Army ‘to be cut by 20,000’ if No 10 plan is approved

We need to look at the long-term.

Historically, both China and Muscovite Russia are authoritarian, expansionist powers that seek to control as much as they possibly can around them. In modern days their ambitions are unconfined.

China, although it underwent a hiatus in recent centuries, is now back on top of its game and even has a blinkered Moscow dancing to its tune.

Beijing will not be satisfied until the whole world is kow-towing in obedience to the Middle Kingdom.

Moscow has similar ambitions, but is unaware that it is already doing its master’s bidding and acting as Beijing’s icebreaker against the liberal-democratic world.

Unless the free peoples of the world get their act together, we are looking at the whole planet stagnating under the grasping claws of the dragon. This will included a muzzled bear in a tiny cage with its paws cut off and its bile being extracted as, respectively, delicacies and an elixir for the Emperor. The eagles both bald and black will be in a smaller cages with their wings and talons clipped, kept as a playthings. The cockerel will crow no more in the belly of the dragon and the lion will have lost its roar leashed to the Emperor’s throne.

I do not relish such a world.
 
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Just like Hitler was only assembling Greater Germany by collecting those areas that were ethnically German, or historically German, or had in the past fallen under German control. (Oh, and a little bit of Lebensraum, but that was in the East and he hoped nobody of significance would mind)


Yes dear, because Germany had owned most of the territory it annexed in 1935-38 since forever…

ffb44a89307151dfd990286c2b8fb35f.jpg
 
We need to look at the long-term.

Historically, both China and Muscovite Russia are authoritarian, expansionist powers that seek to control as much as they possibly can around them. In modern days their ambitions are unconfined.

China, although it underwent a hiatus in recent centuries, is now back on top of its game and even has a blinkered Moscow dancing to its tune.

Beijing will not be satisfied until the whole world is kow-towing in obedience to the Middle Kingdom.

Moscow has similar ambitions, but is unaware that it is already doing its masters bidding and acting as Beijing’s icebreaker against the liberal-democratic world.

Unless the free peoples of the world get their act together, we are looking at the whole planet stagnating under the grasping claws of the dragon. This will included a muzzled bear in a tiny cage with its paws cut off and its bile being extracted as, respectively, delicacies and an elixir for the Emperor. The eagles both bald and black will be in a smaller cages with their wings and talons clipped, kept as a playthings. The cockerel will crow no more in the belly of the dragon and the lion will have lost its roar leashes to the Emperor’s throne.

I do not relish such a world.
The Russians would point out that repeatedly the western European powers have invaded them, at the cost of millions of Russian lives. They have learned through long, bitter, experience, it is better to trade someone else's territory and lives to protect the motherland than to have to do it on the plains to the west of the Urals.

The Russian mindset is pretty easy to understand once you start from their shoes, not those of Paris or London.
 
The Russians would point out that repeatedly the western European powers have invaded them, at the cost of millions of Russian lives. They have learned through long, bitter, experience, it is better to trade someone else's territory and lives to protect the motherland than to have to do it on the plains to the west of the Urals.

The Russian mindset is pretty easy to understand once you start from their shoes, not those of Paris or London.
Muscovy is a rapacious expansionist state, that first crushed and swallowed other Russian states and then embarked on further conquest. It plays the victim card very well, but it is rather unconvincing when you dig deeper into historical fact. Its greatest calamities (including WW2) it brought upon itself.
 

jrwlynch

LE
Book Reviewer
Yes dear, because Germany had owned most of the territory it annexed in 1935-38 since forever…
A pretty good trick since "Germany" as a nation - well, leaping straight from "loose confederation of statelets" to "empire" on Prussian coat-tails - only came into existence in 1871.

History another one of those "not your strong point" areas?
 
We do seem to have either some very clever Muscovite trolls on this thread. Or some very naive and blinkered people. Or some very duped fellow-travellers. Probably a combination of all three. All working to extol the virtues of despotic, autocratic powers. Well I suppose that it proves we still have freedom of speech. In contrast to the removal of it from Hong Kong where the claw of the dragon is busy increasing its suffocating grasp.
 
The Russians would point out that repeatedly the western European powers have invaded them, at the cost of millions of Russian lives. They have learned through long, bitter, experience, it is better to trade someone else's territory and lives to protect the motherland than to have to do it on the plains to the west of the Urals.

