Ahmadinejad in Trouble ?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by tomahawk6, Dec 6, 2006.

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  1. The Iranian parliament is working on a bill that would cut Ahmadinejad's term from 6 years to 5. There is also an anti-Ahmadinejad block led by Rafsanjani and Khatami. On the 15th of Dec there will be an election for the Assembly of Experts. If an anti-Ahmadinejad majority elected this will serve to curb his more radical agenda.

  2. This is supposed to be good news?! :
  3. This is NOT good news. Kicking Old Ahmed out because he is not fanatical enough is hardly cause to celebrate. On the other hand if they kicked him out because he was too much of a fundamentalist...now that would be good news.
  4. Am I to understand that there is a faction in the iranian government that believes he's too moderate? This is the point where I become terrified.
  5. Anybody read Dinner Jackets letter to Bush wrote earlier this year.
    It will be online, sorry no link.
  6. I don't know a great deal about Iranian politics and so cannot comment on whether the criticism of Ahmedinejad on the Baztab website is related to the forthcoming election (on December 15) of the Assembly of Experts.

    It is true that there are radical fundamentalists who are more hardline than Ahmedinejad or Ayatollah Khamenei. Currently these fundamentalists are standing for election to the Assembly of Experts, and Khamenei is trying to put them on the back foot. If the fundamentalists took over the Assembly of Experts, it would not necessarily be a disaster for Ahmedinejad. As I understand it, it is essentially a group of clerics who have the right to choose the Supreme Guide (who would replace Khamenei) - but this may not happen for years. In any event, the fundamentalists are apparently wildly unpopular within Iran.

    More important are the forthcoming municipal elections, to be held on the same day. These are elections across Iran but foreign interest has been concentrated mainly on the fight in Tehran, which is a three-way battle between Ahmedinejad's faction, the reformists and the current mayor, Mohammed Qalibaf. The current prediction is that Qalibaf will most likely retain his seat.

    Having listened to various points of view, it seems that the outcome of these elections is unlikely to cause Ahmedinejad huge problems. The Americans and the Israelis have handed him foreign-policy victories on a plate, and he is still riding on the back of these successes.

    However, every Iranian you talk to will agree that the real problem in Iran right now is the economy. Inflation is growing and Ahmedinejad has been wasting government money furiously. This is more likely to cause Ahmedinejad problems in the medium- to long-term than anything else.
  7. Worse than that, he's now likely to be receiving the earnest attentions of GWB and his henchmen in the White House and London.

    He should remember that ancient Iranian saying about those supping with the Devil needing a very long spoon. Bush and Blair being those foreign devils....
  8. Could have fooled :wink:
  9. Gents,

    This is good news; Rafsanjani despite his religious garb is a politician of the realpolitik school. Khatami was humiliated by being blocked at every turn by the extremists in the Council of Guardians and other Government departments, led by Khamenei, but evidence suggests that he is a far more influential political player away from the field than when he occupied centre stage.

    You can't do much better than read Iran, Islam and Democracy - The Politics of Managing Change Second Edition by Ali M Ansari published by Chatham House, well worth picking up.
  10. i sometimes hope there may be a moderate faction to the republican party........................ we can dream i guess.
  11. I have always been of the opinion that the Election was fixed to get A-Bad in power by the extremist faction.
    Now he's too moderate.
    My Dream is a nightmare.