beginning of the end? Ukrainian elections.

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Domovoy, Jan 16, 2010.

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  1. Something that will soon change the current map of Europe is about to begin in Ukraine: presidential elections.

    Ukraine has only three POLITICAL parties: communist, socialist and Russian unity, -- all too poor or disorganised to even entertain a hope. The three "parties" that will go to war over victory: Our Ukraine in all its guises (Yuschenko), BUT (Timoshenko) and Party of Regions (Yanukovich), -- are nothing more than political facades for three major mafia clans -- all after an absolute power in an impoverished country where the last pieces of land, property and natural resources are to be taken before the country's desintegration. It's their last chance and they know it.

    Yuschenko (with 3% popularity) is relying on the help of US (perhaps through Georgia) and is competing with Timoshenko in Western Ukraine; both are upping anti-Russian rhetoric popular with the locals. In the East and South Timoshenko is competing with Yanukovich; both are making half-promises of easing up anti-Russian and toning down neo-nazist policies. Although Yuschenko remains the best US puppet it can have at the top of Ukrainian tree, it is in the US interests to preserve "orange" ideas by letting Yanukovich win; while it is in Russia's interests to allow Ukrainian Titanic to sink under the "orange" flag.

    The most popular with the electorate slogan is: "Elections: detect a difference between varieties of sh*t."

    Many will boycott the elections, many more will vote not "for" a particular candidate, but "against" the others.

    In such circumstances "elections" are promising to be brutal. Few days ago Ukraine refused registration of 3000 Georgian observers on the grounds that only 130 of them had requireed minimum education or experience; the rest didn't list their jobs or profession, many submitted forged documents. Yesterday and the day before Timoshenko party was used to charter two planes that flew 1000 of them into Donetsk (East Ukraine) "on private business". All 25-45 males; none wished to answer questions, some were pushing corespondents and damaging their equipment.
    Interestingly, it became known that these Georgians were invited by Yuschenko; also that arriving Georgians are employed by Georgian police and special purpose regiments.

    Among the Georgians who landed in Crimea, the locals spotted few wanted for murder of Russian families in Ossetia

    (Was this the reason why Saakashvili was spare after 888 war? To give Yuschenko a helping hand?)

    Anyway, Crimeans are expecting provocations from allied to Yuschenko neo-nazy party "Freedom" from Western Ukraine, that "tested waters" in the region only few days ago

    But no matter who will be declared the next president, the elections will only deepen the chasm within the society along the lines of unity with Russia, ideological and religious issues.

    Against this backdrop, the two EU jackals: Rumania and Poland, -- are stirring up in anticipation of possible spoils. Member of the European Parliament from Rumania Corneliu Vadim Tudor: "Ukraine - is an artificial state... Ukraine holds the Romanian territory - I'm talking about Northern Bukovina. ... Yushchenko is an American agent of phony "Orange Revolution."
    Poland is already welcoming back Galitchina

    Ukraine is entering its final stage of existence, with Russia, US, EU, Romania and Poland having interests in the future of the parts of thae country...
  2. Tell you what we'll send you Cyclopes +co free of charge,that'll really foul things up for you,but solve one of our problems. We have a few more idiot parties(Limp Dems,S.N.P.,D.U.P.,Sinn Fien,who could also add a bit of interest to your problems,all free of charge.
  3. Impoverished? I know that they took a bit of a beating in the recent economic crisis but a quick search of the World Bank's 2008 figures has them with a GDP of 180,355 (millions of USD) placing them at number 43 in the world and as a middle-income state. Unless the country went into absolute economic meltdown and I missed it, I hardly think it counts as impoverished.
  4. Ukraine was regarded as a geopolitical battlefield by Washington. But this battle was lost. What is the cause?

    Immortal Clinton's "It's economy, stupid" springs in mind. Washington made stakes on economically lame horses. As a result now Washington hasn't any chanses to influence political processes in Ukraine. Though, why it does need it? It doesn't. Washington has lost its interest to Ukraine as the Fox lost interest to The grapes.

