AFGHANISTAN 2021:. THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT

@Bad CO @Good CO
This thread is in response to requests for the 'Afghan Fighting' thread to be locked having run its course culminating in the withdrawal.

Obviously, the reverberations, repercussions and long term effects as a result are a whole new scenario where there are some known knowns... and a lot more speculation, opinion and guessing (unfortunately).

As suggested by the above threads originator @Steamboat - maybe starting 1st Sept, near enough the catastrophic events of 9/11 20 years ago which had brought us to this point.

China's ambitions.
Taliban v.2 (Legitimate Government in a recognised 'Western' sense? - or a para NSA like Hamas, Hezbollah Iranian IRGC?)
Iran.
Pakistan.
Qatar and Al Jazeera getting their social message out to their Islamic diaspora in the western world.
Turkey - Erdogans ambitions to establish Ottoman Empire 2 - will that work with Arabs and Persian involvement?
Russia?
The future reach of the US? Whether Biden, Harris, Democrat or Republican and with that, the future role of NATO and likely foreign Interventions against militant Islam (Africa?)

Would Afghan Commandos evacuated have a role here? How about as counter narcotic operatives?
And what of the rest, how will they be integrated? Who are they? Pashtuns or Dari speakers - both? Where will their loyalties lie?

I tagged a few names in a similar post in Afghan fighting.
As usual there's some good info but maybe we need a new thread to focus on the future effects.
 
Well it does seem the older millennials are starting to really call out leadership over across the pond. It is an interesting day when field grades are publicly calling out the boomers. I do believe we are going to see some massive changes to American foreign policy when the Snowflakes throw the older generation into the tar pit.
 
Do do we have any hard facts on who's likely to recognise the Talibans appointees as the Government and Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as a nation yet?

Presumably Qatar will what with the Doha agreements? So that tiny State has got world prominence due to being an arbiter if Islamic opinion - not to mention their world renowned footballing prowess. There's a good focal point for spreading your word to the masses btw.

If I'm not mistaken though, non Pashtun speaking Afghans want to continue the fight. Will they have any success? - because right now I suspect the stupidest thing the US could do would be to offer any kind of covert support or interfere in that country.

I think China has shown enthusiasm for a settled Afghanistan - and why wouldn't they. It's very much in their interest.
Except they have a little trouble with their Uighurs - haven't they hinted that, being of similar background to non Pashtuns, they're not going to intercede in any Pashtun violence towards inter Afghan sectarianism? @smartascarrots - can you clarify anything here?
 
Do do we have any hard facts on who's likely to recognise the Talibans appointees as the Government and Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as a nation yet?


At least one NATO member.

'Turkey and Qatar will jointly operate the Kabul international airport, with Ankara providing security through a private firm, according to a draft deal with the Taliban in Afghanistan, two sources familiar with the issue told Middle East Eye (MEE) on Saturday. The draft deal will be finalised after the US withdrawal is completed next week.

'Erdogan said in televised remarks on Friday that the Taliban had offered Turkey the opportunity to run the airport, but continued to insist on providing security with its own fighters. However, both sides have now cut a draft deal that could resolve the issue. The main points of the draft deal include:

  • Turkey recognising the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan
  • Turkey and Qatar operating the airport in a consortium
  • Ankara providing security through a private firm, whose staff will consist of former Turkish soldiers and police
  • That additional members of the Turkish special forces, operating in plainclothes to secure Turkish technical staff, do not leave the airport perimeter.
'Turkey continues to keep its embassy in Kabul open and hasn't evacuated the core of its diplomatic staff, including the ambassador.'

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/...ZlmwUDVSxJM-1630288596-0-gqNtZGzNAzujcnBszQol
 
@Cable_Ties

Exactly the kind of valid and relevant post.

If, as seems likely, Turkey maintains the HKIA airlink to the world, presumably with Afghan experienced personnel, ergo, ex Turkish military (western style PMC - or non uniformed, unarmed, onside facilitators to the Taliban? - I'll bet the latter).
Turkey won't be representing any NATO interest over there only their own national interest.
I don't know if there's any competition between Qatar Airlines and Emirates - they're getting quite a good global grip of air travel - one for the airline savvy to comment on @Albertous?

So, there's Turkey, nicely situated at the western end of the Silk Road and able to monitor trade etc with an end to end eye on who and what moves.

