Bad news from Iran

#1
The BBC reports on the results of the Iranian elections.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Islamic hard-liner has won the Presidential elections amidst the usual allegations of ballot-rigging. There was also an extremely low turnout, which seems odd given the pre-election hype about dissatisfaction with the mullahs by the new urbanised Iranian middle-classes that I read about recently.

An ex-military man, he will undoubtedly be bullish re. the Iranian nuclear program and the new Iraqi government. And I suppose we won't be getting our boats back either 8)

I'm sure some of the foreign policy/ middle east spotters on the forum will be able to add something interesting to what this means for the region, but to this layman it doesn't look like particularly encouraging news does it?

V!
 
#3
His biggest vote winner was the White House. When threatened from outside electorates traditionally support hard-liners. And the vote-rigging didn't hurt either.
 
#4
This is a direct result of US foreign policy, whether desired or not, as pointed out earlier.

The neocons will probably embrace this as a welcome development, as an excuse to "kick Iranian butt". Anyone with a shred of common sense and who has spent some credible time in uniform (unlike war-dodgers Dubya, Cheney and Rumsfeld) or who is currently in uniform, will despair.
 
#5
Time to start packing me thinks.......
 
#6
Oh no :(

The US said the election was "flawed" and described it as "out of step" with regional trends towards democracy.

Quite right too, they bypassed the essestial first step to democracy of being invaded first

In Washington, a state department official said the US would judge Iran under Mr Ahmadinejad by its actions.

Hello Pot , this is kettle, what is my colourstate, over?

"In light of the way these elections were conducted, however, we remain sceptical that the Iranian regime is interested in addressing either the legitimate desires of its own people, or the concerns of the broader international community," the spokeswoman said.
As you sow , so shall you reap.

What a bloody disaster. I predict an exodus of the young and talented from Iran , especially women.
 
#7
Vegetius said:
... amidst the usual allegations of ballot-rigging. There was also an extremely low turnout.V!
Doesn't sound that much different than UK politics then? I'd let 'em get on with it. If the populace want a Fundie Jundie at the helm then it's their look out.

Cynical of Bayswater
 
#8
Turn on the oven and let it sit at 365 days, then proceed to start packing...

Cheers 2CB
 
#9
Well done George! :roll: Now you've gotthe Iranian government you deserve and, me being cynical, probably wanted.
Look! Another Wolf. :evil:



PartTimePongo said:
Oh no :(


What a bloody disaster. I predict an exodus of the young and talented from Iran , especially women.
This might be good news in a way, Iranian (or at least half-Iranian) women are often quite fit. I give you Catherine Bell as evidence. :twisted:
 
#10
A result to be expected considering the "Dubbya Factor". There is no way that there would have been a major change in the theocractic leadership in Iran after the destabilising effect on the entire region with the invasion of Iraq. Israel, as ever, rumbles in the background and no doubt continues to build on what it has already, capitalising on the "they are looking at Iraq/Iran *phew* no one will notice us move a few more Palestinians/Arabs out of the way" situation already occurring. Syria and Lebanon continue to do what they do best. Afghanistan continues to cost money and breed another generation of the discontented.

I am also cynical about the timings of certain pronouncements of late from certain MLAAAARs in Charge. They need to justify the massive spending on Defence and Intelligence. This gives them the excuses they will no doubt use in the future to launch more action in an already fragile area. Problem is they will not solve any problems as there is an inherent requirement for them to continue in this fashion. A united ME would be as disastrous for US (read UK/Oz) foreign and economic policies due to the potential for further manipulation of oil supply. A divided ME will continue to seek certain concessions and assistance from the US - which suits Dubbya just fine.
 
B

Biscuits_AB

Guest
#12
Which will be put down quite violently and which hopefully will see the country turn to civil war and one Islamic sect against another.

Then again............
 
#13
Biscuits_AB said:
Which will be put down quite violently and which hopefully will see the country turn to civil war and one Islamic sect against another.

Then again............
Luckily for the Iranians the current US threat will tend to unify the country against the outside aggressor. Bit of an own goal for the US though, but then they should be used to those by now.
 
#14
Good news, in a way, for GWB and his followers as it makes the case against Iran, re. WMD, more plausible.

Not such good news for Iranians and, most likely, a rigged result. Whilst most Iranians are fed up, both with the Mullahs and the graft and nepotism rife in Iran just now, few would see a return to fundamental Islamic values as the way ahead; rather, this is what got them into the current mess in the first place. Without open government, corruption was bound to prevail.

Ahmadinejad's vow to distribute Iran's oil wealth to its citizens sounds good in the short-term, but is unlikely to hold up. The question is: what oil wealth? Without foreign expertise, the oil will stay undiscovered and underground; Iranians simply lack the technical and managerial know-how to find it and get it out.

A few years ago, I read a security estimate of Iran, which concluded that Iran would undergo a second revolution as a young population tired of social constraint. The prediction was for approx 2010-2015. This may have hastened the process.
 
B

Biscuits_AB

Guest
#15
They've had a taste of it now, so it will be difficult to let it go, especially if his hardline attitude prevails. Despite the mess that is Iraq, I would imagine that Iran, would be concerned about an American attack.

The only true way for the moderate muslims to achieve a true democracy (and that's what some will want) is to tackle the problem from within. I think that a civil war will occur there as the pro western Iranians grow tired of being oppressed
 
#16
Iranians simply lack the technical and managerial know-how to find it and get it out.
So they lack the knowledge and expertise to get oil out of the ground, but can build a Nuke, no dramas?

What is wrong with this picture?
 
#17
"So they lack the knowledge and expertise to get oil out of the ground, but can build a Nuke, no dramas?"

Don't know about nukes, just know a little about the Iranian Oil Industry.

.
 
B

Biscuits_AB

Guest
#18
PartTimePongo said:
Iranians simply lack the technical and managerial know-how to find it and get it out.
So they lack the knowledge and expertise to get oil out of the ground, but can build a Nuke, no dramas?

What is wrong with this picture?
HAve they built one?
 
#19
Well we keep being told they have the capability to BiscuitsAB.......

Seems strange the atomic physics gives them no problem, but sinking a borehole 500m does?
 
#20
Seems strange the atomic physics gives them no problem, but sinking a borehole 500m does?


I'm not an oil expert but, having talked to a few, I've been told that sinking a borehole isn't difficult provided:

You know where to sink it,

You know how deep to drill (approx 4,000m in Iran)

The drill shaft doesn't break,

You don't drill into a cavity or aggregate, and

Having found oil, you don't start pumping only to find it dries up after a month

For the most part, it's all down to knowing where to start drilling (which is damned expensive) and whether the well you're drilling into is economically viable. Without reliable seismic data, provided by competent (for which read foreign) survey companies, you're unlikely to find out.

Getting off topic a bit, and I apologise for that, but my initial point was: that if Iran frightens off foreign investors, oil exploration and exploitation would slow down and, as Iran's economy is oil driven (what else would you want from Iran? caviar, carpets, pistachio nuts?), Ahmadinejad's vow to redistribute oil wealth to the masses wouldn't hold up for long.

.
 
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