Army ‘to be cut by 20,000’ if No 10 plan is approved

When was the last time that the UK, France, China, or the USA assassinated a Russian, in Russia, and "got away with it"?



As opposed to the Russian way, where even fewer of the population are represented - one man, one vote, if the one man is Putin...

Meanwhile, Dear Leader has just managed another fiddled step towards "President for Life Idi Amin DadaVladimir Putin" by the traditional methods of ballot-box stuffing* and offering a rigged choice in the constitutional referendum:

"Do you want chocolate fountains, unicorns, banning homosexuality, and the removal of the two-term limit for the President; or do you want sh!t for breakfast, regular floggings by foreign atheists, and keep the two-term limit? Pick one!"

* Foolishly, they released the raw polling data, and some enterprising statisticians ran an analysis which rather suggests that the outcome was never in doubt (link)...
In Soviet Russia, politician votes for YOU! ;)

Ian Fleming, after working as a journalist in Russia, said that, "Russians love the knout(whip)". He believed that Russians preferred a leader who made the Russian Bear strong and feared by other nations. No matter how self-destructive his policies were in the long run.
 
In Soviet Russia, politician votes for YOU! ;)

Ian Fleming, after working as a journalist in Russia, said that, "Russians love the knout(whip)". He believed that Russians preferred a leader who made the Russian Bear strong and feared by other nations. No matter how self-destructive his policies were in the long run.
Caused by centuries of Muscovite rule and conditioning. It would have been very different had the Mongols not crushed the original Russian Principalities and elevated Moscow (then a minor provincial trading outpost) as their enforcer and tax-collector. At the wane of the Mongol overlordship, the Novgorod Republic, the most likely potential rival to Muscovy was conquered by Moscow and absorbed into Muscovite Russia.

A Novgorodian Russia would have developed very differently from the Muscovite one. Novgorod faced westwards and was heavily influenced by its trading links with the rest of Europe. It had allied itself with Poland-Lithuania in its struggle to maintain independence from Muscovite rule and that was anathema to the Muscovite despots.

Even then Info-Ops played a part as Moscow successfully spread the unfounded rumour that the rulers of Novgorod were planning to convert their Orthodox lands to Roman Catholicism.
 
History shows Operations such as Vantage do work.
1. Vantage we had weeks to deploy a full Brigade and Aircraft Carrier.
2. 1970s deployment of a nuke sub (with secret orders not to fire). Was done in advance.
3. Corporate we had a few hours to reinforce and surprise is the pre-requisite of modern operations.
4. Invasion of Kuwait we had a few hours notices.
5. Granby we had months to deploy a Division.

Deterrence only works when you have a force on hand. The enemy get a say in how far deterence theory works, the russians will not follow some slow burning and incremented rise in tension because we have a token force in situ. So the deployment of a token force and a deterrence increases the likelyhood of attack.

Conclusions:-
We should have deployed a full Brigade, or adopted masterly inaction like most of our NATO partners.
 
Caused by centuries of Muscovite rule and conditioning. It would have been very different had the Mongols not crushed the original Russian Principalities and elevated Moscow (then a minor provincial trading outpost) as their enforcer and tax-collector. At the wane of the Mongol overlordship, the Novgorod Republic, the most likely potential rival to Muscovy was conquered by Moscow and absorbed into Muscovite Russia.

A Novgorodian Russia would have developed very differently from the Muscovite one. Novgorod faced westwards and was heavily influenced by its trading links with the rest of Europe. It had allied itself with Poland-Lithuania in its struggle to maintain independence from Muscovite rule and that was anathema to the Muscovite despots.

Even then Info-Ops played a part as Moscow successfully spread the unfounded rumour that the rulers of Novgorod were planning to convert their Orthodox lands to Roman Catholicism.
Yes and an England led by Northumbria, might have been a saner one than Wessex.
 
1. Vantage we had weeks to deploy a full Brigade and Aircraft Carrier.
2. 1970s deployment of a nuke sub (with secret orders not to fire). Was done in advance.
3. Corporate we had a few hours to reinforce and surprise is the pre-requisite of modern operations.
4. Invasion of Kuwait we had a few hours notices.
5. Granby we had months to deploy a Division.
Pre-positioned forces do work then? Thank you
Deterrence only works when you have a force on hand. The enemy get a say in how far deterence theory works, the russians will not follow some slow burning and incremented rise in tension because we have a token force in situ. So the deployment of a token force and a deterrence increases the likelyhood of attack.
Disagree. It’s worked remarkably well so far. As has Op Relentless.
Conclusions:-
We should have deployed a full Brigade, or adopted masterly inaction like most of our NATO partners.
Deploying a Brigade, or the actual five or so Armoured ones needed would give Vlad and his trolls a valid cause for once.

