Afghanistan

#1
Having used the "search" facility here and also using google I can't fnd an answer, so I apologise in adv if this has been asked already.

Is there any indication to when British troops will be withdrawn from Afghanistan,or an end to the fighting? Some people I have talked to have said that it could go on for the next 5 to 10 years.

What are your thoughts?

Steve
 
#4
British Ambassador to AFGN on News 24 last night was talking in terms of at least another decade.

So any advances on 2018?
 
#5
My ears hear another 20 years, 2028+

The Chinese as well certainly expect NATO/UK/The Yanks to be there for a very long time - as a stablising influence
 
#6
steve3883 said:
Having used the "search" facility here and also using google I can't fnd an answer, so I apologise in adv if this has been asked already.

Is there any indication to when British troops will be withdrawn from Afghanistan,or an end to the fighting? Some people I have talked to have said that it could go on for the next 5 to 10 years.

What are your thoughts?

Steve
It would all depend upon the exit strategy. If we want to leave a stable, democratic and self-reliant Afghanistan it is beyond our direct influence. International aid, projects etc all come into play.

If however we just want to leave regardless then it will be whenever our government decides.

To give an honest and accurate answer would require a crystal ball.
 
#7
When I was there last year British KBR employees were talking about a 25 year contract to support operations there, (wonder how much thats going to cost the budget). So we might be there for a while yet.
 
#8
armchair_jihad said:
My ears hear another 20 years, 2028+

The Chinese as well certainly expect NATO/UK/The Yanks to be there for a very long time - as a stablising influence
I take your ears in relation to that part of the world seriously. So the bottom line is, until we can stop the Afghan Government being a corrupt shower of charlatans (Allegedly) we have an opium paste tar baby on our hands?

Wonderful.
 
#9
PartTimePongo said:
armchair_jihad said:
My ears hear another 20 years, 2028+

The Chinese as well certainly expect NATO/UK/The Yanks to be there for a very long time - as a stablising influence
I take your ears in relation to that part of the world seriously. So the bottom line is, until we can stop the Afghan Government being a corrupt shower of charlatans (Allegedly) we have an opium paste tar baby on our hands?

Wonderful.
PTP you may have missed this post I put in the Afghan thread

Afghanistan copper deposits worth $88 billion attract Chinese investors

In a dusty, windswept valley 20 miles southwest of Kabul there stands a cluster of derelict buildings, littered with shrapnel, shell casings and unexploded ordnance.

Yet this desolate, seemingly hopeless, place is the source of Afghanistan’s most recent chapter of violence – and possibly now of a brighter economic future...it is here that Afghanistan – with the help of British geologists and a Chinese mining company – will lay the foundations of a new economy in the next few weeks.

Somewhere beneath the valley’s floor lies one of the world’s biggest untapped copper deposits, estimated to be worth up to $88_billion (£44 billion) – more than double Afghanistan’s entire gross domestic product (GDP) in 2007. In November, a 30-year lease was sold to the China Metallurgical Group for $3 billion, making it the biggest foreign investment and private business venture in Afghanistan’s history. Last week the Afghan Government approved the contract, clearing the way for the revival of an industry that dates back to Alexander the Great.

“After ten to 12 years, Afghanistan’s people will have fair living standards,” declares Ibrahim Adel, the Minister of Mines, and one of the few optimists left in Kabul. “Afghanistan will not need to borrow or ask for any money.”

To put it in perspective, Aynak’s price tag equalled 20 per cent of all foreign aid to the country since 2001, and the annual royalties of $400 million represent 45 per cent of its state budget.

The obstacles are still formidable: security is negligible here and it will take five years to build the mine, as well as a power station, railway, schools and hospitals.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article3941656.ece

This is immensely positive and changes many dynamics, Chinese PMC (essentially rebranded PLA) will be in the region in volume working WITH our people. Similar mining deals are in the pipeline, plus the new rollouts of biofuel crops in Afghan priced at 4 times poppy…..there is a future there even now after so many fcuk ups.
 