ETA. ISTR A rough brief back in 2002, the Turks were being given notional command of ISAF in Kabul - except they didn't really have good enough 3C or whatever.
The Germans, diplomatically, sorted that as a face saver - whilst also reeling in some Turkish command who had previous for getting very rough with their Kurdish minorities.
 
Last edited:
Except they have a little trouble with their Uighurs - haven't they hinted that, being of similar background to non Pashtuns, they're not going to intercede in any Pashtun violence towards inter Afghan sectarianism? @smartascarrots - can you clarify anything here?
The Taliban were swift to announce that they wouldn't allow their territory to be used by Uighur militants and that they'd come down hard on anyone attacking welcome foreign interests (which for the greatest part means Chinese).

The PRC, like most of the neighbouring countries, has small minorities of the main Afghan ethnic groups and that plus sharing borders has meant they've always kept contact with the main players in Afghanistan. It was one of the reasons they were able to support the anti-Soviet groups back in the 80s: they had personnel with the language and cultural skills to negotiate local politics.

For now, they're happy with the US departing their western border with an embarrassingly bloody nose, leaving them to reap the rewards in terms of trade deals and mineral rights. The biggest carrot they're dangling is incorporation into the China-Pakistan trade agreement, an offshoot of 1B1R which promises a lot of money and patronage to whoever is in charge of distributing largess throughout Afghanistan. I guess that now means Pashtuns.
 
Would it be true to surmise any politician/bleeding heart pleading the Afghan rebels cause is being extremely naive?
If you mean those brave Afghan freedom fighters we ran out on, it wouldn't surprise me if some covert assistance was being organised to help pointlessly extend the war carry on the good fight.

No doubt someone is down the CIA archive.dusting off the Op Cyclone file as we speak.
 

Yokel

LE
I worry what the impact will be on the likes of Putin, Xi, the Iranian, Mullah, and piss pot dictators like Saddam or Gaddafi. Do they now see the West as being unsure of its values and unwilling to use force to defend them?
 
The Taliban now own a bankrupt narco state awash with weapons, and a starving population.
I doubt you will see another civil war, just tens of thousands voting with their feet, crossing into neighbouring countries and perpetual tribal warlordism.
 
The Taliban now own a bankrupt narco state awash with weapons, and a starving population.
I doubt you will see another civil war, just tens of thousands voting with their feet, crossing into neighbouring countries and perpetual tribal warlordism.

Doubt China has much understanding of providing jobs and an economy to help change that.
A question is - do they continue factional fighting or flee pleading refugee status.
I'm guessing China, Pakistan and other 'stans will attempt to keep them within their own borders whilst Iran and Turkey will play pass the Pashtun on thereby continuing to make it Europes/the Wests problem.

What's the water and agricultural situation like? (apart from for growing poppy)
 
The Taliban now own a bankrupt narco state awash with weapons, and a starving population.
I doubt you will see another civil war, just tens of thousands voting with their feet, crossing into neighbouring countries and perpetual tribal warlordism.
aka a return to 'Afghan normality' now the external invaders have been booted out.

Oh and 'perpetual tribal warlordism' is civil war.
 
Doubt China has much understanding of providing jobs and an economy to help change that.
A question is - do they continue factional fighting or flee pleading refugee status.
I'm guessing China, Pakistan and other 'stans will attempt to keep them within their own borders whilst Iran and Turkey will play pass the Pashtun on thereby continuing to make it Europes/the Wests problem.

What's the water and agricultural situation like? (apart from for growing poppy)
Permadrought and starvation. Drought threatens the livelihoods of 7 million farmers in Afghanistan - Afghanistan
 
aka a return to 'Afghan normality' now the external invaders have been booted out.

Oh and 'perpetual tribal warlordism' is civil war.
Nah. Civil war is when you have at least two partial governments squabbling over legitimancy.
Warlordism is just lawless anarchy.
 
@Cable_Ties

Exactly the kind of valid and relevant post.

If, as seems likely, Turkey maintains the HKIA airlink to the world, presumably with Afghan experienced personnel, ergo, ex Turkish military (western style PMC - or non uniformed, unarmed, onside facilitators to the Taliban? - I'll bet the latter).
Turkey won't be representing any NATO interest over there only their own national interest.
I don't know if there's any competition between Qatar Airlines and Emirates - they're getting quite a good global grip of air travel - one for the airline savvy to comment on @Albertous?

