AFGHANISTAN 2021:. THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT

Now things are getting interesting! Some good disinformation (from one source or another). I'd be surprised if the Chinese were to put military boots into Afghanistan, but they do need a secure facility to work from as they dismantle the country's mineral wealth.

'China is currently conducting a feasibility study into sending workers, soldiers and other staff related to its foreign economic investment program, the Belt and Road Initiative, to Bagram airfield, USN reported Wednesday.

'Citing a source briefed on the study by Chinese military officials, who spoke to US News on condition of anonymity, the consideration in Beijing is not for any pending movements, rather a potential deployment as long as two years from now.

'However, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Tuesday issued a denial of plans for a takeover of the military airfield, which is about an hour from Kabul.

'Bagram air base was first established by the Soviets during their occupation in Afghanistan and was then used by the US.

“What I can tell everyone is that that is a piece of purely false information,” Wang Wenbin told reporters Tuesday morning.'



Y' know - I'm embarrassed to say, without Googling, that I don't know what faction the local landlord (Baba Jan?) is - Pashtun, Tajik/Northern Alliance?
Back in 2002 the narrow road leading to Kabul was extensively mined on both sides and the abandoned T55 on Disney Drive had it's barrel pointing straight down that road. His lads and armoury were happily in his compound and, as far as I know, he was getting a large wad for keeping it so and leasing it to the US and friends.

I imagine China will have some contingency plan for its occupation.
Whether they're actively putting it into effect, or even why they should need to may be an interesting indicator of how things develop.
Where are all the mineral exploitation areas in relation to Bagram - nearby? I thought China would need roads rather than an airfield to move them (unless it's cheaper to process them in country - any Lithium/Copper extraction SME's on Arrse?)
 
Y' know - I'm embarrassed to say, without Googling, that I don't know what faction the local landlord (Baba Jan?) is - Pashtun, Tajik/Northern Alliance?
Back in 2002 the narrow road leading to Kabul was extensively mined on both sides and the abandoned T55 on Disney Drive had it's barrel pointing straight down that road. His lads and armoury were happily in his compound and, as far as I know, he was getting a large wad for keeping it so and leasing it to the US and friends.

I imagine China will have some contingency plan for its occupation.
Whether they're actively putting it into effect, or even why they should need to may be an interesting indicator of how things develop.
Where are all the mineral exploitation areas in relation to Bagram - nearby? I thought China would need roads rather than an airfield to move them (unless it's cheaper to process them in country - any Lithium/Copper extraction SME's on Arrse?)

I think there's enough close by, if the Chinese could 'square the circle' of operating out of the hated foreigner base of Bagram. Also, get your road connection from China (whether or not via Pakistan) to a relatively close secure base first, and then keep expanding west.

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I think there's enough close by, it the Chinese could 'square the circle' of operating out of the hated foreigner base of Bagram. Also, get your road connection from China (whether or not via Pakistan) to a relatively close secure base first, and then keep expanding west.

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Their are two massive issues regarding the vast Afghan mineral wealth, which is still there for very good reasons, apart from the psycho locals who own it and live on top of it.
Firstly, mining is very resources intensive, and messy. It makes a big hole in the ground, which annoys the locals living on top of it, and consumes a huge amount of water, which the locals don't have.
Secondly, the processing is energy intensive. You can do it on site, which requires an energy generation and distribution system the locals don't have, or move ore by train or lorry, over roads and rails the locals don't have, to somewhere that can process it.
@terminal appears to be a mining expert.
 
Secondly, the processing is energy intensive. You can do it on site, which requires an energy generation and distribution system the locals don't have, or move ore by train or lorry, over roads and rails the locals don't have, to somewhere that can process it.
Northern Xinjiang has been a centre for resource processing since the 1930s and thanks to the heavy Soviet influence pre-war the transport infrastructure through Tajikistan is well-established.

It helps that Sino-Tajik commercial relations are generally good and since the Tajiks would doubtless be glad to take a cut it would make sense to get the stuff out of Afghanistan by the shortest viable route rather than wend it's way to the PRC border with its narrow MSR.
 
Northern Xinjiang has been a centre for resource processing since the 1930s and thanks to the heavy Soviet influence pre-war the transport infrastructure through Tajikistan is well-established.

It helps that Sino-Tajik commercial relations are generally good and since the Tajiks would doubtless be glad to take a cut it would make sense to get the stuff out of Afghanistan by the shortest viable route rather than wend it's way to the PRC border with its narrow MSR.
Is that the same Xinjiang that is home to the grossly oppressed Uighur fellow Muslims to the Taliban, and one of the most polluted places in China?
 
