Belarus

The problem here is that after what happenned in Ukraine, Moscow is very unlikely to let that happen and the leaders of the internal security forces are much more probably in contact with their opposite numbers to the East rather than looking at what the Belarusian population wants.

The problem for the Kremlin is that the Ukrainian people set a major precedent by overwhelmingly rejecting any notion of subservience to Moscow. If the Belarus people were to follow suit then there is another example for the Russian population to emulate and finally get rid of the "Muscovite Mindset" that has so thoroughly muzzled the peoples of all the Russias.

This is the real fear that drives the Kremlin to wage war against Ukraine and to support the Lukashenko dictatorship in Belarus, short of outright annexation (in the form of a Union of course) once Lukashenko's position becomes untenable.

The problem for Europe (and Poland in particular) is how to prevent that from happening and achieve a truly free Belarusian State.
What makes you think that a replacement government wouldn't be equally as bad, just in a different way?
 
What makes you think that a replacement government wouldn't be equally as bad, just in a different way?
You are correct. There is a possibility of regression, as happened with the second revolution (essentially a Bolshevik coup d'etat) of 1917 and with what happenned post 1991 when although the coup failed, the Siloviki clawed back the authoritarian state. However there has been a slight progressive trend towards a more open society among the Russian people which has accelerated somewhat in the digital age. But I live in hope that the Muscovite Mindset will be finally discarded and the Russian peoples will fully rejoin the European family of nations.
 
When such regimes fail it's a bit like a dam burst, very sudden and very spectacular, eg East Germany and Romania. For the elite it's like being trapped in their own home made prison, they don't want to be there at the very end but they can't get out as there's nowhere to go. Although I do wonder how welcome Lukashenko would be in Moscow and for how long.
Not very and not for long would be my bet.
 
You are correct. There is a possibility of regression, as happened with the second revolution (essentially a Bolshevik coup d'etat) of 1917 and with what happenned post 1991 when although the coup failed, the Siloviki clawed back the authoritarian state. However there has been a slight progressive trend towards a more open society among the Russian people which has accelerated somewhat in the digital age. But I live in hope that the Muscovite Mindset will be finally discarded and the Russian peoples will fully rejoin the European family of nations.
Russia are too big and too powerful to take a back seat to Germany or France in "the European family of nations". If the Russians are to develop a closer working relationship with EU Europe, then Berlin and Paris would have to get used to the notion of direction coming from Moscow as frequently as from Berlin or Paris, and I don't think the latter two are ready to accept that.
 
Russia are too big and too powerful to take a back seat to Germany or France in "the European family of nations". If the Russians are to develop a closer working relationship with EU Europe, then Berlin and Paris would have to get used to the notion of direction coming from Moscow as frequently as from Berlin or Paris, and I don't think the latter two are ready to accept that.
My answer to that is that the apparent Russian monolith is a colonial construct of Muscovy. There are many Russian peoples and were the "Muscovite Mindset" to disintegrate, then we would be more likely to see a loosely (con)federated collection of Russias as there used to be prior to the Muscovite expansion.

In addition if one looks at all the statistics, the only way that the current Russia is too big or too powerful is that it covers a large surface area (a result of colonial expansion) and that it possesses a huge nuclear arsenal as well as spending a large proportion of its GDP on its armed forces and organs of internal repression and external espionage and subversion. These are throwbacks to the "Muscovite Mindset".

As and when the Russias truly change, they will change on an unprecedented scale. The issues then will be to welcome Russia into the European fold, ensure that Russian nukes are properly accounted for and to prevent an immoderate Chinese expansion into the current Russian Far East. I seriously doubt that anything could be done to prevent a Chinese reabsorbtion of territories that historically came under the suzerainity or protection of Beijing.
 
Last edited:
What makes you think that a replacement government wouldn't be equally as bad, just in a different way?
It could well be . . . but, we are working on the presumption (I think !), that it will have been elected after free and fair elections . . . after which, if the electorate have voluntarily chosen to join the select group of pariah states, it is something we (the civilised part of the World), will have to deal with as appropriate.
 
