Arab Spring = Breeding ground for British terrorists.

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by vvaannmmaann, Jun 26, 2012.

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  1. So our security farces will step up stop and searches of 70 year old middle class grannies flying back from visiting their families in Sydney?
  2. Jonathan Evans is the Director General of the Security Service, not SIS.
  3. He's got a point with Yemen.

    AQ in the Islamic Maghreb has been tring to source weapons from the fall out in Libya, but this has been documented elsewhere on this site.

    As to threats to the UK, surely Somalia would be a more problematic region.

    Ah forgot about that.
  4. Something else we can thank Blair for after allowing uncontrolled immigration to occur thus letting more of these fuckwits into the country.
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  5. Not directly, maybe indirectly.

    The Sahel region has been getting worse for the last 8 years, ever since AFRICOM started the Pan Sahel Initiative and The Trans Sahara Counter Terrorist Initiative.

    Main threat to UK will likely be from substantive exile/diaspora communities here that come from Arab Spring countries and have a grudge. Not so sure the Libyan exiles that were/are here will fall into this bracket

    There will be a collective risk from increased access to training slightly closer to Europe (less easy say than to monitor travel to/from Pakistan)

    Attacks in the UK mainland will always need a springboard/local support network

    Main threat from Arab Spring will be increased flow of Narcotics through the region. Drugs love ungoverned spaces!



  6. Those damn Canadians do a lot of pot hence the lower Cocaine consumption! :)
  7. Thanks to the stpudiity of the Blair government, the paranoia that "ungoverned spaced" breads nastiness is entrenched in policy circles.

    Well, if some policy markers are reading (no chance):

    You haven't yet managed to stop universities being a breeding ground for radicalisation. That's ungoverned space on our door-step.

    You haven't yet managed to stop prisons being a breeding ground for radicalisation. That's ungoverned space we are supposed to control.

    Your farcical attempts to neuter the internet as "ungoverned spaced" are pitiful and unworkable, only exposing the tehcnological ineptitude of senior decision makers and that you don't take advice or wilfully don't listen to anyone who has a clue what is going on.

    "Ungoverned space"? There'll be 647,500 km sq of it when we all pull out of Afghanistan.

    Is it that there are nearer places to play? Or are we all just worried about the security of the Med so Blair and the rest of you can holiday at your mates exclusive venues safely?

    Get a bloody grip of the borders fiirst, you *********.

    (That's directed against the seniors, not UKBA. Just incase people think I'm having a go at the workers).
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  8. Drugs certainly do love ungoverned spaces. Well that's why we have so many of them! Money is the key to all this, just follow the money. As for Blair, his admission in the Express yesterday proves his Government was either filled with numnuts or was in the pockets of some very nasty vested interests. Well it wasn't full of fools, witness the bulging pockets, which leaves the other alternative. Even the lowliest operative in the borders knows that our borders controls are there subject to the Treaty of Rome art 36 defence of the borders suceeded by Art 30 of the treaty of Amsterdam.In effect what he said was that we had joined Schengen by the back door. Horrible weasely little man.If the media now accept 3.5 million migrants you can bet your life its really about 7 million And Milliband wants to wipe the slate clean? God he's going to need a lot of elbowgrease and Camerons got his work cut out.
  9. Algeria is a fascinating example of how this paranoia can overcome the reality. AQIM was the rebranding of 2 essentially different but interlinked groupings: The northern more millitantly active bunch up in the hills conducting an almost timeless insurgency and the southern grouping mainly focused on smuggling and revenue generation, with the occasional KFR and attack thrown in.

    By lumping them together and treating it as a predominantly terrorist problem, the opportunity to target the money generating flow of drugs and logistically starve the whole structure is missed.

    An interesting view on the finances of terrorism: Loretta Napoleoni: The intricate economics of terrorism | Video on
  10. The "Arab Spring" or the rise of democracy inclined Islamists that we've seen in Tunisia and Egypt is probably bad news for Takfiri, though if they fail the reverse is true. Structural economic problems across the Arab world present a grave challenge to any new regime so I'd not get our hopes up, lots of turmoil is likely.

    In Egypt we have a genuine rise in enthusiasm for representative government but we still have a military Junta in control though the MB appears to be partnering with it. The old Mubarak regime "near enemy" actually produced core AQ via brutal repression of lunatic fringe MB factions so this may be rather more difficult ground for the Takfiri. But rent seeking by the military, debt and corruption make the country rather like a large version of Greece. The big difference is the population at least breeds, boy do they breed.

    The biggest developments lately are the Tuareg takeover in Mali and what's looking like a rerun of al Anbar in Syria. The former is a direct consequence of Libya where supposedly reformed Takfiri had an important role and we appear to be facilitating our AQ affiliated chums in the latter.

    Like Iraq Syria may become a great magnate for Takfiri producing short term security gains but offering an opportunity to grow and diversify the movement. Since Hama the fall of the Syrian Baath has been a popular goal for Islamists in general. Of course if this led to a more containable regime than the relatively meek Syrian Baath that might be no bad thing but Syria is highly unpredictable. All that's likely to happen in Syria is a bloodbath spilling over its borders. Actually like al Anbar Takfiri failure to exploit a very favorable revolutionary situation thanks to their thick headed tendency to resort to heavy handed butchery is not unlikely. Naturally after such an event crusading beards who survive (and most do) will eventually return home, bringing new domestic threats.

    But what's probably a more dangerous trend is regional Saudi adventurism attempting to tamp down all this nasty democracy business and oppose Qom's rise, this has always gone hand in hand with the worst sort of Islamist radicalism. It may yet produce a more effective enemy than the idiots we have spent a decade running after.
  11. Smallbrownprivates, I am grateful for the link. She has written an apparently rather good book that I must get around to one day. Whatever my bosses think, there are only 24 hours in a day and diary is crowded too.

    This is a rather good blog, they've written well (IMHO and uneducated opinion too) on Norther African issues.

    al-Wasat –

    This is well worth a read too:

    Times Higher Education - The Dark Sahara: America's War on Terror in Africa

    Whatever one thinks of Keenan, he is an expert on the Touraeg and saharan African cultures. Maybe we could listen to such people.

    (Piffle, Boumer-you are such a silly Owl! That will never catch on.)

    Careful, Alib. Chucking around terms like "takfir" you'll have policymakers running for their experts to explain simple (well, relatively simple) concepts we should have understood years ago. But we don't.

    But you're right:
    But in the Algerian experience it was largely fatwas written in London that spurred on the violence! At least we exported something.

    I haven't read this yet, but looks interesting:

    (U//FOUO) Open Source Center Al-Qaeda Master Narratives Report | Public Intelligence
    I am a great believer in listening to what someone says and taking it seriously. Please note I omit saying that I believe it. But you can take it seriously.

    Likewise what someone chooses to tell us, says a lot about themselves.

    (Bit like the dangers of talking on a discussion board or facebook).

    Any Alib, al-wast blog is discussing "Mali-The New Afghanistan.

    But what we really need to know is........has Rory Stewart ever been to Mali?