Is that the same Xinjiang that is home to the grossly oppressed Uighur fellow Muslims to the Taliban, and one of the most polluted places in China?
The same XInjiang that's home to a wide variety of Turkic types, where the north-south economic divide is greater within ethnicities than it is between ethnicities in the province as a whole. It's no coincidence that the Uighurs who've left Xinjiang and made a go of things elsewhere in the PRC tend to come from there.

It's also no coincidence that the majority of what would be undisputedly called terrorism if it happened anywhere else occurs in and originates from the southern region around Kashgar.

Do you think there might be any connection between decades of murder and a security crackdown?
 

Strait_Jacket

War Hero
Now things are getting interesting! Some good disinformation (from one source or another). I'd be surprised if the Chinese were to put military boots into Afghanistan, but they do need a secure facility to work from as they dismantle the country's mineral wealth.

'China is currently conducting a feasibility study into sending workers, soldiers and other staff related to its foreign economic investment program, the Belt and Road Initiative, to Bagram airfield, USN reported Wednesday.

'Citing a source briefed on the study by Chinese military officials, who spoke to US News on condition of anonymity, the consideration in Beijing is not for any pending movements, rather a potential deployment as long as two years from now.

'However, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Tuesday issued a denial of plans for a takeover of the military airfield, which is about an hour from Kabul.

'Bagram air base was first established by the Soviets during their occupation in Afghanistan and was then used by the US.

“What I can tell everyone is that that is a piece of purely false information,” Wang Wenbin told reporters Tuesday morning.'


And Xi told Obama that China wouldn’t militarise artificial islands in the SCS..

PLA operating from Bagram would scupper the new ‘strategy’ of dealing with training camps et al. by drone and SF.

Chinese air-cover gives the Taliban what Russian basing gave Assad, regime security from outright overthrow by western or western-proxy intervention.

Contiguous PLA-friendly forces from the Persian Gulf to Indian Kashmir is also an interesting geo-strategic development. India will be thrilled.
 
The same XInjiang that's home to a wide variety of Turkic types, where the north-south economic divide is greater within ethnicities than it is between ethnicities in the province as a whole. It's no coincidence that the Uighurs who've left Xinjiang and made a go of things elsewhere in the PRC tend to come from there.

It's also no coincidence that the majority of what would be undisputedly called terrorism if it happened anywhere else occurs in and originates from the southern region around Kashgar.

Do you think there might be any connection between decades of murder and a security crackdown?

"Security crackdown" sounds so much more acceptable than, "ethnic cleansing". :rolleyes:
 
"Security crackdown" sounds so much more acceptable than, "ethnic cleansing". :rolleyes:
Where are the Uighurs being moved to? Xinjiang, isn't it?

Wait, wasn't that where they came from?
 
How do you say, "Work Shall Set You Free" in Mandarin?
No idea, but, "Would you kindly stop murdering our women and kids?" is "請別屠殺我們的母子?"

1631136965567.png
 
Their are two massive issues regarding the vast Afghan mineral wealth, which is still there for very good reasons, apart from the psycho locals who own it and live on top of it.
Firstly, mining is very resources intensive, and messy. It makes a big hole in the ground, which annoys the locals living on top of it, and consumes a huge amount of water, which the locals don't have.
Secondly, the processing is energy intensive. You can do it on site, which requires an energy generation and distribution system the locals don't have, or move ore by train or lorry, over roads and rails the locals don't have, to somewhere that can process it.
@terminal appears to be a mining expert.
I would take stories of Afghan mineral wealth with a grain of salt. A lot of them don't distinguish between "resources" and "reserves". The former is the presence of minerals, the latter refers to stuff that is actually profitable to mine, otherwise known as "ore". Reserves are generally a fraction of resources.

I would take any American reports of the mineral wealth of Afghanistan with a very large grain of salt. These will be pure propaganda to try to bribe the Afghans with their own money. The Americans have a record of inventing fictitious geological reports which they wave around to tell the inhabitants that they could be immensely wealthy if only they would let the Americans dictate how their government operates. They did the same in Iraq when they created reports of fictitious oil reserves in western Iraq in order to try to persuade the local inhabitants to quiet down.

So far as I am aware, the main ore deposits that are of interest are copper deposits. These are believed to be large enough to provide for a profitable mining industry on an economically significant scale. Given the presence of gold in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, there may be significant gold deposits in Afghanistan as well, but that would take more exploration. They do produce gemstones, but this is a small scale industry of only local importance.

