Belarus

[PhotEx]

Apart from the 300,000 + ethnic Poles living in Belarus card. Don't think Vlad wants to play that card game.

Poland will not invade deep into Belarus giving Vlad a reason to smash mouth them.
The Poles, or anything else in Belarus are an irrelevance to the Kremlins machinations.

 

[Yokel]

Photex - why do you advocate belliicosity towards China and Xi, but seem to advocate appeasement of Putin and his regime of thugs? You do realise Russia borders NATO territory and the ocean which we are in, has increased air and naval activity in the Atlantic, and exercises with Chinese and Iranian allies?

 

[FARMBOY]

Poland will not invade deep into Belarus giving Vlad a reason to smash mouth them.
The Poles, or anything else in Belarus are an irrelevance to the Kremlins machinations.

With respect I don't think you understand the Polish mentality. No invasions needed just a quagmire. You must also understand that "smash mouth" is part of our history....and we are still here. Russia doesn't want or can even sustain another quagmire. Donbas has shown them that. How are they going to get out of that?

 

[LeoRoverman]

top tip: don’t fight battles you cannot win.
Vlad holds all the cards in Belarus.

mind games again- see that's what happened when we failed to take on Germany in 36.
Premis 1, he holds all the cards- therefore he can't lose.
Premis 2 the EU needs his Oil and gas- ergo he holds all the cards.
Premis 3 He knows you think like that ergo 1 and 2 are his principle defence.
Now how would I think.
(1)covid caused by the Chinese has cost the world economy 10% give or take
Vlad thinks we will cut our cloth according to what we can afford. After all we always do.
(2) Germany and France are onside with Vlad because they both want Russia in the EU. Macron has certainly intimated that.
(3) France doesn't want Nato run from America it wants OTAN run from Paris Brussels.
(4) In the push to create fossil free energy, it weakens Russia's hand.
Ergo Russia must make it's next move within the next ten years or so when the value of natural resources starts dwindling.
How would I fight?
Doirty dirty in the courts, total sequestration of Russian Assets in the UK/US including offshore and we all know how the Russians like using British courts cos of the flexibendy ness of the system- all you need is a boomerang, just ask our Tone.
Just pop my cheque in the post.

 

[RCT(V)]

The international community is not among them. We dropped bombs to uphold their right, remember?

That we dropped bombs, does NOT mean that we should have dropped bombs !! .

(Kosovo) . . . set a precedent over the right to self-determination and the duty of the international community to uphold that right.

No matter how inconvenient that might be today.

If the intention is not to repeat mistakes, we have to first recognise what is/was a mistake .

 

[RCT(V)]

The Crimean vote was monitored by at least three Western organisations with no obvious bias towards Moscow and none of them reported any irregularities significant enough to undermine the outcome. The KLA didn't even take a vote but simply launched into an armed campaign while imposing death sentences on any moderates.

Why do we support one but not the other?

Simples . . . . OIL . . . USA . . . . pipelines . . . . Camp Bondsteel . . . . .

Camp Bondsteel - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[RCT(V)]

For two years I worked for EU nationals that only spoke Russian

Only two years . . . . it must have been traumatic for you . . . clearly the counselling is not helping as much as would have been hoped . . . .

 

[PhotEx]

mind games again- see that's what happened when we failed to take on Germany in 36.
Premis 1, he holds all the cards- therefore he can't lose.
Premis 2 the EU needs his Oil and gas- ergo he holds all the cards.
Premis 3 He knows you think like that ergo 1 and 2 are his principle defence.
Now how would I think.
(1)covid caused by the Chinese has cost the world economy 10% give or take
Vlad thinks we will cut our cloth according to what we can afford. After all we always do.
(2) Germany and France are onside with Vlad because they both want Russia in the EU. Macron has certainly intimated that.
(3) France doesn't want Nato run from America it wants OTAN run from Paris Brussels.
(4) In the push to create fossil free energy, it weakens Russia's hand.
Ergo Russia must make it's next move within the next ten years or so when the value of natural resources starts dwindling.
How would I fight?
Doirty dirty in the courts, total sequestration of Russian Assets in the UK/US including offshore and we all know how the Russians like using British courts cos of the flexibendy ness of the system- all you need is a boomerang, just ask our Tone.
Just pop my cheque in the post.

We won’t do Jaques, or merde.
Putin will simply use military force against EU interests in the East.
that’s the EU with lots of yap, but no bite.

 

[RCT(V)]

We won’t do Jaques, or merde.
Putin will simply use military force against EU interests in the East.
that’s the EU with lots of yap, but no bite.

Some members - the prominent members - of the EU, are certainly an embarrassment, inconvenience, to NATO .

 

[PhotEx]

Some members - the prominent members - of the EU, are certainly an embarrassment, inconvenience, to NATO .

Germany can't make its mind up wether it wants to be Moscow or Beijings pet dachshund.

 

[LeoRoverman]

We won’t do Jaques, or merde.
Putin will simply use military force against EU interests in the East.
that’s the EU with lots of yap, but no bite.

He'll have to be careful, there's a synergy between the EU and Russia over Iran

 

[Zemlyak]

Self determination in action. Now why don't we extend the same rights to the Russians who don't want their current ancestral lands to be part of Ukraine?

Ancestral lands?

Yes, that was one of the reasons used.

 

[Condottiere]

Ancestral lands?

Yes, that was one of the reasons used.

Moscow denied my family their ancestral lands. I’m not trying to claim them back.

 

[smartascarrots]

Moscow denied my family their ancestral lands. I’m not trying to claim them back.

You're not currently living on them. There's a difference.

 

[smartascarrots]

Yes, that was one of the reasons used.

A reason that distinguishes very clearly between peoples who've lived in an area for centuries and wish to choose their future for themselves; and recent windblows trying to upset someone else's apple cart.

 

[FARMBOY]

You're not currently living on them. There's a difference.

But in most countries where the rule of law exists at least @Condottiere would be able to claim the land his family owned with appropriate evidence. Not living on the land should not prevent making a claim to it with supporting historical deeds etc.

 

[FARMBOY]

A reason that distinguishes very clearly between peoples who've lived in an area for centuries and wish to choose their future for themselves; and recent windblows trying to upset someone else's apple cart.

Who are the recent "windblows" in question?

 

[smartascarrots]

But in most countries where the rule of law exists at least @Condottiere would be able to claim the land his family owned with appropriate evidence. Not living on the land should not prevent making a claim to it with supporting historical deeds etc.

It wouldn't on its own grant him a right to a say in how the country should be governed. Residency usually does.

Who are the recent "windblows" in question?

Not the ethnic-Russian population of the Crimea, at any rate.

 

[FARMBOY]

It wouldn't on its own grant him a right to a say in how the country should be governed. Residency usually does.


Not the ethnic-Russian population of the Crimea, at any rate.

I read what @Condottiere said to be a reference to his own family having their own land confiscated from them rather than a wider geopolitical point around how a "country should be governed" No doubt @Condottiere can elaborate (if he wishes to)

To the Crimean Tatars I'm sure the ethnic Russians must seem like "windblows" - it all depends when you start the clock.

 

[smartascarrots]

To the Crimean Tatars I'm sure the ethnic Russians must seem like "windblows" - it all depends when you start the clock.

Indeed. The ethnic Ukrainians too, for that matter.

Neither make up a majority of those currently living in the Crimea, though.