Afghan fighting - the latest reports.

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Britain’s top general, Sir Nick Carter, has been using his personal connections with Afghan and Pakistan leaders in a behind-the-scenes effort to stop Afghanistan sliding into full-blown civil war, and help bolster stalling US-brokered peace talks

Well with his track record what can possibly go wrong.
 
Britain’s top general, Sir Nick Carter, has been using his personal connections with Afghan and Pakistan leaders in a behind-the-scenes effort to stop Afghanistan sliding into full-blown civil war, and help bolster stalling US-brokered peace talks


Just need Tony Blair to turn up as peace envoy now and then it really will be game over
 
There must be money to be made somewhere
I bet somebody is creaming it in
Al Jazeera this morning reported Pakistan has built a 2600 mile border fence, complete with military patrols, bunkers, cctv and drones. In doing so its stopped cross border smuggling, with all movement of goods or people only allowed at official, manned, border crossing points.
Illegal smuggling stopped, legit trade rises.
 
Surprise surprise. And Pakistan formerly so enthusiastic a supporter...when it suited them.

For over 20 years Senior members of Pakistan’s security establishment suported the Taliban in the Afghan war.

Now however with the Taliban spreading rapidly throughoutAfghanistanand about to seize power, a sea change is spreading through Pakistans establishment

Ever since the 2001 U.S. invasion ousted the Taliban control in Kabul, Pakistan’s military secretly provided carefully calibrated support to the group, allowing Afghan insurgents to operate from its territory.

Pakistan wanted to bolster the Taliban as a counter to the influence India in Afghanistan and to control a proxy there after a U.S. departure. The Taliban may have other plans, Pakistan now realising that.

 
Of interest this week, the next phase starts up:

Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting of Foreign Ministers on Wednesday in Dushanbe, the Tajik capital, may have been an under-the-radar affair, but it did reveal the contours of the big picture ahead when it comes to Afghanistan.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi laid out the basic road map to his Afghan counterpart Mohammad Haneef Atmar. While stressing the Chinese foreign policy gold standard – no interference in internal affairs of friendly nations – Wang established three priorities:

1. Real inter-Afghan negotiations towards national reconciliation and a durable political solution, thus preventing all-out civil war. Beijing is ready to “facilitate” dialogue.
2. Fighting terror – which means, in practice, al-Qaeda remnants, ISIS-Khorasan and the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). Afghanistan should not be a haven for terrorist outfits – again.
3. The Taliban, for their part, should pledge a clean break with every terrorist outfit.
Overall, the official Beijing stance is that all negotiations should be “Afghan-owned and Afghan-led.”

The main Russian point is that Kabul and the Taliban should try to form a provisional coalition government for the next 2-3 years while they negotiate a permanent agreement. Talk about a Sisyphean task – and that’s an understatement. The Russians know very well that both sides won’t restart negotiations before September.

Another very important point is that once “substantive” intra-Afghan negotiations resume, a mechanism should be launched to clear the Taliban of UN Security Council sanctions.

This will mean the normalization of the Taliban as a political movement. Considering their current diplomatic drive, the Taliban do have their eyes on the ball. So the Russian warning that they should not become a security threat to any of the Central Asian “stans” or there will be “consequences” has been fully understood.

And as an indicator of the Talibans maturity these days:

Four of the five “stans” (Turkmenistan is the exception) are SCO members......the Taliban have sent a diplomatic mission to Turkmenistan to ease its fears.


Source


Note the author Pepe is rabidly anti US but does get good material from Moscow and on occasion from Beijing
 
Well, as it's Eid al-Adha (The festival of slaughter), someone decided this morning to pop a couple of rockets into, or very close to, the Presidential Palace targeting Eid prayers. You gotta love 'em.

 
Well, as it's Eid al-Adha (The festival of slaughter),
Since you mentioned it, and in any case I'd have to trawl my hard drive for the detail of the associated Saint, the eleventh of November - Armistice or Remembrance Day, lately - was also marked in the 'old church' calendar as "The Feast Of The Slaughter" (inherited, I suspect, from the Angle/Sason/Pagan/Danish/Viking calendars), because that was the late Autumn day on which meat was salted for the winter, chosen animals were set aside as the basis for next years herd/flock, and the community gorged itself on fresh meat for pretty much the last time before hunkering down for a grim existence without fresh food.

Modern people, on t'other hand, whinge when their internet connection's a bit flaky.
 
Modern people, on t'other hand, whinge when their internet connection's a bit flaky.
They wouldn't moan as much as the unsuspecting herds of beasts that I've witnessed these past few days amassing outside the roadside butchers in the worlds party capital. Either that or it was a goat harem.
 

