And our next contestant please... OBL replacement dead.

#2
That's the problem with Hydras: there's always another head. Far better to look at ways of chopping off their legs.
 
#3
That's the problem with Hydras: there's always another head. Far better to look at ways of chopping off their legs.
Granted, but if they can keep up the rate of decapitation, will this hydra start finding its followers reluctant to step up to the top job? After all, they often seem very reluctant to claim the virgins that they promise to their suicide vest couriers.
 
#4
Granted, but if they can keep up the rate of decapitation, will this hydra start finding its followers reluctant to step up to the top job? After all, they often seem very reluctant to claim the virgins that they promise to their suicide vest couriers.
If that type fail to step up, what's to stop the surplus suicide bombers from taking their place? We are talking about organisations which venerate the idea of dying in the cause. Decapitation strikes are at best tactically useful but not effective in the longer term as their target is already at the end of the road to jihad.

Insurgencies aren't state-on-state, army-on-army conflicts and regardless of how satisfying body-counts and high-value EKIAs might be they can't be defeated this way. Once the three cheers have died down, you're always going to be left with the 'now what?'
 

FORMER_FYRDMAN

LE
Book Reviewer
#6
If that type fail to step up, what's to stop the surplus suicide bombers from taking their place? We are talking about organisations which venerate the idea of dying in the cause. Decapitation strikes are at best tactically useful but not effective in the longer term as their target is already at the end of the road to jihad.

Insurgencies aren't state-on-state, army-on-army conflicts and regardless of how satisfying body-counts and high-value EKIAs might be they can't be defeated this way. Once the three cheers have died down, you're always going to be left with the 'now what?'
Except that the smart guys get the message - the more AQ is led by morons, the easier it is for us - if you doubt me, just look at how many wins our leadership have handed to the other side since 2001.
 
#7
Granted, but if they can keep up the rate of decapitation, will this hydra start finding its followers reluctant to step up to the top job? After all, they often seem very reluctant to claim the virgins that they promise to their suicide vest couriers.
Or the leadership switches on, goes covert to continue the war on the great Satan. The AQ leadership will improvise, adapt and overcome. He was touted by the media as a possible OBL replacement, the ORBAT is not going to be published online for CIA black-ops to target.

Still, good result.
 
#8
Except that the smart guys get the message - the more AQ is led by morons, the easier it is for us - if you doubt me, just look at how many wins our leadership have handed to the other side since 2001.
Assuming you automatically equate 'willingness to die' with 'stupidity'. Personally, I think that's a false assumption. Suicide bombers, for example, are generally of above average intelligence and education levels.

On its own, decapitation is more headline-grabbing than effective. More effective is convincing the locals of what a bunch of hopeless losers the insurgents are so that they don't join 'em and won't willingly support 'em.
 
#9
Assuming you automatically equate 'willingness to die' with 'stupidity'. Personally, I think that's a false assumption. Suicide bombers, for example, are generally of above average intelligence and education levels.

On its own, decapitation is more headline-grabbing than effective. More effective is convincing the locals of what a bunch of hopeless losers the insurgents are so that they don't join 'em and won't willingly support 'em.
Makes sense to me-the higher you go in most organisations, the more motivated you are.

That's why the rationale behind Hearts and Minds is so effective.
 
#10
Afghan_Kandak?
 
#12
Why does the Mail think he was possible replacement for Mr. BL? Do they have any evidence?

Lazy bullshit journo stuff. Old Ilyas has been knocking around for years doing his own thing - and has been reported brown bread several times before so wait out.

It's the equivelant of naming Sirajuddin Haqanni as the replacement for Mullah Omar.
 
#13
Or the leadership switches on, goes covert to continue the war on the great Satan.
Never happen. Even the great satan Britiny Speers wouldn't think that was a good idea, and by the time you get to the head of AQ you WANT everyone to know you are at te same level as Brit Speers.
 
#14
I bet the Taliban have a chart titled days in charge. Whoever is ic gets up every morning and puts another tick in the box. OBL is the leader so far.
 
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