Belarus

As an aside, today the 15th of August is the anniversary of the defeat of the Red Army at the Battle of Warsaw. It is exactly 100 years ago that Pilsudski smashed the advancing Muscovite horde who were confident that their offensive would carry them into the heart of a war-weary Europe to support the revolutions of the German, French and Italian proletariats and extend the empire of the new Red Tsars.
The Miracle of the Vistula is an extraordinary story. A country less than two years old with an Army made up of former enemies who were fighting each other two years previously defeats the Red Army and prevents them from sweeping through Europe. I am always amazed at how few people outside of Poland know of this story.
 

hotel_california

LE
Book Reviewer
More on my previous post:

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said at a meeting in the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces that Russia is ready to provide "comprehensive assistance to ensure the security of the Republic of Belarus" at the request of Belarus. "When it comes to the military component, we have a treaty with the Russian Federation within the framework of the Union State and the CSTO. These are the moments that fit this treaty. That is why today I had a long, detailed conversation with the President of Russia about the situation. I must say, I was even a little surprised - absolutely devoted to what is happening. And we agreed with him that at the first request we will provide comprehensive assistance to ensure the security of the Republic of Belarus," Lukashenko said.

Source: Meduza.
 
OK, the scene is being set.
 
OK, the scene is being set.
Followed by a statement of the bleeding obvious! I wonder how much these guys were paid for their informed opinion?

'A Russian hybrid intervention into Belarus to support Belarussian president Lukashenko is likely imminent. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had a phone call on August 15 to discuss the situation in Belarus. Putin thanked Lukashenko for returning 32 detained Wagner personnel on August 14. The Kremlin’s readout of the call stated “all problems that have arisen will be resolved soon” and characterized the protests as “destructive forces” trying to harm the Union State.[1] A Kremlin intervention would likely consist of Russian forces in unmarked uniforms supporting crackdowns on protesters. The Kremlin has not previously characterized the protests in Belarus as destructive. Kremlin-linked media outlets reported neutrally and slightly sympathetically towards protests in Belarus as of August 14.

'The Union State is a supranational organization between Belarus and Russia. The Kremlin has been working to strengthen the Union State as a way to regain dominance over Belarus and integrate the Belarussian and Russian militaries. Success in that endeavor could allow Russian military forces to be stationed directly on the Polish border and in vital locations threatening NATO’s ability to defend the Baltic States.'


 
Air assault Bde to move to the Polish border. Looks like more ‘external actors’ rhetoric.

Interesting to see even people who admit to voting for Lukashenko think he lost the vote:

Some of the country’s biggest state-run industrial plants, the backbone of Lukashenko’s Soviet-style economic model, were hit by protests and walkouts this week.

He plans on Monday to go to the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant, whose workers have joined the protests.

In a video posted by TUT.BY media on Saturday, the head of the plant, Аlexey Rimashevskiy told workers that he voted for Lukashenko but “I accept that he lost them (the elections)” — unusually outspoken comments from an official at a state-run factory.
 
Belarus?
last bastion of properly big Soviet peaked caps.
soon to be once more part of the Rodina.

55AD9599-7F37-4E71-B7A1-731EF35BD14F.jpeg
 
Air assault Bde to move to the Polish border. Looks like more ‘external actors’ rhetoric.
...........
Inventing a non-existent threat to counter? Or removing his best units out of the way of the Russian fraternal assistance, "just in case".
 
Inventing a non-existent threat to counter? Or removing his best units out of the way of the Russian fraternal assistance, "just in case".
there ya go, Strait out of the standard Russian playbook.
Russian forces can now deploy to support fraternal Belarus brothers from evil EU/NATO intent to destabilise Belarus.

cue Soyuz nerushimy respublik svobodnykh!
cue EU/NATO impotence.
 
Inventing a non-existent threat to counter? Or removing his best units out of the way of the Russian fraternal assistance, "just in case".
Lukashenko may want some of the less "reliable" (from his perspective) units away from the capital and kept busy until the situation settles down a bit.

I'm not sure which way any particular brigade may lean and so whether the above consideration applies in this case, but it's something to keep in mind when looking at movements.
 
Inventing a non-existent threat to counter? Or removing his best units out of the way of the Russian fraternal assistance, "just in case".
If your best unit, which airborne often have the reputation for; is moved away on a pretext of ‘NATO aggression’, it can be re-rolled for public order training. Cut off from any outside interference or on current duties where protesters are holding hands and dropping their shields with riot police.

They can then be moved back in ‘fresh, trained and indoctrinated’, ready to deal with what are called ‘foreign interference’ protestors.
 

Zhopa

War Hero
Followed by a statement of the bleeding obvious! I wonder how much these guys were paid for their informed opinion?
ISW are clowns. On any subject they touch but especially on Russia. That is all.
 

Zhopa

War Hero
Artyom Shraibman, who knows his stuff, has come up with "Ten Reasons Why Russia Won't Invade Belarus". They are all perfectly sensible, but a little optimistic because they depend on Russia being both competent and following the same train of logic as Artyom has.