Poppycock

War Hero
Taliban TV claim control of several more districts and two more border crossings in Herat province, one crossing to Iran and the other goes to one of the Stans

Looking at the speed of territory handover, this is going to be over quicker than a game of Risk

 
While we keep propping up the Mayors of Kabul, I see China is planning for the future

Embarrassing :-(

A few wrecked Chinese tanks to add to the collection at some point then...

Capture.PNG
 

Poppycock

War Hero
This must bite on morale - at least 26 insider attacks among Afghan forces in a 90-day period killed at least 81 people. Must be even worse than our green-on-blue casualties / fatalities (which did grind on your nerves a bit) because these are from within their own ranks.



This one stuck in my mind - 12 killed by poisoning - mostly because it happened the day after my dog was euthanised due to being poisoned.

 
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Poppycock

War Hero
A-Mucking-Fen to that.

They're a whole lot closer, and a shitload of conscripts bigger, than our army


So - good luck to them.​
They'll send engineers when things are stable

Stability will come with an Islamic government

Main threat will be from Daesh (a CIA / Saleh proxy in my book) as per the recent attacks on Chinese in Pakistan, but again I think the Taliban are the only ones capable of countering that threat.

They stopped poppy cultivation within a season & disarmed 95% of the population during their tenure so they are capable, as proved by their recent come back (actually more like a Bukkake all over NATO's face than just a proverbial military come back)

 
This must bite on morale - at least 26 insider attacks among Afghan forces in a 90-day period killed at least 81 people. Must be even worse than our green-on-blue casualties / fatalities (which did grind on your nerves a bit) because these are from within their own ranks.



This one stuck in my mind - 12 killed by poisoning - mostly because it happened the day after my dog was euthanised due to being poisoned.


Some more in the SIGAR report.

'The Afghan government faces an "existential crisis" after the Taliban doubled their attacks following the February 2020 US deal with the insurgents, a watchdog report said Thursday.

'The report said Taliban attacks on Afghan targets surged from 6,700 in the three months up to the Doha agreement to 13,242 in the September-November 2020 period. Attacks have stayed above 10,000 in each subsequent three-month period, according to the report by the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR). While the rise in attacks had long been clear, data had not previously been available to demonstrate how intense the rebels' offensive had become.

'The United States agreed to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan in expectation the Taliban would negotiate a peace deal with the Kabul government. Since then the Taliban-government talks have stalled but the US has steadily pulled out troops to a level of only several hundred now, with an August 31 deadline for full withdrawal.

'The SIGAR report makes clear that the Doha agreement, instead of propelling Taliban-Kabul talks, unleashed an offensive that caught government forces unprepared and increased the number of civilian deaths. Over January-March of 2020, there were only 510 civilian deaths and 709 casualties, the report said, quoting data from the US-Nato joint force in Afghanistan. After that the numbers surged, hitting 1,058 deaths and 1,959 injured in the third quarter that year and continuing at high levels. The latest data, for April and May this year, showed 705 civilian deaths and 1,330 casualties, the SIGAR report said.

"The overall trend is clearly unfavorable to the Afghan government, which could face an existential crisis if it isn't addressed and reversed," said the inspector general, John Sopko. He said the report offered a sobering picture that contrasted with "the pervasiveness of overoptimism" that characterized US-led efforts to rebuild and strengthen Afghanistan and the cost of hundreds of billions of dollars to the US government.

"The news coming out of Afghanistan this quarter has been bleak," the report said. Faced by a new Taliban offensive, it said, the Afghan government security force "appeared surprised and unready, and is now on its back foot. Particularly concerning was the speed and ease with which the Taliban seemingly wrested control of districts in Afghanistan’s northern provinces, once a bastion of anti-Taliban sentiment."


Taliban surge poses 'existential crisis': US watchdog - France 24
 
the Afghan government security force "appeared surprised and unready, and is now on its back foot. Particularly concerning was the speed and ease with which the Taliban seemingly wrested control of districts in Afghanistan’s northern provinces, once a bastion of anti-Taliban sentiment."
The Afghan 'government' was not/is not/never has been fit for purpose. The West has deluded itself in that regard for two decades.

That forces (nominally) loyal to such an institution are collapsing like a house of cards in a stiff breeze should, therefore, come as no surprise.

That a former "bastion of anti-Taliban sentiment" should turn coat and be such easy meat speaks loudly of how shallow are loyalties in that part of the world.

IMHO.
 
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