It could well be . . . but, we are working on the presumption (I think !), that it will have been elected after free and fair elections . . . after which, if the electorate have voluntarily chosen to join the select group of pariah states, it is something we (the civilised part of the World), will have to deal with as appropriate.
The only election that "we" in the West would accept as being "free and fair" is one that produced the result we wanted.
 
My answer to that is that the apparent Russian monolith is a colonial construct of Muscovy. There are many Russian peoples and were the "Muscovite Mindset" to disintegrate, then we would be more likely to see a loosely (con)federated collection of Russias as there used to be prior to the Muscovite expansion.

In addition if one looks at all the statistics, the only way that the current Russia is too big or too powerful is that it covers a large surface area (a result of colonial expansion) and that it possesses a huge nuclear arsenal as well as spending a large proportion of its GDP on its armed forces and organs of internal repression and external espionage and subversion. These are throwbacks to the "Muscovite Mindset".

As and when the Russias truly change, they will change on an unprecedented scale. The issues then will be to welcome Russia into the European fold, ensure that Russian nukes are properly accounted for and to prevent an immoderate Chinese expansion into the current Russian Far East. I seriously doubt that anything could be done to prevent a Chinese reabsorbtion of territories that historically came under the suzerainity or protection of Beijing.
So your plan for Russia is to somehow split it up into multiple minor states that each can be individually dictated to by Berlin and Paris. Germany The EU and Japan Beijing then agree on a carve up of territory into colonial spheres of influence.

This sounds vaguely familiar. Good luck with that one.
 
The only election that "we" in the West would accept as being "free and fair" is one that produced the result we wanted.
I SPECIFICALLY SAID . . .

"if they chose, voted, to become a pariah state . . . " !!
 
"if they chose, voted, to become a pariah state . . . "
...we wouldn't accept it was a fair and free election, because obviously our desired outcome is the choice of all right-thinking people and anything else is undemocratic.
 
So your plan for Russia is to somehow split it up into multiple minor states that each can be individually dictated to by Berlin and Paris. Germany The EU and Japan Beijing then agree on a carve up of territory into colonial spheres of influence.

This sounds vaguely familiar. Good luck with that one.
For what I stated - it's not my plan. It's what I believe will happen should when Muscovite political authority loses its grip.

And you are inferring things which I did not mention nor intend. Spheres of influence is distinctly Muscovite thinking.

The Muscovite Empire (for that is essentially what we know as Russia) itself is a colonial project which will disintegrate once enough of its peoples finally realise that they are being lied to and exploited by the Kremlin. The various emerging Russian states should be welcomed as equals by the nations of Europe and given support to establish themselves and orient themselves firmly towards the West just as the various principalities of Ky'ivan Rus once were. The process has started wih Ukraine and will hopefully continue.

China should be discouraged from expanding into former Russian territories, but as I said it will be unlikely that anyone could do much to prevent Beijing from reclaiming territories that Moscow took from it over the course of the past few hundred years.
 
Last edited:
...we wouldn't accept it was a fair and free election, because obviously our desired outcome is the choice of all right-thinking people and anything else is undemocratic.
How, ........ Chinese. ;)
 
Touche, but it is Moscow that carps on about these days.
I forgot how sanguine the US was about PRC investment in Latin America and the Caribbean.
 
I forgot how sanguine the US was about PRC investment in Latin America and the Caribbean.
But it's not annexing bits of Mexico any more ...............

Anyway, gazing into my crystal ball again, there's a good chance that the US becomes even more disunited and potential for a civil war and break-up there too. Current trends show extreme divisions being exacerbated and stirred by disinformation.
 
But it's not annexing bits of Mexico any more ...............

Anyway, gazing into my crystal ball again, there's a good chance that the US becomes even more disunited and potential for a civil war and break-up there too. Current trends show extreme divisions being exacerbated and stirred by disinformation.
You might want to get that crystal ball repaired and also stop listening to people like Steamy. The Americans may be noisy but there's no sign of any of them breaking up in the near future.
 
You might want to get that crystal ball repaired and also stop listening to people like Steamy. The Americans may be noisy but there's no sign of any of them breaking up in the near future.
Who knows really, but watching current trends, the country is far more disunited and fractious than at any time since the Civil War and that has led me to speculate.

Who's Steamy anyway?

(Edited for mong typo and twattish autocorrect).
 
Last edited:

Latest Threads

Top