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Afghan fighting - the latest reports.

Poppycock

Old-Salt
Responsible Statecraft are basically a milder and slightly less mental version of Stop The War. They seem to think that foreigners suffering is only a problem if it can somehow be linked to US policy. The policy answer to every problem in the world is for the US to step back.
My jibe was aimed at the author of the article, Barnett Rubin. He is undoubtedly an Afghan expert as illustrated in his pre-9/11 interview on Charlie Rose's show with a Taliban / Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan envoy.


A more recent claim from Rubin is that 9/11 was planned in... Kuala Lumpur! I hope most on here will know/accept what utter bullshit that is. He appears to have an underlying agenda with his output these days - suggesting we just stay a bit longer to solve what we've not been able to solve in 19yrs struck me as insane.
 
suggesting we just stay a bit longer to solve what we've not been able to solve in 19yrs struck me as insane.
Indeed

If there's a 'solution' to be had, surely it has to be home-grown (fat chance, methinks)

I guess the real question is what happens if Unca Sam does a runner.
 

Poppycock

Old-Salt
I guess the real question is what happens if Unca Sam does a runner.
My guess is:

First implication will be that we are no longer propping up the thieving, drug running, murdering, raping terrorists who we put in charge (Dostum, Asadullah Khalid, Sayyaf, the Karzais, etc).

Second will be a civil War with a similar outcome to the 1990s and then a proxy battle between East, West & the bit in-between for greatest influence over the Taliban.

If there was a way to avoid the civil War then I think it would have been found, but there isn't, so the sooner we let it get started the sooner it'll be over (especially if we stop logistical support for the ANDSF too).
 
My guess is:

First implication will be that we are no longer propping up the thieving, drug running, murdering, raping terrorists who we put in charge (Dostum, Asadullah Khalid, Sayyaf, the Karzais, etc).

Second will be a civil War with a similar outcome to the 1990s and then a proxy battle between East, West & the bit in-between for greatest influence over the Taliban.

If there was a way to avoid the civil War then I think it would have been found, but there isn't, so the sooner we let it get started the sooner it'll be over (especially if we stop logistical support for the ANDSF too).
I don't remember typing that . . . so I think we may well be of one mind . . . . :wink:
 

Poppycock

Old-Salt
Yeah there's a right old ding dong going on Nimroz right now, meanwhile Helmand and Kandahar are still hotly contested and there's been some bother up in the old favourite, Kunduz.
Is the old "progress has been made but challenges remain" adage still applicable?

"A ******* shit show" does seem more appropriate seeing as it took 19years to achieve this level of.... shit show.
 

Caecilius

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
"A ******* shit show" does seem more appropriate seeing as it took 19years to achieve this level of.... shit show.

That a bit disingenuous given that this situation was preceded by a troop withdrawal that wasn't conditions based.


Is the old "progress has been made but challenges remain" adage still applicable?

This was true when progress had been made. Now things are going backwards, fast. Not that this comes as a surprise to anyone except some members of the Obama administration.
 

Poppycock

Old-Salt
Thread's been running for 14 years

I'll wager that this current state of affairs was foreseen herein, within 2 years of its launch.
If not earlier.

This is an interesting comparison: watch this video, but every time the narrator says "Vietnam" shout "AFGHANISTAN!". It fits in very well.
 

Poppycock

Old-Salt
Breaking news from Afghanistan on the BBC World Service: BBC News - 14/01/2021 16:01 GMT - BBC Sounds

The number 39 is to be removed from car number plates because it's considered unlucky... details at 3mins 50secs in the link above

I shit you not, 19yrs of invasion, occupation and all the shit that's going on there now and the only mention it gets on the BBC is a pissy story about the number 39. Wear your medals with pride fellas... :-D
 

Poppycock

Old-Salt
This looks devastating - a massive IED followed by secondary attackers against an NDS base near Kandahar today

Taliban have claimed it as their work

 

Poppycock

Old-Salt
It was pretty devastating but a low casualty count.
It's hard to keep track of the casualty count from here, especially given that any journalist reporting them is likely to get a sticky bomb attached to themselves for doing just that

Who do you think is behind the killing of 2-female judges in Kabul today? I know which Saudi sponsored Wahhabi Warlord my money is on - the Father Christmas-walt pictured below, aka Abdul Rasul Sayyaf
sayyaf lord.jpg
 
I know which Saudi sponsored Wahhabi Warlord my money is on . .
Will Elon Musk's electric tech sever the ties that bind the West to the Saudis?

It is a truly perverse relationship that has "The most powerful nation on earth" utterly dependent on fuel from another nation whose Wahabi culture would prefer the USA laid low, but still wants the oil revenue .
.
 
Will Elon Musk's electric tech sever the ties that bind the West to the Saudis?

It is a truly perverse relationship that has "The most powerful nation on earth" utterly dependent on fuel from another nation whose Wahabi culture would prefer the USA laid low, but still wants the oil revenue .
.
I think they are going to be even more dependent as Biden said he is going to stop 'fracking' in the USA as part of his green credientials. Fracking meant that the USA was self sufficent in oil and wasn't dependent on the Middle East any longer.
 

Poppycock

Old-Salt
All back on again:

"International troops plan to stay in Afghanistan beyond the May deadline envisaged by the insurgent Taliban’s deal with the United States, four senior NATO officials said"

I can't see it changing the end result to be honest
 
All back on again:

"International troops plan to stay in Afghanistan beyond the May deadline envisaged by the insurgent Taliban’s deal with the United States, four senior NATO officials said"

I can't see it changing the end result to be honest
Nope. Concur. 110%.
 

Poppycock

Old-Salt
Good news from Afghanistan is usually hard to come by.

'No U.S. troops have died in combat in Afghanistan for a year as of Monday, but the Taliban have threatened to target them again if Washington opts to keep international forces in the country after a May withdrawal deadline.'

US goes one year without a combat death in Afghanistan as Taliban warn against reneging on peace deal
My measuring stick for good news from Afghanistan is whether it out weighs the significance of NATO now 'strongly supporting' Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, as per this screen shot:

sayyaf nato 22.png


For anyone that doesn't know, Sayyaf is a Saudi sponsored Wahhabi who employed, trained, mentored & supported Khalid Sheikh Mohammed - the man who engineered almost all of al Qaeda's major attacks, including 9/11. Sayyaf also sent the assassins to murder Ahmad Shah Massoud 2-days before 9/11 and just for good measure he has a Jihad terror group in the Philippines named after him - Abu Sayyaf.

So yes, it's great news that no US or other NATO forces have died in combat there for 12mths, but balanced against our alliance with Sayyaf which pisses all over everyones efforts of the last 19+ years, it does feel like a hollow achievement.

Essentially we took a 12mth hiatus from dying for a lost cause, but it's now looking like we might start again - start sending more young fools to died and be maimed on foreign fields that is
 

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