Army ‘to be cut by 20,000’ if No 10 plan is approved

You make a valid point. Historically Germany (to include its most recent great power antecedents) has oscillated between cooperation with and hostility to Russia. Moscow is actively working to disrupt and dissolve NATO and one of its ploys is economic enticement of Germany.

Now Russian info-Ops will be actively seeking to promote hostility between Poland and Germany. To this end they unfortunately already have willing collaborators in both countries.
This is my fear also. I am quite pessimistic about the future of E Europe.
Poland will be the kick-ball. IMO we have blown it leaving the EU (really not going there) when we could have really have made something of it by using their talents. Again, not really going there:)
 
That wooshing sound is the point going right over your head

re 1

Weve all agreed the force is insufficient to deal with an attack - thats not been disputed - The fact you (and Photex) keep banging on about this only highlights to the world you havent grasped the concept of deterrence.

re2
Whist ive no doubt you are correct there will be vacillations and excuses not to take direct action
Britain France and the US all have troops there - knocking them over in 48 hours is all well and good but youve inflicted casualties - There is no way France, the UK or the US are going to say oh well fair enough - It will mean war -
So Russia isnt going to go charging into Estonia because whether the US is really willing to fight another war in Europe or not - once they kill US servicemen the wars on.


The logic you are using would see the UK and France either renege or call it quits in 1939 -
Our old vicar was an Intelligence officer attached to ACE Mobile Force..... "militarily it was a nonsense.. too many languages, doctrines, and bits of incompatible kit... our main purpose was to get killed quickly showing casualties in all the member counties so they all had a stake in the game..."
 

Caecilius

LE
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Scotty Miller tweeted about it. Not sure about people already going, but definitely for the next course.

That'll be interesting given the failure rates on the course. Hope whoever they send likes swimming.

Even by army standards, sending people on the PJ course seems like a ridiculous waste of money for the RAF. PJs are an exquisite capability that barely get used by the yanks, let alone by a nation like the UK that doesn't really have the assets to enable them.
 
That wooshing sound is the point going right over your head

re 1

Weve all agreed the force is insufficient to deal with an attack - thats not been disputed - The fact you (and Photex) keep banging on about this only highlights to the world you havent grasped the concept of deterrence.

re2
Whist ive no doubt you are correct there will be vacillations and excuses not to take direct action
Britain France and the US all have troops there - knocking them over in 48 hours is all well and good but youve inflicted casualties - There is no way France, the UK or the US are going to say oh well fair enough - It will mean war -
So Russia isnt going to go charging into Estonia because whether the US is really willing to fight another war in Europe or not - once they kill US servicemen the wars on.


The logic you are using would see the UK and France either renege or call it quits in 1939 -
It almost happened then and it’s what Moscow wants to happen now.
 
Ah the noble belief that a few dead Americans at the direct hands of the Russians and it WAR!

sadly mistaken, I refer the assorted believers in that to the steady stream of very dead USAF personnel at the hands of a the USSR during the Cold War. both by their home air defence forces, and by Soviet technicians and pilots acting as ‘observers’ in foreign wars like Vietnam.
 
Ah the noble belief that a few dead Americans at the direct hands of the Russians and it WAR!

sadly mistaken, I refer the assorted believers in that to the steady stream of very dead USAF personnel at the hands of a the USSR during the Cold War. both by their home air defence forces, and by Soviet technicians and pilots acting as ‘observers’ in foreign wars like Vietnam.
One plus one does not equal three. Unless it’s Mucovite distortion.
 
Ah the noble belief that a few dead Americans at the direct hands of the Russians and it WAR!

sadly mistaken, I refer the assorted believers in that to the steady stream of very dead USAF personnel at the hands of a the USSR during the Cold War. both by their home air defence forces, and by Soviet technicians and pilots acting as ‘observers’ in foreign wars like Vietnam.
Very different set of circumstances and thus responses US Aircraft snooping where they shouldnt be and observers / advisors killed alongside their charges doesnt even compare to the deliberate engagement of combat formations.

Somebody on here** has stated many times touch a US CVN and the gloves come off - its never as far as i recall been challenged.
So at some level at least its accepted theres different rules in play for different scenarios - It becomes some what illogical then to suggest that the same nation that will ignore certain incidents will deliver a hefty smack if you touch a carrier - but then claim those same facts are evidence it would ignore the immolation of an armoured brigade.


