An overtly political post

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Goatman, Dec 1, 2004.

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  1. LABOUR: the great Helmsman is a shoe -in.

  2. Labour: but sustained in power by fringe parties

  3. Conservative: (searching for something to say here...hang on...)

  4. Lib Dem/Coalition - Ming for SofS ?

  5. The People's Popular Front ( splitters!)

  1. Goatman

    Goatman LE Book Reviewer

    I was with a fairly major defence company yesterday and amongst the topics touched on was post-election state 2005.

    There was depressing unanimity from a hard-headed, realistic bunch of businessmen that LABOUR are set to win the next election, though probably with a reduced majority.

    Not sure polling ARRSE would produce a very representative result because it seems to me that the majority of posters here would cheerfully drive the dozer covering up the twitching remains of Blair,Blunkett, Hoon etc.

    What's your view ?

    All very well wishing that things were different but it ain't going to happen unless people get off their collective ARRSE now....if you didn't vote last time , it's worth remembering a lot of people died so you would have the priviledge.

    (When's this boodly MP's forum opening then Mods ?)

    Lee Shaver
  2. When we can actually get a politico to stop ; changing diaries/find a new cause this week/lying

    Failing that, watch out watch out for a sudden renewed interest prior to E2005


    However, some MP's have already graced this forum Gman 8O
  3. I suspect that labour will win with a smaller majority becuase a lot of people are just too stuck in their ways to change who they vote for. I see this in my locale all the time. A lot of the people i meet are moaning about blair etc and how labour are no longer trustworthy, and yet who are they gonna vote for??? LABOUR!!!

    (banging my head off the walll!!!! :roll: )

    agent smith
  4. I'd like to hope that someone else wins (but not the Lib Dems, cos they're pinko scum).

    Stoaty's Prediction:

    Most traditional, unthinking labour voters would vote for Joseph Stalin if he's labour PM, so no matter what happens, they'll still vote Lab.
    Middle class 1st time Labour voters from '97 will mostly vote for somebody else, splitting their votes between Con, LD & UKIP, since they're 5 grand worse off than '97 for no improvement in services.
    The Tories won't come up with a firm policy on Europe, law & order, or bureaucracy, so UKIP will take a wedge of their vote on those 3 issues.
    UKIP will get some seats, edging out the tories.
    Lib Dems will get the votes from the pro-EU left that can no longer stomach Neue Arbeit.
    Small parties will increase their share, including BNP.

    I therefore predict that:
    Labour will be the single largest party, but may not have an overall majority. In this case, will form a coalition with LD who, given a sniff of power, will jump feet first into it.

    On the other hand, if the Tories manage to formulate some cohesive policies (which differ significantly from Neue Arbeit's proposals, rather than being just different on technicalities) without Neue Arbeit laying claim to, and warping them 1st, they might be in with a shot, as they'll get the middle class vote back in full...
  5. I doubt UKIP will actually make any/much ground..
  6. I reckon UKIP has done itself no favours with the debacle over the Orange One and may well be out of it for a while. In addition I don't see that people are likely to trust them to actually run the country, the Euro Parliament is a different matter where a protest UKIP vote is unlikely to do any real damage.

    The Tories have got to pick the time to anounce their policies (assuming they have any) very carefully. If they do it too soon NuLab will simply steal them if they're any good. They have also got to stick it to Hoardy Gordy as much as Bliar over stealth taxes (particularly the pension tax) and they've got to make a big thing about being less intrusive than NuLab. The general meddlesomeness of the current mob is starting to irritate people when they consider their complete inability to do actually do anything constructive.

    Even then I think we're heading for a hung Parliament.
  7. Cutaway

    Cutaway LE Reviewer

    I bloody WISH !

    (Shouldn't that be a hanged Parliament ?)
  8. I'm confident Labour will get in again.

    The opposing parties do not, I fear, have enough going for them to tempt away labour voters from last time. People I've spoken to regard British politics as being stuck between a rock and a hard place. The best I think we can hope for is that some of the less dedicated labourites won't bother to vote and that Bliar's majority is decreased.

    Sadly, the electorate in general is uninformed and has a short memory. That, combined with the apparent wishywashiness of the alternatives, gives Labour a considerable advantage.