So, there's Turkey, nicely situated at the western end of the Silk Road and able to monitor trade etc with an end to end eye on who and what moves.

ETA. ISTR A rough brief back in 2002, the Turks were being given notional command of ISAF in Kabul - except they didn't really have good enough 3C or whatever.
The Germans, diplomatically, sorted that as a face saver - whilst also reeling in some Turkish command who had previous for getting very rough with their Kurdish minorities.
Qatar Airlines and Emirates are starting to dominate due to the quality of cabins and customer experience (read in that legroom, totty, food and drinks) unlike most other major carriers who seem to cram as many people as possible into the smallest cabin they can and offer little in the way of decent food or free drinks.

As for competition between the two, they don't really need to at the moment unless one wants to eat up the other as one has Hamad airport as is major hub the other Dubia both of which are ideally placed modern airports for worldwide transportation.
 
@Bad CO @Good CO
This thread is in response to requests for the 'Afghan Fighting' thread to be locked having run its course culminating in the withdrawal.

Obviously, the reverberations, repercussions and long term effects as a result are a whole new scenario where there are some known knowns... and a lot more speculation, opinion and guessing (unfortunately).

As suggested by the above threads originator @Steamboat - maybe starting 1st Sept, near enough the catastrophic events of 9/11 20 years ago which had brought us to this point.

China's ambitions.
Taliban v.2 (Legitimate Government in a recognised 'Western' sense? - or a para NSA like Hamas, Hezbollah Iranian IRGC?)
Iran.
Pakistan.
Qatar and Al Jazeera getting their social message out to their Islamic diaspora in the western world.
Turkey - Erdogans ambitions to establish Ottoman Empire 2 - will that work with Arabs and Persian involvement?
Russia?
The future reach of the US? Whether Biden, Harris, Democrat or Republican and with that, the future role of NATO and likely foreign Interventions against militant Islam (Africa?)

Would Afghan Commandos evacuated have a role here? How about as counter narcotic operatives?
And what of the rest, how will they be integrated? Who are they? Pashtuns or Dari speakers - both? Where will their loyalties lie?

I tagged a few names in a similar post in Afghan fighting.
As usual there's some good info but maybe we need a new thread to focus on the future effects.
China is just pleased to have its distant flank a little more secure and now absent an American presence. Because Taiwan is pretty clearly the big show and with the current US President and military chiefs its just a matter of when and how, rather than if.
 
The warlords are 'partial governments'
Nah.
Just armed thugs with war bands made up of tribal allies. They fought under the Taliban banner to get rid of the Westerners and their puppet government, and there may be few players from the last recognised Taliban government that stupidly hosted Osama BL and got thrashed for it, but the core of the modern Taliban are tribal warlords, like the Haqqanis who want their rewards and a lot of Pakistani foot soldiers who will want a slice of the loot.
There's more interest in paying back blood debts, securing the heroin routes, grabbing as much of the weaponry as possible. Rape and pillage is much more fun than tedious government.
 
Qatar Airlines and Emirates are starting to dominate due to the quality of cabins and customer experience (read in that legroom, totty, food and drinks) unlike most other major carriers who seem to cram as many people as possible into the smallest cabin they can and offer little in the way of decent food or free drinks.

As for competition between the two, they don't really need to at the moment unless one wants to eat up the other as one has Hamad airport as is major hub the other Dubia both of which are ideally placed modern airports for worldwide transportation.

When you say 'starting to dominate' are you talking regionally (across Asia?) or globally?
I doubt such airlines are troubled by fuel supply guarantees or have as high a security premium as say El Al and western airlines.

How much of the airline industry have they got and what sort of advantage does this give them? I can't see Kabul having much traffic for a long time - or becoming a stopover.
 
When you say 'starting to dominate' are you talking regionally (across Asia?) or globally?
I doubt such airlines are troubled by fuel supply guarantees or have as high a security premium as say El Al and western airlines.

How much of the airline industry have they got and what sort of advantage does this give them? I can't see Kabul having much traffic for a long time - or becoming a stopover.
Globally for long distance travel except from the Americas. Not sure of the number of airframes each one has. I will look it up later.
 
Top