I take it you missed the US, French, German, Canadian etc. deployments?
 
1. Vantage we had weeks to deploy a full Brigade and Aircraft Carrier.
2. 1970s deployment of a nuke sub (with secret orders not to fire). Was done in advance.
3. Corporate we had a few hours to reinforce and surprise is the pre-requisite of modern operations.
4. Invasion of Kuwait we had a few hours notices.
5. Granby we had months to deploy a Division.

Deterrence only works when you have a force on hand. The enemy get a say in how far deterence theory works, the russians will not follow some slow burning and incremented rise in tension because we have a token force in situ. So the deployment of a token force and a deterrence increases the likelyhood of attack.

Conclusions:-
We should have deployed a full Brigade, or adopted masterly inaction like most of our NATO partners.
In terms of deterrence, this recent paper by Jack Watling is very worthwhile as is the launch presentation, ARRC seems to have commissioned someone to do a good hard look and not pull punches...

 
Someone is getting frustrated.
 
The European part of Russia's population is decreasing at a rapid rate due to a low birth rate.
so just the same as every other European country with the exception of the UK and France, but significantly better than most.
Go compare Germany with Russia for instance.
 

Bob65

War Hero
so just the same as every other European country with the exception of the UK and France, but significantly better than most.
Go compare Germany with Russia for instance.
Culture is fate, and a country that can replace its dwindling native populate with immigrants and assimilate them into its culture is a very different thing to one that can't. Note: countries can have this capability for centuries, and lose it or abandon it in a generation.
 
This is my fear also. I am quite pessimistic about the future of E Europe.
Poland will be the kick-ball. IMO we have blown it leaving the EU (really not going there) when we could have really have made something of it by using their talents. Again, not really going there:)
WAH shield up
Completely disagree and shows you have been successfully brainwashed by the EU.

We were in the EU, our politicians and MEPs (well most of them) desperately wanted to be there, make it a success so everyone benefited. Unfortunately the EU refused to listen to our elected politicians and MEPs over improving the way the EU worked and to make their actions less opaque. Upshot was we left and it's become very obvious all the EU wanted us for was our money.

WAH shield down.

My apologies for a Brexit rant on an unrelated thread but it wasn't me that started in guv
 
Culture is fate, and a country that can replace its dwindling native populate with immigrants and assimilate them into its culture is a very different thing to one that can't. Note: countries can have this capability for centuries, and lose it or abandon it in a generation.
we do that rather well, Pavel in Peterborough happily wears his Union Jack boxers, not so his cousin Alex in a Essen, he can wear German boxers, but he will always remain an Auslander.

Germany desperately needs migration, but it’s one of the least welcoming places in the developed world for them.

UK will be the most populous country in Europe, @100 million, by 2040, Germany is depopulating a fierce rate as it gets old, very old. Helmut has simply stopped breeding. And then there is Italy, it could see its population halve.
 
This is my fear also. I am quite pessimistic about the future of E Europe.
Poland will be the kick-ball. IMO we have blown it leaving the EU (really not going there) when we could have really have made something of it by using their talents. Again, not really going there:)
There is a bigger challenge there.
If the rest of Europe's commitment to the defence of its eastern marches depends on the forces and focus of one of its more westerly members, I'd suggest there is a bigger strategic vacuum at the heart of the EU than previously suggested.

As suggested in Roussinous' German paper, a focus on selling more Leopard's to Turkey rather than maintaining their own armed forces is not good.
As Watling highlights, the Russians see strategic depth very differently, so Eastern Europe not having a realistic backstop or an onside neighbour walking quietly with a big stick is seen as a vulnerability.

Though there might be a lot of validity in Russia wanting to re-envelop Rodina in layers of ablative countries in a proto Warsaw pact ( a mentality that may go back to the tartar yoke, where distance was no real protection), I suspect it is a little more of the bully flexing his muscles and wanting neighbours to be in abeyance and compliant to commercial demands.
Nordstream 2 seems an example in case, there has been resistance to its construction that the Russians have basically ridden roughshod over.

I'd imagine a Russian negotiator taking a line of "you will take our fcuking gas, who are you with what army to say no?" has no small appeal to the muzchina in the ulitsa.

Dominating neighbours can be a very acceptable form of defence
 
Pre-positioned forces do work then? Thank you

Disagree. It’s worked remarkably well so far. As has Op Relentless.

Deploying a Brigade, or the actual five or so Armoured ones needed would give Vlad and his trolls a valid cause for once.