    But there was not domino effect, there were no new 'colour revolutions'

    As for the current elections then ironically it doesn't matter who will be the president. He (she) will be not 100% West oriented.
  5. Thankfully, of course, in Russia the elections are a meaningless farce with only one contender of any significance, and a ruling party consisting solely of apparatchiks. No room for conflict there, then.
  6. If Kiev votes the wrong way, Vlad will change things in 2012.
  7. Both these sentences show a misunderstanding about the situation. You don't win or lose in the 'for all time' sense in a democracy: someone gets elected, and the only thing you can be sure of is that at some point someone else will be elected on a different platform. It the same way, nothing that is 100% anything in a democracy is sustainable. Putin's goal in 2004 was to replicate the Russian model in the Ukraine: he failed. Now he's stuck with a constant political see-saw whose comparativly balanced and unpredicatble nature doesn't fit into his view of how the world should be. The important thing about this election is that it is taking place in an open environment where the popular press is no longer the plaything of the government as is the case in Russia, and has the backing of a decent civil society infrastructue. Whoever wins would have a nightmare on their hands turning the clock back on that. Most telling of all however is one key point: we don't know for certain who is going to win. As for who Ukrainians votes for, it is their country and their choice. Odds are however that whoever wins will for some reason be out on their arrse in four years. If you can tell me truthfully that Putin won't still be in the Kremlin at that time, then you might also be interested in one of the baby unicorns I'm selling.
  8. Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics :D
  9. I have talked with a number of Russians over the last decade (50+). I met only one who did not support Putin. The one who didn't support Putin voted for the Communists. Gordon Brown (or any Western European politician) would be happy to have such widespread support.
  10. Ukraine has sought substantial help from the IMF to keep their economy afloat in the form of US$17 billion worth of loans. The IMF has been unwilling to release all of this as the government has not enacted the fiscal policies demanded by the IMF.

    When considering their wealth, it is worth noting that whilst the politicians and a handful of businessmen are extremely wealthy, the rest of the population have salaries averaging about US$250 per month. When she was 36, the current prime minister (Julia Tymeshenko) controlled the entire wholesale gas market in Ukraine and reputedly had a personal worth of US$3.8 billion.
  11. ...or maybe you don't understand my point. 5 years ago Washington spent tens millions of dollars to support pro-Western political forces during namely presidential elections in Ukraine. Washington's polit-technologists funded so called 'orange revolution'. It looked as Washington won but eventually it turned into absolute defeat. Now pro-Western political forces haven't any visible support.

    There were 3 preisdential elections in Ukraine before 2004 and all were relatively fair.

    It is not quite right. Mr.Yanukovich was and is 'pro-Ukrainian' politician who represents interests of powerfull tycoons, financial and economical elites. He was simply better than openly pro-American mr.Yushchenko, no more.

    Russian model is possible if there is a steady economical growth, growth of living standards. It gives ability to ruling elites to win elections using brainwashing and polit-technologies. It can not last forever.

    There is a wrong stereotype that there was no democracy in Ukraine before the 'Orange revolution'. All political forces had access to TV, to radio and newspapers.

    By contrast in Russia we see only one more or less independent TV-channel, one more or less independent Radio and some independent newspapers (though not very popular). Other mass media are under effective control of ruling elites. But suppose that Russian elites form two groups, each with own party, TV-channels, newspapers and so on. From fromal point of view Russia would have full scale Western type democracy but really it would not matter. The nature of Putin's regime would remain unchanged.
  12. Ah! Domovoy is back!! :D :boogie: :D :dance:

    I hope you are being overly, and unnecessarily, pessimistic.

    In the wider geo-political scheme of things, it is in no-one’s interest to encourage civil unrest within Ukraine, or to instigate political upheaval in an area on the borders of the EU and NATO (and/or CIS).

    You can be assured that if they forget their new “stations-in-life”, then the “ . . . two EU jackals: Rumania and Poland” will be invited for an “interview without coffee”.