It's in Russian, but the gist is (a) unnecessary (b) won't go well.

(Edited to add - I see the Telegram link has imported the whole text - so I probably didn't need to tell you it was in Russian...)
 
Artyom Shraibman, who knows his stuff, has come up with "Ten Reasons Why Russia Won't Invade Belarus". They are all perfectly sensible, but a little optimistic because they depend on Russia being both competent and following the same train of logic as Artyom has.


It's in Russian, but the gist is (a) unnecessary (b) won't go well.

(Edited to add - I see the Telegram link has imported the whole text - so I probably didn't need to tell you it was in Russian...)
Thanks, interesting reading albeit Google translate:

10 REASONS WHY THERE WILL NOT BE AN INVASION OF RUSSIA

Lukashenko said that he would receive from Moscow “at our very first request, comprehensive assistance to ensure the security of the Republic of Belarus,” and mentioned the CSTO in this regard. And now, in detail, why I don't believe in this horror story.

Russia does not save the falling regimes with troops. To take out the leader - yes, to save the regime, which has no support base left - no.

The only exception is Syria, but there was already a civil war there, and Russian troops did not occupy the territory, they mainly worked through air strikes. Whom do we bomb? Workshops MTZ and Belaz? Or the striking Belteleradiocompany?

Belarusians do not want external intervention and do not want to be part of Russia. Here is the most recent poll of the Academy of Sciences: for joining the Russian Federation - less than 7%. For a closer union - less than 25%. The rest are for the friendship of independent countries. Belarus is not Crimea, which type of asked him to save from the Nazis. There will be no roses.

A people who does not ask to save him will have to be held back with great force. The occupation troops are tens of thousands of people. And if partisanship begins, which is almost inevitable in this case and on such a social upsurge - hundreds of thousands. And thousands of victims. There is simply no more gentle way.

Such an intervention is the loss of the Belarusian people even longer than the Ukrainian one. A people who are friendly to Russia today. According to polls by Vardomatsky's laboratory, more than 70% support the current format of relations - without borders and customs, only 5-7% - for breaking ties.

The invasion does not solve the problem of internal stability either. Workers will not return to factories, there will be a collapse of the banking system, tens of billions will have to be injected for humanitarian needs. And these are five Crimea by population. Recall that the Russian economy has not yet recovered itself after the coronavirus.

The protesters do not come up with anti-Russian or pro-Western slogans. There is no such agenda at all. The Kremlin is not blind and sees this. Russia has accepted the results of the same unrelated revolutions in Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.

Moscow is always reorienting itself to the winning side. Especially realizing that this side is no more hostile than the government taking Russian citizens as hostages for the elections.

Read the Kremlin's statement after your morning conversation with Lukashenko. There is a lot about the friendship of peoples and enemies, but not a word about the support of the current Belarusian president. The Kremlin has taken a wait-and-see attitude.

For lawyers. The CSTO Charter does not provide for military assistance without external aggression (an armed attack threatening security, stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty) on a member state. Lukashenka blamed the Russians for this throughout the campaign, and now he is trying to portray a threat from the West.

But it is even difficult to come up with it in this situation. According to rumors, high-ranking Russians and Europeans are already calling up and laughing at these stories. A hybrid attack from the Telegram channel NEXTA is not spelled out in the CSTO charter.

P.S. In order to prevent such a scenario in the future, in the event of a victory, the transitional Belarusian authorities should not immediately touch Soviet monuments, change symbols or cancel the state status of the Russian language in euphoria. But given that there will be a lot of things to do, and according to all available polls, these measures in Belarus are not supported by the majority, I see no reason to think that the transitional government will go crazy and start doing this at all. Everything has its time.
 
I doubt that many here ever visited Belarus while I was in Minsk the last year and previously travelled in the country by car. I propose my personal point of view.
First of all Belarus is a Russian speaking country. It is a very important detail. There is no one Belorussian school (schools where working language is Belorussian). Belorussian along with Russian is a state language but even the head of state - mr.Lukashenko doesn't speak it. Several years ago a lass from Belarus won a competition in Moscow for the best pupil in knowledge of Russian.
There is more than 2 decades long project of unification of Russia and Belarus. It is logical from economical and many other points of view but in my opinion majority of Belarussians don't wish to live under Putin's dictatorship, especially the young generation. At the same time it is not right to overestimate pro-Western aspirations in Belarus. Example of Ukraine shows that hardly Belarus will receive economical carrots from the EU anytime soon. Also nearby Lithuania and Latvia suffer from economical problems and fast depopulation despite subsidies from the EU. Pro-Western and pro-EU sentiments are popular among intellectuals and in sound Polish minority only. Many understand that break of ties with Russia means economical catastrophe.
Pres.Lukashenko is not just a primitive banana state style dictator and sufficiently popular in countryside. For many Belorussian farmers he is 'one of us' unlike intellectuals from Minsk. Btw, today (16 August) mr.Lukashenko plans to stage huge meeting in his support in the capital. I suppose that tens thousand of villagers will be transported to Minsk to demonstrate opposition that number of Lukashenko's supporters is much bigger. If Belorussian authorities will be able to stage indeed a massive meeting then it would be a serious blow for the opposition.
I believe that the opposition made a serious mistake to unleash namely violent protests (not strictly peaceful ones). Molotov cocktails, improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were used against the Police the first day. The only victim of the riots died because his IED exploded in his hand.
Relations between Lukashenko and Putin are uneasy. Both need each other and hate each other. It is not so rare situation in politics.
Has mr.Lukashenko won the elections or lost them? Previously (after previous elections) even opposition recognised that while final numbers likely were inflated, he really had the majority of votes. Now in my opinion, in the capital and big cities Lukashenko lost the elections but as to the whole country then it is not so obvious.
During 7 years a man from Belarus worked in our firm in Moscow as a head of sales department. He was born in countryside and preserved slight Belarussian accent (that it very rare thing because most Belorussians speak absolutely spotless Russian). He didn't like Lukashenko but according to his estimates in countryside, in small towns his rating is 80% or higher. In the capital and other big cities it was about 50% or so.
It is possible that Lukashenko got the majority but not absolute, less than 50%. And of course much less than official 80%.
How it will end in the short term? It looks that Lukashenko will remain at power. The protests, riots organisers will be jailed of will have to flee from Belarus. There, abroad the opposition leaders will be forgotten soon. The leader of Belorussian People's Front - Zenon Pozdnyak fled from Belarus 20 years ago and is completely forgotten despite his permanent activity.
 
