Army ‘to be cut by 20,000’ if No 10 plan is approved

Smugness and Complacency, its always been at the core of our incoherent strategy making and that was the point of the Falklands reference, as you hand the initative to the opponent by default, at a time and place of there choosing.
I don't believe anybody is being 'smug and complacent' regarding the eFP personally. It's there for a reason and not enough to make Vlad and the trolls too excitable.

The initiative more often than not rests with the aggressor, he chooses the time, place and components. Unless we're talking pre-emptive defence, which we're not.
This thread is not an argument over the baltics,
Why raise it then?
....but our ground forces and in my case, the lack of reserves for home defence and this is critical if we have a heavy naval deployment to the far east, would leave us wide open to attack, or an opportunity for Putin to pick off the Baltics, when our overstretched forces are overseas.
Which is why something like the Israeli model, if we actually had the money to do so, is a good example.
 
to add that NI while being very different just

PJ - Para jumpers - parachute / “dope on a rope” into hostile terrain to save lives. Probably most physically demanding courses in USAF

JPR - Joint Personnel Recovery

basically Combat Search And Rescue (CSAR)
War is expensive and Insurgencies wither on the vine, without money and supply... Most counter insurgency operations may well be tactically sound, are strategically dead ends.
 
Chuffed to bits. It just proves my point when the clever troll resorts to tagging "dumb" onto my posts.

Or am I mistaken and is the "clever troll" just a confused, naive and possibly wilfully ignorant fellow-traveller?
 
I don't believe anybody is being 'smug and complacent' regarding the eFP personally. It's there for a reason and not enough to make Vlad and the trolls too excitable.

The initiative more often than not rests with the aggressor, he chooses the time, place and components. Unless we're talking pre-emptive defence, which we're not.

Why raise it then?

Which is why something like the Israeli model, if we actually had the money to do so, is a good example.
The outcome of a minimal eFP or no eFP, the outcome is the same ? If the intent exists to occupy the Falklands, or the Baltic States, the only way to stop it is a substantial enough deployment, to make a decent fight for at least a couple of weeks.... The smugness, is we are in control of events and the complacency that putin wouldn't dare.

Contrast with my comments on south korea and the US reinforcement plan in the event of a conflict of any size, or duration.
 
War is expensive and Insurgencies wither on the vine, without money and supply... Most counter insurgency operations may well be tactically sound, are strategically dead ends.
Which is where the Strategic Corporal comes in

the decision he makes at a tactical level can have strategic ramifications

and the only reliable way to stop that flow is at both strategic and tactical level
 

Caecilius

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
The outcome of a minimal eFP or no eFP, the outcome is the same ? If the intent exists to occupy the Falklands, or the Baltic States, the only way to stop it is a substantial enough deployment
Not necessarily. The point of eFP is to significantly raise the political cost of an invasion. It definitely achieves that - the question is whether that's enough to provide a deterrent effect.

There's an awful lot of people on here claiming to be absolutely sure about things that most sensible commentators would regard as uncertain. We never know whether deterrence has worked; only when it's failed.
 
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Cruthin1967

Clanker
(not sure what rank Johnson held in the CCF).
I have it on good authority that Boris dePfeiffer Johnson did not join Eton CCF. He was known as a “slack bob” who did very little other than turn up to lessons late and masturbate loudly in his boarding house. Housemaster despised him. Source: fellow OTC UO who didn’t mind associating with state school scumbags like me.​
 
The outcome of a minimal eFP or no eFP, the outcome is the same ? If the intent exists to occupy the Falklands, or the Baltic States, the only way to stop it is a substantial enough deployment, to make a decent fight for at least a couple of weeks....
You said “This thread is not an argument over the baltics,” yet here we are.