Its also odd that you feel the same UK that travelled 8000 miles to respond to unprovoked aggression wouldnt respond to it closer to home




** And im not accusing you - I dont recall who
 
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That'll be interesting given the failure rates on the course. Hope whoever they send likes swimming.

Even by army standards, sending people on the PJ course seems like a ridiculous waste of money for the RAF. PJs are an exquisite capability that barely get used by the yanks, let alone by a nation like the UK that doesn't really have the assets to enable them.
A deal for 16 MH47G has been agreed, not signed.
 
That'll be interesting given the failure rates on the course. Hope whoever they send likes swimming.

Even by army standards, sending people on the PJ course seems like a ridiculous waste of money for the RAF. PJs are an exquisite capability that barely get used by the yanks, let alone by a nation like the UK that doesn't really have the assets to enable them.
What is a PJ course and what is JPR

Archie
 
1. The force in situ deters nothing, because the russians I'm sure, think it could be knocked over in 48 hours.
They saw what happened in GW1 and 2. Were you not watching comrade Tommy?
2. NATO is by no means united on the principle of a full shooting war and so your trip wire is meaningless.
Technically speaking, a load of bollocks comrade Tommy. NATO doesn't need to be united, that's the way democracy works. Come a shooting war they'll in all probability forget petty differences.
3. A token force to be sacrificed on principles that aren't respected by your enemy, is void of logic and likely encourage an attack, in the same way setting up a patrol base in an insurgent area is guaranteed to draw fire.
Go tell the Spartans....
 
That'll be interesting given the failure rates on the course. Hope whoever they send likes swimming.

Even by army standards, sending people on the PJ course seems like a ridiculous waste of money for the RAF. PJs are an exquisite capability that barely get used by the yanks, let alone by a nation like the UK that doesn't really have the assets to enable them.
I say this in no little admiration...

It doesn't matter - it's the bigger move on the board that matters. If/when the RAF have a CRO (in particular) then they can demonstrate that they are the capability owners for JPR, and thus any funding that will* come it's way will flow into RAF capabilities rather than, say, RN (for RM). Does it matter that the poor bloke will spend 2+ years of his life being thrashed to then never use it whilst wearing crab-fat blue: of course not. It is a smart political move that is about money.

* Frankly is it a moral stain that we contract out our ability to rescue downed airmen (of whatever colour) to another country. Finally we have had our knuckles wrapped and told to do it ourselves, and the money is starting to trickle in.
 
It would suit both Germany and Berlin to carve up Poland again and restore the 1914 borders between the two nations. Modern Poland isn't even the same as the Poland of 1919-39.
Third time unlucky?
 
I say this in no little admiration...

It doesn't matter - it's the bigger move on the board that matters. If/when the RAF have a CRO (in particular) then they can demonstrate that they are the capability owners for JPR, and thus any funding that will* come it's way will flow into RAF capabilities rather than, say, RN (for RM). Does it matter that the poor bloke will spend 2+ years of his life being thrashed to then never use it whilst wearing crab-fat blue: of course not. It is a smart political move that is about money.

* Frankly is it a moral stain that we contract out our ability to rescue downed airmen (of whatever colour) to another country. Finally we have had our knuckles wrapped and told to do it ourselves, and the money is starting to trickle in.
Sad way to go about business but as you say, good play.
 
Third time unlucky?
If Germany left NATO having 'recovered' Pomerania and Western Silesia, Putin would give them Kaliningrad back. Some of my French contacts are very worried about this, but they fear that Macron is still too in thrall to Mutti Merkel to listen. Germany will do what is best for Germany. France's days of running the EU and letting the Germans pay for it are well and truly over.
 
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If Germany left NATO having 'recovered' Pomerania and Western Silesia, Putin would give them Kaliningrad back. Some of my French contacts are very worried about this, but they fear that Macron is still to in thrall to Mutti Merkel to listen. Germany will do what is best for Germany. France's days of running the EU and letting the Germans pay for it are well and truly over.
Yes a quite plausible scenario, apart from Moscow handing back their WW2 trophy and strategic western outpost. It would also lead to the Finlandisation of Germany.
 
Yes a quite plausible scenario, apart from Moscow handing back their WW2 trophy and strategic western outpost. It would also lead to the Finlandisation of Germany.
In economic terms, the Kaliningrad enclave is Russia's version of Northern Ireland. It might just suit Putin to get rid of it in exchange for getting Klaipedia back via the re-absorbed Lithuanian Oblast. If Germany is Finlandised and Poland reduced to a rump, the Baltic States will become part of the Rodina again.
 

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