Looks like some Russians will be going to Minsk for their summer vacation.

'Vladimir Putin has offered to help ensure Belarus's security, according to its president Alexander Lukashenko, as pressure builds on the strongman leader and opposition protesters prepare for a show of force Sunday.

'Thousands demonstrated in the capital Minsk Saturday after main election challenger Svetlana Tikhanovskaya asked supporters to rally over the weekend and keep alive a movement that poses the biggest challenge to Lukashenko's hold over the ex-Soviet country.'


 
I doubt that many here ever visited Belarus while I was in Minsk the last year and previously travelled in the country by car. I propose my personal point of view.
First of all Belarus is a Russian speaking country. It is a very important detail. There is no one Belorussian school (schools where working language is Belorussian). Belorussian along with Russian is a state language but even the head of state - mr.Lukashenko doesn't speak it. Several years ago a lass from Belarus won a competition in Moscow for the best pupil in knowledge of Russian.
There is more than 2 decades long project of unification of Russia and Belarus. It is logical from economical and many other points of view but in my opinion majority of Belarussians don't wish to live under Putin's dictatorship, especially the young generation. At the same time it is not right to overestimate pro-Western aspirations in Belarus. Example of Ukraine shows that hardly Belarus will receive economical carrots from the EU anytime soon. Also nearby Lithuania and Latvia suffer from economical problems and fast depopulation despite subsidies from the EU. Pro-Western and pro-EU sentiments are popular among intellectuals and in sound Polish minority only. Many understand that break of ties with Russia means economical catastrophe.
Pres.Lukashenko is not just a primitive banana state style dictator and sufficiently popular in countryside. For many Belorussian farmers he is 'one of us' unlike intellectuals from Minsk. Btw, today (16 August) mr.Lukashenko plans to stage huge meeting in his support in the capital. I suppose that tens thousand of villagers will be transported to Minsk to demonstrate opposition that number of Lukashenko's supporters is much bigger. If Belorussian authorities will be able to stage indeed a massive meeting then it would be a serious blow for the opposition.
I believe that the opposition made a serious mistake to unleash namely violent protests (not strictly peaceful ones). Molotov cocktails, improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were used against the Police the first day. The only victim of the riots died because his IED exploded in his hand.
Relations between Lukashenko and Putin are uneasy. Both need each other and hate each other. It is not so rare situation in politics.
Has mr.Lukashenko won the elections or lost them? Previously (after previous elections) even opposition recognised that while final numbers likely were inflated, he really had the majority of votes. Now in my opinion, in the capital and big cities Lukashenko lost the elections but as to the whole country then it is not so obvious.
During 7 years a man from Belarus worked in our firm in Moscow as a head of sales department. He was born in countryside and preserved slight Belarussian accent (that it very rare thing because most Belorussians speak absolutely spotless Russian). He didn't like Lukashenko but according to his estimates in countryside, in small towns his rating is 80% or higher. In the capital and other big cities it was about 50% or so.
It is possible that Lukashenko got the majority but not absolute, less than 50%. And of course much less than official 80%.
How it will end in the short term? It looks that Lukashenko will remain at power. The protests, riots organisers will be jailed of will have to flee from Belarus. There, abroad the opposition leaders will be forgotten soon. The leader of Belorussian People's Front - Zenon Pozdnyak fled from Belarus 20 years ago and is completely forgotten despite his permanent activity.
Even the government has withdrawn the allegation that the rioter was holding an explosive device which went off!
 
Even the government has withdrawn the allegation that the rioter was holding an explosive device which went off!
And every piece of 'evidence' with a sample size of n=1

I can only assume the algorithm which generated his A-level results was stolen from our Department of Education.
 

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