The idea of the eFP is to place enough NATO forces in those countries to deter Vlad moving his drinks cabinet to Riga dockyard, yet not provide enough forces to enable Vlad and his trolls the ammunition (swidt) they need to say they are in fear of invasion.
The smugness, is we are in control of events and the complacency that putin wouldn't dare.
Wrong. Nobody knows if a deterrent has worked for sure. Only when it has failed or circumstances change.
Contrast with my comments on south korea and the US reinforcement plan in the event of a conflict of any size, or duration.
Which are there because there is only a ceasefire and has been a gradual draw down since the war.
 
Not necessarily. The point of eFP is to significantly raise the political cost of an invasion. It definitely achieves that - the question is whether that's enough to provide a deterrent effect.

There's an awful lot of people on here claiming to be absolutely sure about things that most sensible commentators would regard as uncertain. We never know whether deterrence has worked; only when it's failed.
All Russia sees is shrinking defence budgets in europe and only has to wait (imagine, if the argentines had waited until after Hermes had been decommissioned).... I have never been personally convinced the russians would want to occupy the baltic states, as anything but leverage for some other operation and the eFP is probably safe as houses for now.

Strategic guesswork is a fiction I admit, but sensible types are usually the ones who get caught with their pants down. My greatest fear is the Services are fannying about in the far east with china and Russia decides its an opportune moment to pick up another easy victory, all the while our home islands are bereft of a reserve and the government is calling for volunteers.
 
we do that rather well, Pavel in Peterborough happily wears his Union Jack boxers, not so his cousin Alex in a Essen, he can wear German boxers, but he will always remain an Auslander.

Germany desperately needs migration, but it’s one of the least welcoming places in the developed world for them.

UK will be the most populous country in Europe, @100 million, by 2040, Germany is depopulating a fierce rate as it gets old, very old. Helmut has simply stopped breeding. And then there is Italy, it could see its population halve.
They imported over a miliion baby makers recently.

Generation one
Average 7 brats each.
And all live a cool 7 000 000
Generation two
7m x 2 =14m
14m x 7 =98 000 000
 
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so just the same as every other European country with the exception of the UK and France, but significantly better than most.
Go compare Germany with Russia for instance.
Got some news for you sparky, it isn't just Europe.

China’s working-age population will decline from 950 million in 2017 to about 360 million by 2100, according to the forecast, while India’s will come down from 762 million to about 580 million.

World population in 2100 could be 2 billion below UN forecasts, study suggests
 
Not comrade Tommy button masher extraordinaire perchance? You know who he reminds me of, lots?

184461
Possibly from the same school. But this one often sounds quite (dangerously) plausible and rational. If it wasn't for some of his (her?) more outrageous posts, I might even guess at a "devil's advocate"/"agent provocateur" type.
 
(not sure what rank Johnson held in the CCF).
I have it on good authority that Boris dePfeiffer Johnson did not join Eton CCF. He was known as a “slack bob” who did very little other than turn up to lessons late and masturbate loudly in his boarding house. Housemaster despised him. Source: fellow OTC UO who didn’t mind associating with state school scumbags like me.​
So. not vastly different from Cameron then? :-D
 
we do that rather well, Pavel in Peterborough happily wears his Union Jack boxers, not so his cousin Alex in a Essen, he can wear German boxers, but he will always remain an Auslander.

Germany desperately needs migration, but it’s one of the least welcoming places in the developed world for them.

UK will be the most populous country in Europe, @100 million, by 2040, Germany is depopulating a fierce rate as it gets old, very old. Helmut has simply stopped breeding. And then there is Italy, it could see its population halve.
Not a feckin Scooby - Germany has a lot of programs for immigrants, one of my colleagues being one. As does the rest of Western Europe - the Netherlands being particularly good.

Their population figures are, like ours, boosted by immigrant birth rates. Hence all of the mooslims taking over bollocks from the hard of thinking.

1594828849373.png
 
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1. Vantage we had weeks to deploy a full Brigade and Aircraft Carrier.
2. 1970s deployment of a nuke sub (with secret orders not to fire). Was done in advance.
3. Corporate we had a few hours to reinforce and surprise is the pre-requisite of modern operations.
4. Invasion of Kuwait we had a few hours notices.
5. Granby we had months to deploy a Division.