The Russian mindset is pretty easy to understand once you start from their shoes, not those of Paris or London.
Quite so, they've always seen themselves as being surrounded by enemies and it influences their strategic thinking. Just as true today as it was under both Communist and Imperial rule.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
 
A pretty good trick since "Germany" as a nation - well, leaping straight from "loose confederation of statelets" to "empire" on Prussian coat-tails - only came into existence in 1871.

History another one of those "not your strong point" areas?
Don't forget that 'small sausage factory in Tanganyika'!!

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
 
Quite so, they've always seen themselves as being surrounded by enemies and it influences their strategic thinking. Just as true today as it was under both Communist and Imperial rule.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
To Moscow, everyone is a (potential) enemy. They stop being enemies only when controlled by Moscow.
 

jrwlynch

LE
Book Reviewer
The Russians would point out that repeatedly the western European powers have invaded them, at the cost of millions of Russian lives. They have learned through long, bitter, experience, it is better to trade someone else's territory and lives to protect the motherland than to have to do it on the plains to the west of the Urals.

The Russian mindset is pretty easy to understand once you start from their shoes, not those of Paris or London.
To an extent: until you try to get your head around "this Hitler bloke has declared his intent to invade our lands and slaughter our people, so let's give him all the oil and grain he needs to help him defeat France and Britain, because then he'd never do anything rude like launch the surprise invasion of the USSR that his entire philosophy depends on".

Not sure where deciding a short and victorious foreign adventure would enthuse the people and rally them around the leader fits, either, but the plan was that it would all be over by Christmas (1904). After all, how hard could beating the Japanese be?
 
The Russians would point out that repeatedly the western European powers have invaded them, at the cost of millions of Russian lives. They have learned through long, bitter, experience, it is better to trade someone else's territory and lives to protect the motherland than to have to do it on the plains to the west of the Urals.

The Russian mindset is pretty easy to understand once you start from their shoes, not those of Paris or London.

What he said - in spades.

Back in the 70's, got an invite aboard a visiting Russian training ship, naturally, the sermon from the Political Officer before the friendlies. Got exactly that speech illustrated by a map.
And when you look at a Russian world map, it hits you.
We see East and West, with Europe in the middle - their maps centre on Moscow and show Russia in the middle with enemies on both sides.


unnamed.jpg
 
A pretty good trick since "Germany" as a nation - well, leaping straight from "loose confederation of statelets" to "empire" on Prussian coat-tails - only came into existence in 1871.

History another one of those "not your strong point" areas?

We'll just forget that Der neues Germans co opted every Germanic excuse back to the Teutonic Knights and even Herman the German to justify their assorted bogus Greater German Homeland claims - they even sent the Ahnenerbe to Tibet in 1938 'discover' its Nazi homeland roots.

Meanwhile, the 'Free' Baltics, only existed as counties for a blink of an eye - 1920-40 - after being part of Russia as long as Scotland has been part of Great Britain.
 
IIRC Georgia kicked off in the mistaken belief that NATO would come charging to its rescue, which NATO then declined to do.
Ukraine, the Baltics, Finns, Poles et al all look at things from history, less so current status.
As for GRU/FSB/SVR playing away, they're doing what every other nation does, if rather sloppily. Those chemical and nuclear attacks, from memory, killed 2 people and made 3 more ill for a while, hardly weapons of mass destruction.
So how is Russia, or China, a threat to UK?

It's a long term thing.

We are, and have been for appx. 100 years, broadly a Liberal democracy.

Most of us seem reasonably content with that.

Meaningful mass-suffrage democracy is fairly new. Us and the Yanks are probably the longest continuous democracies in modern terms. Much of Eastern Europe has still got active citizens aged 50+ who were the first real voters in their nations' histories.

Russia and more explicitly China are hostile, philosophically, to the idea of accountable Government.

It begins to look like the ideological struggle is between these two positions.


The threat to UK from Russia and China is one in which our ideas about ourselves and the way we want to order our affairs are under attack.


It may or may not be significant now, it may or may not potentially be more significant in the future.

I don't think we're in any imminent danger of conventional military assault from either. However, in a paradigm where conflict is constant, conflict can present itself in varied ways.
 
It's a long term thing.

We are, and have been for appx. 100 years, broadly a Liberal democracy.

Most of us seem reasonably content with that.