#10
Thanks AJ

Now that is important, and puts a new complexion on things, I'm very sure the Chinese will not allow their investment to be screwed around with, and that goes from beating off assorted rif-raf , to telling the Afghan Government how things are going to work.

The British Ambassdor did also mention that wheat as biofuel will be an important cash crop in the region. Add Opium diverted to Opiate manufacture, and Afghanistan could well have a very bright future.

But it all depends on the Government. Assorted news pieces that feature on BBC monitoring from local media, point to a great deal of infighting amongst the politicians, from verbal to kinetic :(

But, as I always maintain, give the locals a full belly and cash on the hip come Friday night, and a lot of the dramas will disappear.

Any idea who the Chinese Mining companies are?
 
#11
PartTimePongo said:
But, as I always maintain, give the locals a full belly and cash on the hip come Friday night, and a lot of the dramas will disappear.

Any idea who the Chinese Mining companies are?
The Chinese Companies are Majors, but what is more important is who 'stands behind them' and 'who has cleared their path' if you get my drift. And whose offspring are shareholders.

Deals like this in such places as Afghan are green lit at the highest level and involve a great deal of long term strategic thinking and commitment for the whole Nation. Intervention and protection will have already been gamed.

Oh and the biofuel crop is GM modified Jatropha Curcas variants, wheat is just for food.

May Allah bless the commodity markets!
 
#12
Things are progressing, albeit slowly, in Afghanistan. I remember a few years back when people were referring to President Karzai as the mayor of Kabul. There was a recent article which suggested that Kabul now has control over 1/3 of the country. I think an estimate of another 5-10 years in Afghanistan is reasonable.
 
#14
blobmeister said:
We have been warned to expect 2014 min.
Crikey, quarter past eight? Sooner than I expected. Everyone should be back in Blighty by midnight. Bonus! :wink:
 
#16
Ive a heard a question like this before...

"When, will I? Will I be famous?"
 
#17
If they built some decent long distance roads the country would be less factionalised and easier to govern. When the railroads arrived in the 19th century many countries around the world became easier to govern and self governing tribalism/fiefdoms became significantly reduced, even in the UK. Maybe the minerals industry will bring this ?
 
#18
Recruiting_Office_reject said:
If they built some decent long distance roads the country would be less factionalised and easier to govern. When the railroads arrived in the 19th century many countries around the world became easier to govern and self governing tribalism/fiefdoms became significantly reduced, even in the UK. Maybe the minerals industry will bring this ?
Amazingly enough in the 'Western Aid world' road building is very unfashionable, probably because it’s so quantifiable and only needs engineers not earnest young things with third rate degrees in non subjects. It also does not involve setting up a ‘community radio/TV station / journalism course/gender awareness workshop’ hence is no value whatsoever to peoples career plans.

Anyone normal including 99% of non Talib Afghans expected the International 'reconstruction' to mainly start with roads, roads and more roads, what they got was something much more expensive and infinitely more intangible. And useless.

One of the many reasons why the Afghans are welcoming the Chinese is because they WILL get roads – big fcuk off ones made to last, and they won’t get patronising hordes of ‘gap year’ idealists attempting (at our expense) to imprint a Guardianista version of reality on a 14th Century Society.
 
#19
Recruiting_Office_reject said:
If they built some decent long distance roads the country would be less factionalised and easier to govern. When the railroads arrived in the 19th century many countries around the world became easier to govern and self governing tribalism/fiefdoms became significantly reduced, even in the UK. Maybe the minerals industry will bring this ?
The Romans 2 thousands years ago knew it pretty well. They began namely with roads to make captured territories easier to govern.
 
Z

Zarathustra

Guest
#20
Recruiting_Office_reject said:
If they built some decent long distance roads the country would be less factionalised and easier to govern. When the railroads arrived in the 19th century many countries around the world became easier to govern and self governing tribalism/fiefdoms became significantly reduced, even in the UK. Maybe the minerals industry will bring this ?
Is this not one of the major problems with finishing the Kajaki dam? The second turbine is too big to be air lifted in. So, until there is a suitable road network they can't finish the dam, but they can't finish the roads until the security situation improves.
 

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