basket of 43 global projects since there are only two UK examples. None of that basket of projects is anything like as complex as H2S.

The Optimism Bias adjustment process is probabalised depending on which stage the project is at and on what the authorities appetite for project risk is. It is categorically not a blanket uplift as you claim. So without knowing which appetite curve the price is quoted on, you are comparing apples with oranges.

Moreover, the guidance notes the very issue that very issue; the one I drew attention to before. Namely that different stakeholders use different cost measures to suit their agenda and purpose.

Personally, I’d question the validity of applying the methodology Optimism Bias loading to mega projects. It’s fine for a £10M road or a new station, but it’s validity on a program like H2S is very questionable.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
Parliamentary committee to review the project this month. It could still face the chop
 
Parliamentary committee to review the project this month. It could still face the chop
Fingers X-ed. There will be dancing in the streets in some villages near me, in the unlikely event MPs do the right thing for once.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
Fingers X-ed. There will be dancing in the streets in some villages near me, in the unlikely event MPs do the right thing for once.
According to my source the representation to the committee has a minimum qual of CBE. This could mean it goes either way although the committee has a fair few lords who oppose it as members.
One assumes the CBE was awarded for achievements in self aggrandising and not for services to the nation. Sorry I meant for services to industry
 
Not really. It's a large infrastructure project.
It was always going to be late & vastly over budget.
Mebbe, but (big) if BoJo survives as PM, he's gonna need every penny he can find, simply to begin to spend on all his unbudgeted election promises.

That's what all this negative press is surfacing now. Ain't no accident nor coincidence.
 
Your point is?
Loads of old bodies get moved for construction projects
They're just making space for new ones to be buried in the time honoured manner.
 

Yeo_Man

War Hero
Why is Crossrail a debacle?
Interfacing has been a challenge at stations, however, the biggest debacle has been in management and oversight, especially when Boris Johnson was Mayor, compounded by Khan not picking up the brief and challenging the marketing and publicity.
I am intrigued by your comment, you don’t being at least two years late and hugely over budget is a debacle?

That’s if you believe the incumbent team can deliver!!!

The systemic problems with the overall work breakdown structure and lack of understanding of railways systems integration are down to cross rail management team of crossrail ltd, owned by TfL. Khan is responsible for TfL and he dropped the ball and continues to do so.

YM
 
I am intrigued by your comment, you don’t being at least two years late and hugely over budget is a debacle?

That’s if you believe the incumbent team can deliver!!!

The systemic problems with the overall work breakdown structure and lack of understanding of railways systems integration are down to cross rail management team of crossrail ltd, owned by TfL. Khan is responsible for TfL and he dropped the ball and continues to do so.

YM
Boris was the mayor of London from 2008 (just when Crossrail was launched) till 2016 and you blame Khan for dropping the ball when is in office for around 2 something years? What do you think he is? Superman? To turn everything around on such a big project? I don't blame either, but going by your logic Boris dropped the ball on this one and Khan didn't do the touchdown.
 
I am intrigued by your comment, you don’t being at least two years late and hugely over budget is a debacle?

That’s if you believe the incumbent team can deliver!!!

The systemic problems with the overall work breakdown structure and lack of understanding of railways systems integration are down to cross rail management team of crossrail ltd, owned by TfL. Khan is responsible for TfL and he dropped the ball and continues to do so.

YM
Boris got this wrong. Indeed, if procurement had taken the new trains with the train management system from the same company, perhaps that would have eliminated some of the problems.

The remumeration paid to executives was excessive, and did not reflect results but the vital political oversight was completely absent; Khan should also be put up against the wall mind.

Now, please compare the cost overrun compared to total budget with something like... Astute.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
I am intrigued by your comment, you don’t being at least two years late and hugely over budget is a debacle?

That’s if you believe the incumbent team can deliver!!!

The systemic problems with the overall work breakdown structure and lack of understanding of railways systems integration are down to cross rail management team of crossrail ltd, owned by TfL. Khan is responsible for TfL and he dropped the ball and continues to do so.

YM
Actually crossrail is a company with such auspicious members expert in delaying capital projects so as to milk the client for fees and extension payments usually because they have budged the job flooding it with labour to madk failures in quality and of meeting specifications in general.
Gentlemen I present Bechtel.
 
On the primary subject of this thread, my local paper reported on Friday that all work (bar that deemed too vital to timely delivery) that would result in destruction of ancient woodlands on the route of HS2 is to be suspended, by ministerial decree, until the inquiry into HS2 has concluded.

 

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