Meaningful mass-suffrage democracy is fairly new. Us and the Yanks are probably the longest continuous democracies in modern terms. Much of Eastern Europe has still got active citizens aged 50+ who were the first real voters in their nations' histories.

Russia and more explicitly China are hostile, philosophically, to the idea of accountable Government.

It begins to look like the ideological struggle is between these two positions.


The threat to UK from Russia and China is one in which our ideas about ourselves and the way we want to order our affairs are under attack.


It may or may not be significant now, it may or may not potentially be more significant in the future.

I don't think we're in any imminent danger of conventional military assault from either. However, in a paradigm where conflict is constant, conflict can present itself in varied ways.

Indeed, government of the people by the people is actually a very new and novel form of Governance for most of Europe. Its still well within living memory we had actual proper fascist and military Dictatorships in Western Europe, Spain, Greece, Portugal - and the rule of Princes and Kings was the rule for much of Europe before the Russians came and replaced it with their rule by Commissars and appointed local Kings.
 
We need to look at the long-term.

Historically, both China and Muscovite Russia are authoritarian, expansionist powers that seek to control as much as they possibly can around them. In modern days their ambitions are unconfined.

China, although it underwent a hiatus in recent centuries, is now back on top of its game and even has a blinkered Moscow dancing to its tune.

Beijing will not be satisfied until the whole world is kow-towing in obedience to the Middle Kingdom.

Moscow has similar ambitions, but is unaware that it is already doing its master’s bidding and acting as Beijing’s icebreaker against the liberal-democratic world.

Unless the free peoples of the world get their act together, we are looking at the whole planet stagnating under the grasping claws of the dragon. This will included a muzzled bear in a tiny cage with its paws cut off and its bile being extracted as, respectively, delicacies and an elixir for the Emperor. The eagles both bald and black will be in a smaller cages with their wings and talons clipped, kept as a playthings. The cockerel will crow no more in the belly of the dragon and the lion will have lost its roar leashed to the Emperor’s throne.

I do not relish such a world.
Russia and China have been pushing back against western interference and expansion for 200 years. That is not conspiracy, but a matter of historical fact and those facts is what sustains the idiocy in both those two countries. I would also add who are these 'free peoples', as it means different things to different peoples, in different countries..

With regards this thread. the strategic depth against both opponents is such, that we have to think that technology is everything and can reduce the army. But then a brushfire war is the meat and drink of a sizable body of soldiers, of which a declining number can be classified as bayonets.
 
I guess your not familiar with force density..... Its a crude calculus on the ratio of soldiers to civvies. The number fluctuates over the years, from 1 to 25 soldiers per 1000 hostile/happy/indifferent civvies. Technology and Intelligence ops can reduce the ratio, but the lower the ratio, the greater the odds you will end up in a serious attritional conflict (aim of the guerilla) and lose the impetus.

As your irish, we had a NI density of roughly 1 security personnel including RUC, to 18 catholics. That gave us the ability to dominate the ground and keep the violence to a minimum, but for political reasons could not fully shut down the border, so a low burning counter insurgency and then after a series of failures PIRA switched to direct attacks outside of NI.

Conclusion:-
Small armies get eaten by guerillas, unless directed to mobile strategic operations away from the urban pop. Small armies without an adequate reserve get eaten in full on wars and given the lethality of modern equipment, that kill ratio will be likely doubled in recent years.
thanks

really I assume we are in agreement that COIN is labour intensive.

why? To deny the vital ground (civpop) to the enemy. To support and protect the civpop from insurgents in order to prevent them supporting insurgency and deny insurgents access to a support base.

there is absolutely times the gloves have to come off but that has to been, especially in more modern human rights, politically sensitive times, disinformation, media based society arguably Very much more cautiously that previously.

For example if Claret operations in Borneo were happening now and became Known about I don’t think they would be allowed to continue for. Same for Stakeknife in NI
 
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To Moscow, everyone is a (potential) enemy. They stop being enemies only when controlled by Moscow.
The same could be said for Chins, but in their case even when they control you you'd still be an enemy because you could never be Chinese or the right kind of communist.
 
Russia and China have been pushing back against western interference and expansion for 200 years. That is not conspiracy, but a matter of historical fact and those facts is what sustains the idiocy in both those two countries. I would also add who are these 'free peoples', as it means different things to different peoples, in different countries..

Moving NATO east into former Warsaw Pact countries and former Russian territories against best advice supercharged Moscows paranoia.
 

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