    I wondered for a while why Michael Howard hadn't made more capital out of the Civil Contingencies Act. Then I remembered (silly me) he started the ball rolling with the withdrawal of the right to silence. Even if the Tories do get in I can't see them repealing the CCA - they'll just regard it as a bonus.

    I'm looking for some other country to call home.......
  9. It doesn't really matter who wins as long as there is no landslide majority.

    Only then will we see a return of true dialogue and debate within the House as it will actually be neccessary to construct and deliver an argument capable of convincing opposition members to vote in a given way rather than just sending party thugs out to chivvy the new labour army of cave trolls through the approved door.
  10. Half hoping for a military coup..

    ..may soon be our only chance.

  11. Stoaty's Prediction:

    Most traditional, unthinking labour voters would vote for Joseph Stalin if he's labour PM, so no matter what happens, they'll still vote Lab.

    I have said before that I was brought up in Strong Labour Cuntry.
    Even as kids we used to echo our elders saying.
    If Labour put up a Pig it would win.
    and it would.
  12. Labour Win

    Within 12 months -

    - BOE puts interest rates up to 7% to cover the feel good consumer spend - Hey , let's face it a blunt instrument but that's all that the chancellor has given them. no choice - house prices plumet. No new buyers.

    - financial markets get more nervous than they are- bail out, bail out, go safe - bonds market gets second lift within 5 years, go dollar - US economy has capital to reinvest - UK pensions suffer cos the fund managers(our pension guys) go safe to the US, chancellor covers loss with more spend - borrows big on the money markets - we don't know it. (How much has GB borrowed and at what interet rate, this year - who's asking??? Anyone Tories :evil: )

    - dollar continues to weaken. US consumers spend less on European goods as the european capital floods in to a safe haven in the US and they re-invest in their manufacturing base. Job losses in the north of england, Germany out to lunch and France focussed one in the UK worried cos they still got £2,000 on the credit card.

    - Chancellor borrows more to fund his run at being PM. Credit agencies drop the UKcredit rating, GB borrows more cos he's within a sniff of the prize and nothing happens cos Blunkett got away with being well spin doctored, the journos are puppies, so who cares? . BOE has to raise interest rates again to cover the debt that the chancellor has run up from 2001 (take a look at the record) and consumer debt continues to rise on feelgood factor - BOE raises IR again to 10%.

    - PM esigns, given peerage and european presidency - he knows.

    - Home secretary - with no budget cos they bailed him out in Dec 2004 - owes GB, forced to argue for a rise in tax to cover 'home security'. Sits with Defence minister TCH and toes the line.. Lets face it- a westminster salary is better than the north of england which by now is like Germany - gripped by right wing parties.

    - Economry restricts violently as BOE rates bite. High unemployment.

    - Countryside in flames- thousands of unemployed head to London for answers -property prices plummit - no minister dares go there - hunting ban unenforceable - local coppers too busy with violence caused bey repossion of goods to enorce public order offences- they protect their families and resign. Eve less coppers in country areas - town centres are not places to go into due to violence and binge drinking. Smoking ban unenforceable.

    Goatman - good topic
  13. Although there is that twinge around the rectum that NuLab will win voter apathy may be their biggest problem. I suspect that a lot of people are unhappy with NuLab but are turned off by the alternatives and just might not vote. The Tories could benefit in key seats on this basis.

    So my fellow warriors all may not yet be lost. You know that if I was on the Titanic I would have found a way to survive.
  14. What worries me is that the Tories are no longer seen as "a safe pair of hands". in the past it seems that whenever Labour has fouled up people have said, "Oh well, the Tories might be dull, and toffs, but at least they won't make it any worse". The din of spin that surrounds NuLab disguises just what a mess they are storing up.
    Even the EU is starting to get at them, the Eurocrats are refusing to refund the Government to the tune of at least £600m of FMD compensation. Brussels believes that Bliars lot in No. 10 (not MAFF for once, he went over their heads) wasted money on the uneccessary and (despite retrospective laws) completely illegal contiguous cull.
  15. well the torys did such a bang up job last time they were in.
    its like looking at labour in the 1980s javascript:emoticon(':cry:')
    Crying or Very sad.
    might get ther act together by 2010 if we are lucky
    need any 5th columunist's for the coup?