I take it you missed the US, French, German, Canadian etc. deployments?
The Americans have 2nd Division in Korea with a single roulement brigade. But also a mighty force of ROK and 200 US Aircraft in place and a carrier on 48hrs. The point is prepositioned, has to be of a size that is chunky enough to matter... We have a dispersed Brigade and a single UK Battalion group with minimal air support and naval assets on standby.

Deterrence is validated by the absence of conflict. On that basis our little marine detachment in the falklands did a marvellous job for decades and even doubled in size, eh, until the argentines invaded.
 
WAH shield up
Completely disagree and shows you have been successfully brainwashed by the EU.

We were in the EU, our politicians and MEPs (well most of them) desperately wanted to be there, make it a success so everyone benefited. Unfortunately the EU refused to listen to our elected politicians and MEPs over improving the way the EU worked and to make their actions less opaque. Upshot was we left and it's become very obvious all the EU wanted us for was our money.

WAH shield down.

My apologies for a Brexit rant on an unrelated thread but it wasn't me that started in guv
Its a fair comment because from Blair to Cameron, the defence policy has been to inveigle ourselves ever closer to europe to the extent of even buying the crappy kit. The FRES concept was torpedoed, like many of our theoretical commitments by a lack of resources that have been wasted on colloborative efforts.
 
The Americans have 2nd Division in Korea with a single roulement brigade. But also a mighty force of ROK and 200 US Aircraft in place and a carrier on 48hrs. The point is prepositioned, has to be of a size that is chunky enough to matter... We have a dispersed Brigade and a single UK Battalion group with minimal air support and naval assets on standby.
The eFP is enough for now. Not enough to make Vlad and the trolls scream and shout. Enough that they keep saying it’s irrelevant.
Deterrence is validated by the absence of conflict. On that basis our little marine detachment in the falklands did a marvellous job for decades and even doubled in size, eh, until the argentines invaded.
As a proclaimed historian, you’ll know what led to the Argentinian invasion. Amongst such things will be their actions on S Georgia and publishing info about HMS Endurance. That and the ever present ‘economy in trouble, let’s look for an external scapegoat’.
 
Our clever troll, is using every trick in the Muscovite book to foster and increase divisiveness, to sow confusion and doubt and to spread despondency. From downright lies to half-truths and obfuscations. From irrelevant comparisons to false examples.

However, this site is not full of the ignorant and easily deceived.
 
The eFP is enough for now. Not enough to make Vlad and the trolls scream and shout. Enough that they keep saying it’s irrelevant.

As a proclaimed historian, you’ll know what led to the Argentinian invasion. Amongst such things will be their actions on S Georgia and publishing info about HMS Endurance. That and the ever present ‘economy in trouble, let’s look for an external scapegoat’.
It just proves the point that it is effective, if the trolls push so hard to denigrate it.
 
I would be cautious about comparing NI with Basra and Helmand for many reasons but


Quite possibly but compare and contrast force size, population size and density, geographic size between NI, Basra and Helmand.... there wasn’t enough troops deployed.



Absolutely agree or go build such a force in short order. But that force has to uphold the Rule of law and be impartial in upholding human rights as does any outside force which is deployed.

The British Army was deployed on the streets of NI because the RUC had lost control and didn’t have the trust of a sizeably minority of the population as they failed to protect them and in some cases were complicit in what was happening.

Any force (police or military) needs the confidence and support of the population to do its job. That is especially true in COIN. so you are better off if at all possible using precision limited violence and living among the population (ie don’t commute to the town you are protecting). That makes you very vulnerable but it really is the only way to deny the vital ground to the enemy.
to add that NI while being very different just
What is a PJ course and what is JPR

Archie
PJ - Para jumpers - parachute / “dope on a rope” into hostile terrain to save lives. Probably most physically demanding courses in USAF

JPR - Joint Personnel Recovery

basically Combat Search And Rescue (CSAR)
 
The eFP is enough for now. Not enough to make Vlad and the trolls scream and shout. Enough that they keep saying it’s irrelevant.

As a proclaimed historian, you’ll know what led to the Argentinian invasion. Amongst such things will be their actions on S Georgia and publishing info about HMS Endurance. That and the ever present ‘economy in trouble, let’s look for an external scapegoat’.
Smugness and Complacency, its always been at the core of our incoherent strategy making and that was the point of the Falklands reference, as you hand the initative to the opponent by default, at a time and place of there choosing.

This thread is not an argument over the baltics, but our ground forces and in my case, the lack of reserves for home defence and this is critical if we have a heavy naval deployment to the far east, would leave us wide open to attack, or an opportunity for Putin to pick off the Baltics, when our overstretched forces are overseas.
 

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