The main problems for a mining company though are:
  • Large mines require huge long term investments, and the country is noted for its violence and political instability.
  • Roads, railways, and electricity supplies are poorly developed.
  • Skilled manpower is in limited supply.
  • The country is far from ports, raising transportation costs to international markets.

Their best transportation links are probably northwards to the rest of Central Asia, who inherited a comprehensive transportation system from the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union. From there ore concentrate can reach markets via either Russia or China.

Southwards through Pakistan goes through some of the most unstable territory, and links westwards through Iran are limited. Both of these are therefore less attractive.

Given the amount of money involved, and given how there were mining companies who in the past were equally willing to stomach the risk of doing business in unstable parts of Africa, I wouldn't rule out the possibility however. It will though require a government in Kabul who are prepared to provide the necessary security, and a mining company and banks who can tell the Americans to go f*ck themselves when they inevitably try to gain leverage over Afghanistan through "sanctions" on mining companies and banks who finance them.
 
No idea, but, "Would you kindly stop murdering our women and kids?" is "請別屠殺我們的母子?"

View attachment 602733

Given that China is responsible for a pandemic that killed more British citizens than the Luftwaffe managed during the Blitz, maybe it's time we rounded up all Chinese living here and forced them into Totally Not Concentration Camps, Honest. After all, the precedent has already been set by the Kung Flu Pandas themselves.
 
Given that China is responsible for a pandemic that killed more British citizens than the Luftwaffe managed during the Blitz, maybe it's time we rounded up all Chinese living here and forced them into Totally Not Concentration Camps, Honest. After all, the precedent has already been set by the Kung Flu Pandas themselves.
'Coz that's the same thing entirely. No, really.
 
Of course not. Kung Flu is a far more serious crime. By orders of magnitude.
Than planting bombs or hacking your neighbours to bits?

Of course it is.
 
I would take stories of Afghan mineral wealth with a grain of salt. A lot of them don't distinguish between "resources" and "reserves". The former is the presence of minerals, the latter refers to stuff that is actually profitable to mine, otherwise known as "ore". Reserves are generally a fraction of resources.

I would take any American reports of the mineral wealth of Afghanistan with a very large grain of salt. These will be pure propaganda to try to bribe the Afghans with their own money. The Americans have a record of inventing fictitious geological reports which they wave around to tell the inhabitants that they could be immensely wealthy if only they would let the Americans dictate how their government operates. They did the same in Iraq when they created reports of fictitious oil reserves in western Iraq in order to try to persuade the local inhabitants to quiet down.

So far as I am aware, the main ore deposits that are of interest are copper deposits. These are believed to be large enough to provide for a profitable mining industry on an economically significant scale. Given the presence of gold in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, there may be significant gold deposits in Afghanistan as well, but that would take more exploration. They do produce gemstones, but this is a small scale industry of only local importance.

The main problems for a mining company though are:
  • Large mines require huge long term investments, and the country is noted for its violence and political instability.
  • Roads, railways, and electricity supplies are poorly developed.
  • Skilled manpower is in limited supply.
  • The country is far from ports, raising transportation costs to international markets.

Their best transportation links are probably northwards to the rest of Central Asia, who inherited a comprehensive transportation system from the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union. From there ore concentrate can reach markets via either Russia or China.

Southwards through Pakistan goes through some of the most unstable territory, and links westwards through Iran are limited. Both of these are therefore less attractive.

Given the amount of money involved, and given how there were mining companies who in the past were equally willing to stomach the risk of doing business in unstable parts of Africa, I wouldn't rule out the possibility however. It will though require a government in Kabul who are prepared to provide the necessary security, and a mining company and banks who can tell the Americans to go f*ck themselves when they inevitably try to gain leverage over Afghanistan through "sanctions" on mining companies and banks who finance them.
And 15-20 years of political stability to start seeing a return on investment, which just isn't going to happen there.
 
... to harvest their organs.
The Uighur should have no problems finding jobs in the medical industry, with such finely honed surgical skills. Unless, of course, they were just laying randomly into their neighbours with sharpened strips of metal?

Don't try to pretend that if your Abos had kicked off like this in downtown Darwin, they'd have been handled with kid gloves.


Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.
 
Don't try to pretend that if your Abos had kicked off like this in downtown Darwin, they'd have been handled with kid gloves.


Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.

Wong again, as usual. Try picking another country for where I live, and where you can do some more whataboutery.
 

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