Deterrence only works when you have a force on hand. The enemy get a say in how far deterence theory works, the russians will not follow some slow burning and incremented rise in tension because we have a token force in situ. So the deployment of a token force and a deterrence increases the likelyhood of attack.

Conclusions:-
We should have deployed a full Brigade, or adopted masterly inaction like most of our NATO partners.
You're trying to make a point I'm sure. Not managing coherence yet though.
 
Not a feckin Scooby - Germany has a lot of programs for immigrants, one of my colleagues being one. As does the rest of Western Europe - the Netherlands being particularly good.

Their population figures are, like ours, boosted by immigrant birth rates. Hence all of the mooslims taking over bollocks from the hard of thinking.

View attachment 489898View attachment 489898
I wonder how many Mohammed"s there are now
 

FORMER_FYRDMAN

LE
Book Reviewer
The Bands, in rather the same way as, say, the Mobile Bath and Laundry Units, lack(ed) in sex appeal and consequently didn't have the readers of daily papers (various) lining up to squeal in horror at their potential removal from the ORBAT. On the other hand, a quick consideration of the fact that the Bandsmen were the war establishment stretcher bearers, identifies that as soon as there are casualties, they have to get carried out of contact (a long way out of contact) by their oppos. This is particularly going to be the case where an A2AD bubble denies MERT access via Avn, and we're running (sort of running) 80 year-old ambulances... (The mobile laundries, btw, were the decontamination units, and not having any of them is fine unless you have any aspiration for your troops to survive more the 12 hours against an adversary who's content to go CBRN [but there aren't any of those left in the 21st Century are there? I mean, everyone is frightfully civilised, and it's not like anyone's gone chem or rad during peacetime on the streets of the UK in the past few years...]).

The current state of Defence, let alone a further denuded one, speaks of a political establishment that is functionally illiterate in Defence terms, advised by a Civil Service that has been systematically de-skilled in favour of aspecialist generalism. Defence ought to be an insurance policy, rather than an investment that can be considered purely on the basis of economic return. The value of the investment needs to balance the threat (which has, and continues to, increase(d) significantly over the past 2 decades), rather than being something over which we ponder the affordability. The state's primary responsibility is the defence of its citizenry - this goes back to Hobbes, for heaven's sake.

Do the mental exercise of trying to build a self-supporting, C/CS/CSS coherent ORBAT, and very quickly you start finding the rips and tears in the Emperor's clothes that we all know about really, but just don't take the time to think about from day to day.
That also assumes that wars of the future will look much like wars of the past.

Future conflicts against peer opponents are unlikely to be heavyweight square-ups given the potential to escalate, and current force capabilities have shown that they are more than adequate for pointless and ineffectual adventures in hot places. The real threats are going to come from social subversion, cyber, bacteriological and Sudetenland-style agitation combined with a version of bite and hold using SF/proxy forces, as per the Ukraine. And there's no evidence that the implications of that have been thought through, let alone mitigated.

Western economies and their supporting media and political structures are breathtakingly easy to subvert if you have deep pockets - and China knows how to spend its cash. COVID may have been accidental but it won't have escaped notice that it's effectively been a major strategic defeat for the West. Something of limited lethality but which can cripple an economy would be well worth being able to replicate, not to mention representing a new way of thinking about bacteriological warfare.

A few traditional battalions more or less will make little practical difference.
 
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Chuffed to bits. It just proves my point when the clever troll resorts to tagging "dumb" onto my posts.

Or am I mistaken and is the "clever troll" just a confused, naive and possibly wilfully ignorant fellow-traveller?
What he does is run off to Google to find out what you're talking about, the "dumb" is a holding tactic. He'll then stop replying to you and call you a beastly wotter.
 
What he does is run off to Google to find out what you're talking about, the "dumb" is a holding tactic. He'll then stop replying to you and call you a beastly wotter.
So the Four Battalions of the eFP. Are they're better concentrated in one country, or dispersed over four ?
 
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