    If the EU and NATO are now luke-warm about ambracing Ukraine (and Georgia) as a unified and cohesive whole - they certainly will not be amenable to absorbing bits of Ukraine piecemeal.

    I was getting quite exicted about this:

    and, wondering if the UK could look forward to such voluble electioneering - when I realised there is not even a bus-full of supporters on either side! Lots of flags and noise, but the demonstrators were/are outnumbered by the security forces (never mind the media and hapless shoppers).

    Somewhat different are these fellas . . . They look quite “useful”. Can you supply their “contact details” Domovoy?

    Welcome back . . . it has been quiet around here!
  13. I've no doubt they did, but that was only done in the face of a clearly rigged vote, unless you are claiming that (a).The re-run was rigged, or (b) a large proportion of Ukrainian voters changed their minds when they saw the protests. There is a big difference between changing attitudes and simply allowing them to be expressed. Beyond that, I think now we are seeing very little support for and particular geopolitical direction. I suspect things will swing in one direct or the other again as soon as the Ukraine's economy turns the corner. If you want to see real under the table politics by the west, KGB, look at the awarding of the 2012 European Cup finals. Whoever thought that one up to convince the Ukraine that they had a European (the co-host in EU member Poland, no less. Which the Ukrainians will not be able to visit easly because they aren't in the EU. And there would only be one way around that :D ) as opposed to Eurasian destiny was very clever.

    All won by the same people at a time when Russia was on its arrse and in no position to stick its nose in, which wasn't the case in 2004. The 2004 election was very much 'for keeps' I suspect, and I think that thought is what motivated the protestors. And relatively is a very, er, relative term.

    It very much depends on your angle. He was 'better', but I think he would have been prefered by Russia to anyone.

    That is certainly the historical trend, and given that I think (as I suspect like you) that all this talk about 'authoritarian capitalism' taking over the world is a bit of a bust, I'd like to agree. As a nation though Russians do have a nasty habbit of only kicking off when weak leadership screws them over, as in 1917, 1991 and 2000. I can't see that happening with Putin.

    If that was true to the extent it would need to be to make things fair, they wouldn't have even tried to rig the second round on the scale they did.

    146 million people with maybe one TV channel and maybe one radio station pretty much tells the whole story. Having more than one elite group represented in the media works because each will continually seek to undermine the other, and providing the viewer has a handful of brain-cells, he or she will be able to find the truth in what they are told. The news in mono leaves no scope for that.
  14. Nah! End of the beginning. In fact not even that either. Each of the 'serious' candidates is a repackaging of what went before. Until that generation has finally departed, the 'beginning' will continue.

    PS. More chance that Russia will try to dismember Ukraine than the US. But let's not let reality get in the way of a good anti-US/west wibble.
  15. Washington spent money before voting itself. On that stage it was impossible to find that voting was rigged. There was about 50/50 situation. During the first tour the main contenders got: Yanukovitch 39.3%, Yushchenko 39.9%. Of course staged 'Orange revolution' influenced those who had to decide. Many soon had found that they were fooled.

    There were two presidents before mr.Yushchenko: mr.Kravchuk (a moderate nationalist from Westen Ukraine) and mr.Kuchma (a sly politician who was not pro-Russian at all. He allowed 'borrowing' of gas without payment).

    All current political fugures - Pres.Yushchenko, mr.Yanukovich, ms.Timoshento belonged to the team of pres.Kuchma.

    There were even better figures but they were not backed by local financial elites and hadn't chanses to be elected.

    I agree about 1917 and 1991. As for 2000 then it was not a revolution. It was rather regrouping of ruling regime. Mr.Putin is a strong leader no doubt but our life is so fast changing that noone can predict what will happen 2-3-5 years later.

    Rigging was really insignificant because mr.Yushchenko added no more than 5% to his result.

    However it is technically possible (and it is my point) for Russian ruling elites to pretend that they are 'divided', that 2 parties represent their interests. In this case there would be 'political struggle' without real struggle.

    I repeat my point in other words: existence of 2 parties that run country one after another is not a proof of true democracy.